January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Ji said:

Has the CMC ever won? I feel like its a terrible model. our first snowstorm this year---even 6 hours out it was showing things that were not happening

Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right. 

[clskinsfan]

That gfs run was like a naming. Insane

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I think it's unavoidable at this point.  Even our best case GFS has some sleet in there.  I think it's a given.  It's tough to hear, but at this point, I think we are looking to mitigate.   GFS would be a wonderful solution if we absolutely had to deal with sleet.

Oh I agree its a 90% plus likelihood but I think a pathway exists when we have such complex interactions for the models to shift some more. Once again I think all synoptic stuff is settled by tomorrow 12z (which is why I'll make my final analysis then) 

[Solution Man]

[poprock49]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

can someone tell us what we want the 500mb to look like for this storm lol? it seems like no matter what happens..we get the same results

Same result? I know you're trolling but man, that GFS run is substantially better for the forum as a whole. And no, I'm not just saying that because I happen to be on the right side of this pixel 

[LVblizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Has the CMC ever won? I feel like its a terrible model. our first snowstorm this year---even 6 hours out it was showing things that were not happening

It’s not a bad model. But when it’s wrong it’s usually too amped, not the other way around.

[Nomz]

Even though the 00z GFS had some sleet (not much) it still absolutely dumped us. Some sleet is not game over for DC/NOVA/MD.

[mitchnick]

Anyone with the parallel Canadian, please post. Thank you!

[yoda]

00z CMC total qpf near DCA was 2" lol

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

Is that something the Conv. Allowing models will be more helpful with when  they are more in range?

The certainly will add more definition to the banding aspects of the storm, but even those can shift around up to the immediate term. HRRR can be useful inside 8 hrs and check how it is handling the situation. I’m waiting to see the thermals on the NAM Nest for this one. That is the model that should help pin point advancement of the warm layers and everything. CAMs will be helpful, but we are a ways from that. For now, putting a lot of stock in EC, ECENS, AIFS, NBM, and some GFS/CMC mixed in. 

[Steckstacks]

Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right. 

It caught on to the NW trend quickly but so did all the other models, I think just overdid it a hair. I wouldn’t say it won this storm when pretty much all the other models caught on to it, too. Also, I wouldn’t say any model won until we know the final solution


.

[Scraff]

Been here long enough to know. Blend the GFS/Euro and you can probably have your answers for in your backyard. It’s really not rocket science. And thank god! I failed RS101. 

[high risk]

If you liked that GFS run, you're going to LOVE the 18Z NAM Nest on Saturday.    

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, poprock49 said:

Same result? I know you're trolling but man, that GFS run is substantially better for the forum as a whole. And no, I'm not just saying that because I happen to be on the right side of this pixel 

i actually posted this before the GFS came out--well i thought it did

[Yeoman]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right. 

The storm is 3 days away with an unknown outcome, so it hasn't won anything. Do they teach common sense over at UVA?

CMC also has a known bias to over-phase in the medium range

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

If you liked that GFS run, you're going to LOVE the 18Z NAM Nest on Saturday.    

[rjvanals]

I know I’m in the minority, but sleet is actually pretty fun—as long as we get a solid front-end thump.

And as a fan of snow cover, nothing preserves it quite like a thick layer of sleet on top.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

If you liked that GFS run, you're going to LOVE the 18Z NAM Nest on Saturday.    

[goodwidp]

Are any models capable of showing the potential for convection/thundersnow at this range?

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

It never gets old! 

[LP08]

Ukie thump still looking good

[NorthArlington101]

UKIE gonna stay in the good camp. Solidly snowing at 84 with the mix line still down near RIC

[Cobalt]

Just now, LP08 said:

Ukie thump still looking good

More confluence out ahead, slightly weaker ridge. Nowhere near that ridiculous 0z solution yesterday. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

UKIE gonna stay in the good camp. Solidly snowing at 84 with the mix line still down near RIC

Crushed from 84-90

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Crushed from 84-90

93 on UKIE sleet approaching 

[poprock49]

2 minutes ago, goodwidp said:

Are any models capable of showing the potential for convection/thundersnow at this range?

I believe mets here have said thundersnow is very unlikely given the set up

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z Can.

[NorthArlington101]

UKIE like 15”+ 10:1

[Imgoinhungry]

It has been discussed and sorry for missing it, but what kind of snow ratios are we looking at for this storm? Significantly more than 10:1, yes?


.

[LP08]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

UKIE like 15”+ 10:1

It’s outrageous lol