February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[RevWarReenactor]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a legit threat.  Not all longwave patterns are created equal.  Not all -PNA's are created equal.  A -PNA pattern without any blocking and a scorched N America with no cold air anywhere is never going to work, and that is what we've had when we've had a -PNA most of the time lately.  

A -PNA with blocking and a N America covered in snow and cold air left over could possibly work.  Yes it will be a warmer pattern, yea any wave COULD end up rain...but at least there will be waves coming at us and room for them to amplify. 

Its weird how looking at storms that could be rain coming for us is way better than looking at temps in the teens with absolutely nothing. 

At least we have a shot. I don't think its a good one, but its a better one than suppression to North Carolina while my heating bill skyrockets. 

[stormy]

The Euro AI deterministic leads the way then drops it!  That was a crazy 06z call by the AI anyway.  I don't receive 11 inches of snow with a primary over Toledo! 

The deterministic GFS and EURO pick it up at 12z.    I like the EURO solution.  10 inches of snow with a primary to my south is much better than 11" with a primary 300 miles northwest.

[Heisy]

[GreyHat]

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6:40p after 18z Euro

Start it 3 or 4 days before the event. The way things have been going, looks great this far out then seems to fizzle out, go south or maybe north with some rain as the the cold retreats. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, Scraff said:

Nice! Let’s bring on the VD storm….says @ravensrule

I move that should this event actually turn into something real and a good snow event, that we name any thread for it "The Ravensrule VD Storm"!!!

[JenkinsJinkies]

Euro says “what warmup?”

 

[Ji]

Euro says “what warmup?”
 

Misleading map. Come on man

[Ji]

Misleading map. Come on man

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Misleading map. Come on man

If the relaxation isn’t enough to cancel out this weekend’s cold is it really that much of a warmup?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Euro says “what warmup?”

 

Check the dates.  Half of that period or so includes the upcoming cold temperatures expected late this week into Monday of next week.  Geez.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If the relaxation isn’t enough to cancel out this weekend’s cold is it really that much of a warmup?

The relaxation, however much it may be, doesn't really START until about the middle of next week.  It's from that period onward for however long it is.

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Check the dates.  Half of that period or so includes the upcoming cold temperatures expected late this week into Monday of next week.  Geez.

I know that, you’re misinterpreting the post. This shows that the euro thinks that the warmup will be muted like all the other ones this season. The map Ji posted shows us barely deviating from average temps in that period, some areas on the bay even being slightly below average.

[ravensrule]

20 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I move that should this event actually turn into something real and a good snow event, that we name any thread for it "The Ravensrule VD Storm"!!!

It definitely fits since it will be impossible to get rid of. 

[Climate175]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Chris78 @CAPE we did need the pattern to relax some... the amount of blocking we had along with the +PNA -EPO was causing extreme suppression.  The one significant precipitation event we've had in the last month came during a temporary -PNA.  

And this is not uncommon.  I've said before that when I looked at every single 5"+ Baltimore snowstorm the majority of them did not come in frigid arctic regimes.  And it becomes even more apparent if you just look at the 10"+ storms.  There are several reasons for this.  Big storms ride the thermal boundary and that means they are usually along the rain/snow line...not in the middle of an arctic airmass!  We have to be somewhat near the warmth to win OR there has to be a wave amplifying enough to press the warm boundary back towards us!   Waves don't amplify in a cold NW flow regime!  There are some rare examples of super cold storms, we got one last week, but it requires so many rare things to time up perfectly...if that is the only way we get big snowstorms we would be in big big trouble.  

A lot of our big snowstorms came during periods that weren't that cold.  Feb 83, Feb 87, Jan 2000, Feb 2006, Feb 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 2014, March 2015, Jan 2016 all came during periods that weren't arctic cold right around the time of the storm and most of them we even had to worry if it would even be cold enough!  Way way way more of our big snowstorms come during "just cold enough" regimes not during our craziest coldest arctic airmasses.  Those tend to be dry.  We can luck our way into a frontal wave or weaker snow...smaller snowstorms are more common in these cold periods...and we've been perhaps unlucky not to get at least some of those during this latest period...but our true big snowstorms usually come during less cold periods.  

What's been especially frustrating over the last 10 years is a lot of the patterns that historically would provide us with chances of snowstorms...not cold but should be "just cold enough with a good track" ended up just too warm and when a perfect track system came alone it ended up a perfect track rainstorm.  But that doesn't change the equation. It's been so long since we had a big region wide snowstorm during a pattern like Feb 2006 or Feb 2010 that it seems some are starting to think we need some big EPO/PNA ridge induced arctic airmass to get a big snowstorm but that's never been our typical path to a big snow.  Most of our big snowstorms came during blocking regimes with a split flow under it and no arctic air anywhere (no NS to FCK up the flow) and some juiced up STJ wave came along with the perfect track and it was just barely cold enough to snow.  

