January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[understudyhero]

What does sleet look like at 20 degrees like I can't imagine it.

Does it just instantly crust up the snow on the ground already?

[jayyy]

See his note about Thursday nights 00z runs being key....

00z Thursday is late Wednesday night’s runs though

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

That was an epic storm. 24" of snow in Damascus, 5" in Takoma Park. We had nearly dry roads in southern Montgomery County, while upcounty it was snowing hard.

Storm was wild. Temps much colder this go around too. Should be an interesting night Saturday into Sunday morning. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Whats to hate about that?

Diminished snow, remember where you are.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

There's also the NW trend though.

The developing coastal low is tucked on the Euro and CMC. GFS has a damn near perfect track to keep almost everyone frozen. Be great if it has the right idea, but its kind of alone, and it is the GFS.

[pazzo83]

19 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah I wonder how accurate these ptype algos are? Tons of freezing rain on these things....

let's hope that's sleet.

[Terpeast]

If I can beat my 7.6” in last year’s storm, I’m good. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Some was, but Mt Airy actually got close to close to 20” from the front end thump. There was a band that setup over there area down to Clarksburg that absolutely crushed them. Never forecast until the last minute. That can happen with these setups. Never know!! 

Many of the analog events had surprise winners from the front end thump. Folks brought up Feb 21, 2015 as such an instance. Feb 16, 2016 is another good one, that had brutal cold leading in.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

If I can beat my 7.6” in last year’s storm, I’m good. 

I haven’t seen a 10” storm in a place that should see 10” storms in 10 years so I’m hoping to hit at least that. 

[TSG]

19 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah I wonder how accurate these ptype algos are? Tons of freezing rain on these things....

This is 6z but same thing going on. I'm having a hard time believing this sounding results in ZR 

[RevWarReenactor]

9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

My biggest concern is we keep trending northwest and end up with disaster of an ice storm. Like is being progged to our south. If widespread power outages hit the major cities and suburbs, we could have millions without power heading into an arctic blast.

We are a little over 2 days out. This isn't a week away.

If things trend that bad in that short of a time period, that would be a failure on the models of monumental proportions. Its unlikely. 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The developing coastal low is tucked on the Euro and CMC. GFS has a damn near perfect track to keep almost everyone frozen. Be great if it has the right idea, but its kind of alone, and it is the GFS.

Crazy idea I know, but maybe GFS is leading he way and the Euro and CMC are trying to catch up?

[TSSN+]

Just now, TSG said:

This is 6z but same thing going on. I'm having a hard time believing this sounding results in ZR 

It’s not, euro precip maps struggles at showing sleet. Half that area showing zr is actually sleet. 

[pazzo83]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

I was just telling Andy and Randy in our group chat that as long as I can stay snow until noon, I’m good. Hopefully a foot on the ground before the inevitable flip to sleet 

i have to feel like you guys near the MD/PA border are in pretty good shape.

[NorthArlington101]

I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story:

5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.

[pazzo83]

6 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

What does sleet look like at 20 degrees like I can't imagine it.

Does it just instantly crust up the snow on the ground already?

were you alive for PD2?  Yeah it's kinda weird actually.  It's almost like a more powdery sleet (I know that seems hard to imagine)

[CAPE]

I question the amount of freezing rain the Euro is depicting for the DC area up towards Baltimore. Something seems off with that. Probably some of that is sleet.

[Terpeast]

Also think of it this way… we’re finally getting a classic N&W storm

[EHoffman]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

were you alive for PD2?  Yeah it's kinda weird actually.

I'll never forget the pouring sleet during PD2.  Given we already had like 20" on the ground but it was something.  I'm really excited for this storm just on sfc temps alone.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

i have to feel like you guys near the MD/PA border are in pretty good shape.

WAA thump should be good up here but I keep expectations low 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Crazy idea I know, but maybe GFS is leading he way and the Euro and CMC are trying to catch up?

We will find out soon enough lol

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story:

5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.

I envision this storm as a reverse 2011 Commutageddon, occurring near the 15th anniversary, with heavy snow at the onset followed by prolonged sleet — a different evolution, but potentially similar societal impacts.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I haven’t seen a 10” storm in a place that should see 10” storms in 10 years so I’m hoping to hit at least that. 

10” would be fantastic!

[pazzo83]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Also think of it this way… we’re finally getting a classic N&W storm

yeah - feel like it's been a minute

[umdterps29]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story:

5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.

The problem is that just yesterday basically every model had 8-12" thump before the sleet. The thump is getting less thumpy. That's what people are bummed about

[MN Transplant]

My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC.  

 

Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+

[pazzo83]

Just now, EHoffman said:

I'll never forget the pouring sleet during PD2.  Given we already had like 20" on the ground but it was something.  I'm really excited for this storm just on sfc temps alone.

In C'ville we were in the low teens with heavy sleet.  It was pretty wild.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

What does sleet look like at 20 degrees like I can't imagine it.

Does it just instantly crust up the snow on the ground already?

Go to any 7-11 and make yourself a large cup of crushed ice.

[jayyy]

The developing coastal low is tucked on the Euro and CMC. GFS has a damn near perfect track to keep almost everyone frozen. Be great if it has the right idea, but its kind of alone, and it is the GFS.

Broken clock is right twice a day! Who am I kidding… euro / cmc vs gfs

I’m setting my bar at 8-10 up this way and will hope for the best

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, umdterps29 said:

The problem is that just yesterday basically every model had 8-12" thump before the sleep. The thump is getting less thumpy. That's what people are bummed about

I guess... plenty of time to juice it back up a bit and it typically happens in these kind of setups. I'm just happy to not be worrying about surface temps.