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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2


mappy
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15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Tomer Burg posted elsewhere that it apparently is a know euro problem with ZR vs sleet. I think very little ZR for the metro areas. Maybe FZDZ at the very end.

I think it's having issues with snow vs sleet/zr as well? Look at this 6z sounding over DC @ 18z Sun.. maps say zr. That looks like snow to me unless there's a sneaky warm layer in there

image.thumb.png.ec318622b922aa1725f22f9836b2d607.png

 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

LWX also pretty aggro. We'll see

StormTotalSnow.jpg

 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

LWX just updated event total snow. 10” DC, 11” Baltimore, 11” CHO, 9” EZF, 14” FDK and HGR.

Wonder if they're including an estimated sleet accumulation on top of whatever snow in that total, that map goes through Sunday evening.

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1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

Wonder if they're including an estimated sleet accumulation on top of whatever snow in that total, that map goes through Sunday evening.

I have always assumed it counts sleet because sleet counts as snow (for reporting purposes)

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

LWX just updated event total snow. 10” DC, 11” Baltimore, 11” CHO, 9” EZF, 14” FDK and HGR.

thats ballsy.  But I like it.  They have to be factoring in some of the slightly colder solutions

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

They may be going with a blend of the Euro and GFS. Which isn't entirely unreasonable, just not something we would run with ourselves.

Who let Ji onto LWX’s snow map making computer lol. Ya right if he was on there the map would be maxed out. 

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

:yikes: that's aggressive

 

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

thats ballsy.  But I like it.  They have to be factoring in some of the slightly colder solutions

If you’re going off just this 12z suite, maybe a bit? If you’re including some 6z and 0z in your super ensemble, maybe not? Think that’s about spot on what 6z euro had except for maybe southernmost zones?

And yeah, 1” of sleet seems quite possible on top of snow.

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7 minutes ago, hstorm said:

I have always assumed it counts sleet because sleet counts as snow (for reporting purposes)

 

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Almost certainly.  Sleet counts as accumulation.

That's what I thought and was my understanding.  So you might figure (for DC) ~8" of pure snow plus another couple inches of snow/sleet after that, perhaps.  Or something on that order.  The point-click forecast is currently going 5-9" overnight Saturday and then snow/sleet Sunday (with no estimate yet on amount).

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

If you’re going off just this 12z suite, maybe a bit? If you’re including some 6z and 0z in your super ensemble, maybe not? Think that’s about spot on what 6z euro had except for maybe southernmost zones?

And yeah, 1” of sleet seems quite possible on top of snow.

Sleetpack on top of snow? That is not going anywhere any time soon.

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19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

CTP snow map is ridiculous but hey I’ll enjoy it for now till it drops like 8” later lol 

 

IMG_9796.jpeg

I actually don’t think it’s that bad. May not sleet as much once you north of the line compared to my backyard 

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17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

LWX also pretty aggro. We'll see

StormTotalSnow.jpg

That’s not a terrible map, but it doesn’t include the microclimate types and also is smoothed compared to what the eventual QPF distribution will eventually be in the end. I can see the northern and southern edges adjusting to showing a larger spread and tighter gradient by game time, but I don’t see this is a terrible forecast upfront. Bit aggressive, but we have time. 

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1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Sleet falls at around 3:1 right? Using Euro's QPF of 1.4 and conservatively guessing 1/2 of that to fall as snow, 1/2 as sleet; 0.7*10+.7*3 = 9.1 inches total accumulation. I'll take that as a baseline any day.

Yes, 3:1 ratio is assumed for sleet

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

That’s not a terrible map, but it doesn’t include the microclimate types and also is smoothed compared to what the eventual QPF distribution will eventually be in the end. I can see the northern and southern edges adjusting to showing a larger spread and tighter gradient by game time, but I don’t see this is a terrible forecast upfront. Bit aggressive, but we have time. 

Yeah, going to be banding and ratio variations that change things. 

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4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

That's what I thought and was my understanding.  So you might figure (for DC) ~8" of pure snow plus another couple inches of snow/sleet after that, perhaps.  Or something on that order.  The point-click forecast is currently going 5-9" overnight Saturday and then snow/sleet Sunday (with no estimate yet on amount).

Accumulation yes, but would sleet actually add to snow depth (which is all anyone who isn't a weirdo like us will pay attention to).  Sleet usually doesn't just sit nicely "on top" of fresh powdery snow but rather it mixes in with it and even compacts it. 

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