jaydreb Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: You can still delete this Does it not start to mix after 90? If I’m wrong I will delete. I want to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 take it and run with this... 12 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I keep telling you guys….that front end thump is gonna mean BUSINESS 23 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC so far looking more eastward with its phasing of the NS and SW. Otherwise similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC still wants the primary to go north at 78 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 can someone tell us what we want the 500mb to look like for this storm lol? it seems like no matter what happens..we get the same results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: For now assume all my posts are made with me being at UVA Thanks for the map. Mix is probably about the same time in Stafford. I like this GFS run even with the mix. It’s sleet and not freezing rain!!! Too many issues with FZRA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC still wants the primary to go north at 78 it looks like.We already saw the RGEM so we’ve basically seen the CMC. 6-8” thump then we mix. Hopefully that’s the floor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, batmanbrad said: take it and run with this... You're a panel early for most! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Call it a HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Ji said: can someone tell us what we want the 500mb to look like for this storm lol? it seems like no matter what happens..we get the same results Dude, we are going to mix no matter what. It's baked it. We are trying to mitigate the sleet damage at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: take it and run with this... Damn I take! This is very good for the DC Region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sleet on the doorstep on the CMC...just inside the heavy snow, but we about to go down @ 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Does it not start to mix after 90? If I’m wrong I will delete. I want to be wrong. No, it does not. Probably right at 96 or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: CMC. Yeah it's gonna be over 10 for all of us before any chance of a flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Jebman said: Damn I take! This is very good for the DC Region! thought of you - the JebWalk possibilites would be endless if that even just comes close to verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: CMC. That is a beat down for NVA/CMD on that panel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Slightly OT but the ZR numbers on the GFS for north Georgia are incredible — 2-3 inches around ATL and much of it falling with temps in the mid-20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sleet 90 hour - 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Canadian does go to a sleet bomb on the next panel. But we are all pretty buried at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I keep telling you guys….that front end thump is gonna mean BUSINESS Big dog waiting to be unleashed 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, nj2va said: That is a beat down for NVA/CMD on that panel. Has the CMC ever won? I feel like its a terrible model. our first snowstorm this year---even 6 hours out it was showing things that were not happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC does not have the dropsonde data. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dude, we are going to mix no matter what. It's baked it. We are trying to mitigate the sleet damage at this point. Hypothetically we still could avoid it. Would require dramatic shifts by 12z tomorrow (and even worse the GFS to be mostly right) but theres enough weirdness in the NS where I wouldn't write it off completely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: thought of you - the JebWalk possibilites would be endless if that even just comes close to verifying... The worm is turning positive for DC, especially with more data ingests. You are all gonna do very well, even with some sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I keep telling you guys….that front end thump is gonna mean BUSINESS Is that something the Conv. Allowing models will be more helpful with when they are more in range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC gets sleet all the way up to Boston this run... sheesh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Hypothetically we still could avoid it. Would require dramatic shifts by 12z tomorrow (and even worse the GFS to be mostly right) but theres enough weirdness in the NS where I wouldn't write it off completely. I think it's unavoidable at this point. Even our best case GFS has some sleet in there. I think it's a given. It's tough to hear, but at this point, I think we are looking to mitigate. GFS would be a wonderful solution if we absolutely had to deal with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Ji said: Has the CMC ever won? I feel like its a terrible model. our first snowstorm this year---even 6 hours out it was showing things that were not happening Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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