February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Chris78]

The Friday clipper looks even crappier than it did before if that's possible lol.

[Paleocene]

Just now, Chris78 said:

The Friday clipper looks even crappier than it did before if that's possible lol.

Hey I'll take my 0.7" friday pack refresher on top of the 0.5" I get weds

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

So much here…We almost get a snowstorm 48 hours after this. On aigfs we do. And it’s the long range gfs. 

some of our best storms have been a couple of days after a significant warm-up. 

[Heisy]

Well, so much for winter.

Sudden stratospheric warming coincides with above average temp periods for us so it makes sense. Statistically there is about a 70% chance we get normal or below normal temps in a few weeks (if the SSW happens) so hang in there

[NorthArlington101]

52 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Eh it’s what we hoped the midweek thing could be before its energy got split. It happens 

EPS/AIFS is honking for VA beach/NC again for the pt.2 of the midweek thing. Rich get richer

[SnowenOutThere]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS/AIFS is honking for VA beach/NC again for the pt.2 of the midweek thing. Rich get richer

I mean if our clipper falls apart even more it’s conceivable that energy helps make that storm come north. Probably too late for you but Cvill might get into the fringe

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS/AIFS is honking for VA beach/NC again for the pt.2 of the midweek thing. Rich get richer

I'll say it till I turn blue, you want to be in the bullseye the first decent event(s) because it often tells you where anomalous snowfall will be for the season. Sure enough, the places that got hit several times in December keep on stacking it up.

[wasnow215]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say it till I turn blue, you want to be in the bullseye the first decent event(s) because it often tells you where anomalous snowfall will be for the season. Sure enough, the places that got hit several times in December keep on stacking it up.

West Chesterfield/Magnolia Green area got hit hard on December 9 or whatever that Monday was. 5 inches here.

Didn't even have a flake Saturday afternoon and evening.

 

Edit-Dec 8

 

 

[Ji]

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

[Grothar of Herndon]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

I am not sure why you are surprised. It has happened to us many, many times in the past and many times this winter. 

[87storms]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

The weather pattern went from NFC championship to 5-12.  Just checked the Euro…how’s 26/27 looking?

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

2 week ensemble forecasts are as reliable and certain as 2 day Nam forecasts.