Wow, thanks for the insights! Well written and explained. I genuinely mean that too. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I know that, you’re misinterpreting the post. This shows that the euro thinks that the warmup will be muted like all the other ones this season. The map Ji posted shoes us barely deviating from average temps in that period, some areas on the bay even being slightly below average.

But you're only showing it THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY when it will just be underway, and it includes some very cold air expected this weekend.  Look, I'm all for it being very muted as much as possible but in reality we should be looking at about Wednesday of next week into the following one.

ETA:  And yeah, even looking at the plot @Ji posted which would cover more of the moderation...note the warm departures heading our way just to the west.

ETA2:  Also, every single model, not just the Euro, is projecting a blast of very cold air through this weekend into the early part of next week.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

But you're only showing it THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY when it will just be underway, and it includes some very cold air expected this weekend.  Look, I'm all for it being very muted as much as possible but in reality we should be looking at about Wednesday of next week into the following one.

ETA:  And yeah, even looking at the plot @Ji posted which would cover more of the moderation...note the warm departures heading our way just to the west.

If the ridge bridge still looks like it’ll only last 3 days then the 11-16th map could pretty much cover the relaxation in its entirety. Which if so shows barely any deviation from the seasonal mean at that time.

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Comparison Map:

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If the ridge bridge still looks like it’ll only last 3 days then the 11-16th map could pretty much cover the relaxation in its entirety. Which if so shows barely any deviation from the seasonal mean at that time.

Sorry if I came off a bit harsh before.  I'm hopeful that whatever warmup or relaxation is relatively short and we can have some real chances thereafter for the latter part of this month and early March.  I'm not expecting the level of cold we just had (nobody should be!), but if we can have some decent cold around that can be tapped into with a nicely timed wave, we can do pretty well perhaps.  @psuhoffman described this a bit earlier.  We may have more variability, but as long as we don't get stuck in a lousy setup I think/hope we'll be good.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

It definitely fits since it will be impossible to get rid of. 

Just be sure to wear your rubbers...I mean BOOTS of course!!!!

[Heisy]

Decent confluence on top, shortwave might be able to undercut it here.

[Climate175]

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Sorry if I came off a bit harsh before.  I'm hopeful that whatever warmup or relaxation is relatively short and we can have some real chances thereafter for the latter part of this month and early March.  I'm not expecting the level of cold we just had (nobody should be!), but if we can have some decent cold around that can be tapped into with a nicely timed wave, we can do pretty well perhaps.  @psuhoffman described this a bit earlier.  We may have more variability, but as long as we don't get stuck in a lousy setup I think/hope we'll be good.

You’re all good. I’ve appreciated you adding your takes. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Sorry if I came off a bit harsh before.  I'm hopeful that whatever warmup or relaxation is relatively short and we can have some real chances thereafter for the latter part of this month and early March.  I'm not expecting the level of cold we just had (nobody should be!), but if we can have some decent cold around that can be tapped into with a nicely timed wave, we can do pretty well perhaps.  @psuhoffman described this a bit earlier.  We may have more variability, but as long as we don't get stuck in a lousy setup I think/hope we'll be good.

I was also not intending for my post to deny any relaxation, it’s just that some of the dates in the latter part of the range are showing up on google’s extended forecast and at the moment look rather mild. If the euro verifies then I think the highs will get walked back a bit.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Just be sure to wear your rubbers...I mean BOOTS of course!!!!

Unfortunately the magnums were sold out, i guess ill find some boots. 

[Heisy]

Not the strongest HP up top but you can see how it’s forcing a secondary

[mitchnick]

AiGfs just went all rain with all medium and long range storms fwiw.

[snowfan]

GFS OP sticking with an overrunning event hitting our CAD late next Friday. 

[Heisy]

Wacky gfs run, has the WAA thump I mentioned and then redevelops a coastal somehow few days later on

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Heisy said:

Wacky gfs run, has the WAA thump I mentioned and then redevelops a coastal somehow few days later on

Yeah that did look..."interesting"...in terms of development.  But hell, looked pretty damned decent to me overall!  it appears that it develops a coastal after it has passed us (and dumps a decent WAA thump of snow/mix/ice), while still holding on to a fairly strong primary around the Lakes.  But temps look OK verbatim through that time.  And then some small disturbance gives more snow a short time after behind all that it appears?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS wacky HH run at fantasy range. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS wacky HH run at fantasy range. 

I approve of this and this time period does have potential 

.