Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Terpeast]

Nowcast comparison for 19z:

 

Decent agreement, good initialization for HRRR

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I think everything is colder than the NAMs, thankfully.

Putting the NAMs to the side, it seems most guidance that I’ve seen (Euro, GFS, 18z HRRR, etc), suggests we flip between 14-15z with anywhere from 0.5-0.6” QPF by then.  That’s a nice thump IMO.

Even if we flip 13-14z, that’s still 0.5” QPF on the Euro.  

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Nowcast comparison for 19z:

 

Decent agreement, good initialization for HRRR

The only difference I see is the radar penetration into sw WV.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Man we are gonna get like 1 inch qpf as sleet/freezing rain according to the HRRR, when’s the last time that happened?

[CavalierHoo]

Light flurries in Chesterfield under some stray radar returns.  First flakes of the day.  Wont last long I imagine.  20/20.

[EHoffman]

That's a lot of ZR for the metros on the HRRR

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said:

Light flurries in Chesterfield under some stray radar returns.  First flakes of the day.  Wont last long I imagine.  20/20.

Pictures?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z HRRR

 

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z HRRR

 

What an absolute mess this would be if it verified.  I do not like the ZR at all this run

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z HRRR

 

8” snow and 2” of sleet on top, sign me up

[bncho]

1/25-26 Final Call Snowfall Forecast — Courtesy of the JV Team

Like last time, hopefully the maps are pretty self-explanatory, which showcase snow totals and sleet totals, and the thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing, which was shifted north due to trends towards a more aggressive warm nose. However, my idea about the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016 has not changed. Snowfall ratios will be very high at onset and will drop to more normal levels right before the flip to sleet. 

The snow will start at approximately midnight, gradually increasing in intensity. Moderate snow will overtake the area around 4 AM before turning heavy—from 7 AM to noon, snowfall rates will be upwards of 1-2" per hour. Afterwards, a flip to heavy sleet will occur, and many will likely be measuring sleet in inches. It's likely that the metros will eventually flip to freezing rain/drizzle, too, making conditions all the more treacherous. Temperatures will also likely remain below 28 for metros as well, ensuring no melting occurs, which will create a mess. This wintry mess is why this will be the most impactful storm since 2016, as this will likely turn into thick glacier overnight, which will be extremely hard to clean up.

After the storm, temperatures remain frigid. Tuesday morning could record below-zero temperatures, and the high temperature will likely fail to reach 32 until February. 

This was a rollercoaster of a ride to track, but I'm grateful I got to track it with all of you! Snow is snow, and snow is beautiful. Let's get buried!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Getting some development already off the SE Coast:

[Imgoinhungry]

WB 18Z HRRR
 

8 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, .2 inches of freezing rain? Yea, that would shut down dc metro for a week.


.

[Swiscaster]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Shovel early, while still snowing, so you have a base layer of snow to help the sleet not fuse with pavement 

So be up by 6am on a Sunday…. Not happening

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

1/25-26 Final Call Snowfall Forecast — Courtesy of the JV Team

Like last time, hopefully the maps are pretty self-explanatory, which showcase snow totals and sleet totals, and the thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing, which was shifted north due to trends towards a more aggressive warm nose. However, my idea about the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016 has not changed. Snowfall ratios will be very high at onset and will drop to more normal levels right before the flip to sleet. 

The snow will start at approximately midnight, gradually increasing in intensity. Moderate snow will overtake the area around 4 AM before turning heavy—from 7 AM to noon, snowfall rates will be upwards of 1-2" per hour. Afterwards, a flip to heavy sleet will occur, and many will likely be measuring sleet in inches. It's likely that the metros will eventually flip to freezing rain/drizzle, too, making conditions all the more treacherous. Temperatures will also likely remain below 28 for metros as well, ensuring no melting occurs, which will create a mess. This wintry mess is why this will be the most impactful storm since 2016, as this will likely turn into thick glacier overnight, which will be extremely hard to clean up.

After the storm, temperatures remain frigid. Tuesday morning could record below-zero temperatures, and the high temperature will likely fail to reach 32 until February. 

This was a rollercoaster of a ride to track, but I'm grateful I got to track it with all of you! Snow is snow, and snow is beautiful. Let's get buried!

Not bad grasshopper, perhaps a more enhanced background map next time

[CavalierHoo]

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Pictures?

Ugh. File is too big. But you can barely see the tiny flakes in the pic anyway. I did say light

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Getting some development already off the SE Coast:

Was that modeled

[jayyy]

Getting some development already off the SE Coast:

Wouldn’t it be something if models were getting that energy handoff wrong. They all, to a degree, maintain that weakening primary into the OHV and torch our mid levels to varying degrees. But man, imagine we saw that coastal pop early and south..

[Berlin1926]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Nowcast comparison for 19z:

 

Decent agreement, good initialization for HRRR

This is genius.  Thank you for showing the comparison.  I have wondered for years why the model sites dont have a feature that does this automatically for people without multiple screens.  Damn, I think I just answered my own question.  

[Ji]

Getting some development already off the SE Coast:

Annual hallucination!

[Berlin1926]

5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

8 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, .2 inches of freezing rain? Yea, that would shut down dc metro for a week.


.

Dc to Richmond

[AU74]

18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Man we are gonna get like 1 inch qpf as sleet/freezing rain according to the HRRR, when’s the last time that happened?

Maybe the 1993 "Storm of the Century".

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NAM adjusting south with the rain snow line at hour 12 in the Ohio valley. 

[MillvilleWx]

59 minutes ago, bncho said:

When you say Max 10" or whatever does that mean some isolated areas will receive up to 10"?

Yup! 

[omega]

22 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The only difference I see is the radar penetration into sw WV.

There's a lot of dry air in place ahead of the storm. A lot of what's on the leading periphery of the precip on radar is probably virga, with a few flakes at best reaching the ground. HRRR is probably picking up on that, so I would lean with the 18Z HRRR initialization. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2mb stronger high compared to a couple runs ago  and slightly slower progression on the 18z 3km NAM. 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

2mb stronger high compared to a couple runs ago  and slightly slower progression on the 18z 3km NAM. 

Actually quite a noticeable de-amp on this run too.

 

Edit: actually seems to be catching up on the amp by 15...

[TSSN+]

Nam at hour 12 shifted the sleet/snow line like 75 miles south in one run. From there I don't really care what it shows lol. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Actually quite a noticeable de-amp on this run too.

 

Edit: actually seems to be catching up on the amp by 15...

Eh the r/s line is a fair bit south out in the TN valley and so is the overall precip shield. 

[stormy]

My 8 model blend has dropped from 9.0" to 7.2" since 7 am.