January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[EHoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Depends on where you are. I'd imagine it'll be at most a 4 day week...and decreasing the further n & w you get, lol

If we get 8" plus tons of sleet and temps not hitting freezing all week...wouldn't shock me if most systems are closed most of the week.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, EHoffman said:

If we get 8" plus tons of sleet and temps not hitting freezing all week...wouldn't shock me if most systems are closed most of the week.

Good point...yeah the arctic plunge part of this does add more to the equation

[Amped]

It would seem, with all the computing power availible out there today they could make a snowfall algorithm that actually works.

Instead we have 10:1 maps and Kuchara maps.

10:1 Maps:  Heavy sleet for a few hours, you get a foot of snow.

Kuchara Maps: 0.12" qpf with a temp of 6F, 100:1 ratios, you get a foot of snow.

Both algorithms clearly are going to exagerate totals in this case. There could and should be something better. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Depends on where you are. I'd imagine it'll be at most a 4 day week...and decreasing the further n & w you get, lol

4 day week for BCPS?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

4 day week for BCPS?

Yeah probably. Can't imagine anybody is gonna be able to do much of anything Monday morning, lol

[WxUSAF]

Throw in the frigid Tuesday morning temps and I’ll be shocked if school systems open. Would take a major forecast bust 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Throw in the frigid Tuesday morning temps and I’ll be shocked if school systems open. Would take a major forecast bust 

Zones have a lot of "lows near 0" Tuesday morning 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah probably. Can't imagine anybody is gonna be able to do much of anything Monday morning, lol

I expect Monday closed. Maybe Tuesday depending on how long precip goes into Monday. If not closed Tuesday at least a delay

[stormy]

The ECM AI ens gives Augusta 16 inches.

It warms less aloft than the deterministic ECM and AI.

[dallen7908]

AI overview of the effectiveness of salt as a function of temperature.

 

"Different salts work for different temperatures, with 

calcium chloride best for extreme cold (down to -25°F), magnesium chloride for moderate cold (around 10°F), and standard sodium chloride (rock salt) effective only above 15°F, making blends or specialized products better for deep freezes. 

 

Salt types by temperature

• Above 15°F: Sodium Chloride (rock salt) is affordable and works for light cold.
• 10°F to 20°F: Magnesium Chloride handles teens and regular cold, absorbing moisture.
• Below 10°F: Calcium Chloride is best for extreme cold, melting quickly and working down to -25°F.
• Blends: Many commercial ice melts use blends (like calcium chloride/magnesium chloride) for broader effectiveness. 

 

Key considerations

• Speed: Calcium chloride melts ice faster than sodium chloride.
• Pet/Plant Safety: Magnesium chloride is a less harmful option for pets and plants, while calcium chloride can damage lawns if overused.
• Application: Use ice melt before snow to prevent bonding, and apply sparingly to avoid damage. " 

[mappy]

Just now, mappy said:

I expect Monday closed. Maybe Tuesday depending on how long precip goes into Monday. If not closed Tuesday at least a delay

Worth adding I can also see Hereford zone staying closed longer than rest of the county 

[H2O]

None of those salts can be used for margs, can they?  Asking for a friend

[dallen7908]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

None of those salts can be used for margs, can they?  Asking for a friend

According to AI, table salt is too fine, dissolves too fast, and contains additives that create a sharp, unpleasant flavor.  So perhaps they would work better than table salt - but kosher salt recommended. 

[WxUSAF]

I’m done with model plots lol. Ready to watch snow fall. 

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m done with model plots lol. Ready to watch snow fall. 

[pazzo83]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m done with model plots lol. Ready to watch snow fall. 

don't anger the models!!!

[H2O]

Anyone else cracking up that we have people debating why sleet is counted as snow on maps?

 

 

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Anyone else cracking up that we have people debating why sleet is counted as snow on maps?

 

 

these damn kids

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Except when it's minus 4.

Yeah, but nobody cares about the models during the time of year it is minus 4

[pazzo83]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, but nobody cares about the models during the time of year it is minus 4

hurricanes!

[clueless]

What’s the plan for the GFS? It’s on an island usually. Evergreen ‘why bother’ do we look at it? 

[MN Transplant]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Throw in the frigid Tuesday morning temps and I’ll be shocked if school systems open. Would take a major forecast bust 

Fairfax County has end of the quarter teacher workdays on Thurs/Fri and an early dismissal on Wednesday.  There's basically no chance my kid will be in school next week.

[MN Transplant]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

hurricanes!

Alright, fair enough!

[pazzo83]

I worked for a company based in London for a few years, and they would always say things like "we'll meet at 2pm GMT" etc - and I had to remind them that in the summer, they are BST, which is GMT+1.  It sounds pedantic, but since EDT is GMT-4, but London is generally always 5 hrs ahead (except for the weird misalignment of the daylight savings start/end), the meeting time would not be clear.

[H2O]

Like we get hurricanes here anymore. Those are more rare than snowstorms. I mean sleet storms

[RIC_WX]

There are 48 hours of model runs before the first flake, pellet or drop falls.  We are not even at the two minute warning, still plenty of time for this to trend better / worse and undoubtedly it will.  

[mattie g]

I love when people question why someone might be disappointed in a flip. It's really thoughtful and no doubt makes the person on the other end automatically feel better about the prospect of flipping to sleet.

[Chris78]

Can confirm grocery stores are busier today than yesterday.  

And will be busier tomorrow than they are today.

Totally getting rocked today.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Watching the NAM come out having no clue if the changes at 500 are good or bad. 

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Watching the NAM come out having no clue if the changes at 500 are good or bad. 

I think we've determined that seemingly good changes up top have been offset by other changes elsewhere. Been happening for the last 48 hours or more.