SouthCoastMA Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: DGEX jackpot up here every time. Miss that model, lol. The CRAS was another one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: DGEX jackpot up here every time. Miss that model, lol. Why doesn't anyone use the NAVGEM anymore? It's good enough for the Navy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Fuck it just wait a week. Tip doesn't get this one I want it NIce timing for the 48 year anniversary. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 25 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The CRAS was another one Ant used to pull all of these models out back in the nyc metro days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I think this baby's going to hit us, I have that 2015 feeling that storms will hit us, it wants to snow. I remember watching models in 2015 and a lot of the storms were too far east on the models and eventually by go time they came back for a hit. This one reminds me of 2015 model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, DavisStraight said: I think this baby's going to hit us, I have that 2015 feeling that storms will hit us, it wants to snow. I remember watching models in 2015 and a lot of the storms were too far east on the models and eventually by go time they came back for a hit. This one reminds me of 2015 model watching. Tonight I think it’s full OTS on operationals but ensembles only get marginally worse. Tomorrow night, thinfs will start to tick back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro scrapes the Cape/DE Maine. That’s why I still have some optimism. It wants to come north, and it wouldn’t be so surprising to see a trend West and into the Gulf of Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The WPC updated 3 to 7 day discussion and QPF and winter weather maps should keep some level of optimism in here particularly for eastern areas. What they are saying is that a strong storm is going to four and it’s going to come up the coast it’s just a matter of how close. Certainly it could say more out to see, but it is not at all uncommon for those things especially when they’re strong to just move a little closer and have expansive precipitation fields. A few inches to refresh would be very nice if it’s like if that’s all it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Why doesn't anyone use the NAVGEM anymore? It's good enough for the Navy!It is wide right tooSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just wants to snow....moderate snow currently, everything coated up again...18⁰ Maybe a good sign for this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 To keep it simple, the the takeaway for me is the 12z EPS/Euro were a slight improvement over 6z. If it trends in opposite direction again for 18z/0z - then I'll start to be concerned about a true whiff. I'm also on the Cape, so theres that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 This may be at least partial as an effective management tool for some ... WPC Extended Forecast Discussion The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes. In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint. However, the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said: Why doesn't anyone use the NAVGEM anymore? It's good enough for the Navy! Even the Navy doesn't really use it! Like most organizations, it's mainly Euro and Gufus... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Getting some light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Fisher mentions March of 2014... Cape storm with a lot of wind Gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gross That was a massive blue ball. IIRC it was a sub 960mb behemoth east of benchmark, which got the outer cape/ACK into warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Getting some light snow All coated up here with trucks back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gross Fisher lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The 13z NBM has a 12-18" mean contour for SE MA (looks similar to the map DIT posted). According to dat' link (https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf), snowfall values at 84hr+ are calculated from 30 GEFS members, 50 ECMWF members, and the GFS. Needless to say, some individual members still support this event. 12z GEFS fcst hr 138: 12z EPS fcst hr 138 (last available hour at the moment): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 ICON even worse. Basically no snow even for the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocean Effect Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: ICON even worse. Basically no snow even for the SE. ICON-EPS had a lot more where we want them to be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 37 minutes ago, FXWX said: Even the Navy doesn't really use it! Like most organizations, it's mainly Euro and Gufus... The last time it ran on TT was Nov 25th. I was hoping that model dropped dead, not sure if it's even still running. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Ocean Effect said: ICON-EPS had a lot more where we want them to be Yeah, it improved greatly actually. Lot of spread and members to the NW. Can't believe im looking at the Icon EPS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 28 minutes ago, FXWX said: All coated up here with trucks back out. They didn’t plow today until early afternoon after yesterday/ last night snows.. so roads still mainly snow . Steady light snow with a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah, it improved greatly actually. Lot of spread and members to the NW. Can't believe im looking at the Icon EPS. Lol yeah when I saw the response I went to the MA forum to check and thats a good cluster off of the DelMarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Igone 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah, it improved greatly actually. Lot of spread and members to the NW. Can't believe im looking at the Icon EPS. Too many models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: The last time it ran on TT was Nov 25th. I was hoping that model dropped dead, not sure if it's even still running. Ok Franklin Delano Romanowski 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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