clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That gfs run was like a naming. Insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: I think it's unavoidable at this point. Even our best case GFS has some sleet in there. I think it's a given. It's tough to hear, but at this point, I think we are looking to mitigate. GFS would be a wonderful solution if we absolutely had to deal with sleet. Oh I agree its a 90% plus likelihood but I think a pathway exists when we have such complex interactions for the models to shift some more. Once again I think all synoptic stuff is settled by tomorrow 12z (which is why I'll make my final analysis then) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poprock49 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Ji said: can someone tell us what we want the 500mb to look like for this storm lol? it seems like no matter what happens..we get the same results Same result? I know you're trolling but man, that GFS run is substantially better for the forum as a whole. And no, I'm not just saying that because I happen to be on the right side of this pixel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Has the CMC ever won? I feel like its a terrible model. our first snowstorm this year---even 6 hours out it was showing things that were not happening It’s not a bad model. But when it’s wrong it’s usually too amped, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Even though the 00z GFS had some sleet (not much) it still absolutely dumped us. Some sleet is not game over for DC/NOVA/MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Anyone with the parallel Canadian, please post. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 00z CMC total qpf near DCA was 2" lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Is that something the Conv. Allowing models will be more helpful with when they are more in range? The certainly will add more definition to the banding aspects of the storm, but even those can shift around up to the immediate term. HRRR can be useful inside 8 hrs and check how it is handling the situation. I’m waiting to see the thermals on the NAM Nest for this one. That is the model that should help pin point advancement of the warm layers and everything. CAMs will be helpful, but we are a ways from that. For now, putting a lot of stock in EC, ECENS, AIFS, NBM, and some GFS/CMC mixed in. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steckstacks Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right. It caught on to the NW trend quickly but so did all the other models, I think just overdid it a hair. I wouldn’t say it won this storm when pretty much all the other models caught on to it, too. Also, I wouldn’t say any model won until we know the final solution . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Been here long enough to know. Blend the GFS/Euro and you can probably have your answers for in your backyard. It’s really not rocket science. And thank god! I failed RS101. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If you liked that GFS run, you're going to LOVE the 18Z NAM Nest on Saturday. 18 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, poprock49 said: Same result? I know you're trolling but man, that GFS run is substantially better for the forum as a whole. And no, I'm not just saying that because I happen to be on the right side of this pixel i actually posted this before the GFS came out--well i thought it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right. The storm is 3 days away with an unknown outcome, so it hasn't won anything. Do they teach common sense over at UVA? CMC also has a known bias to over-phase in the medium range 7 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I know I’m in the minority, but sleet is actually pretty fun—as long as we get a solid front-end thump. And as a fan of snow cover, nothing preserves it quite like a thick layer of sleet on top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, high risk said: If you liked that GFS run, you're going to LOVE the 18Z NAM Nest on Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodwidp Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Are any models capable of showing the potential for convection/thundersnow at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ukie thump still looking good 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UKIE gonna stay in the good camp. Solidly snowing at 84 with the mix line still down near RIC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, LP08 said: Ukie thump still looking good More confluence out ahead, slightly weaker ridge. Nowhere near that ridiculous 0z solution yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: UKIE gonna stay in the good camp. Solidly snowing at 84 with the mix line still down near RIC Crushed from 84-90 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Crushed from 84-90 93 on UKIE sleet approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poprock49 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, goodwidp said: Are any models capable of showing the potential for convection/thundersnow at this range? I believe mets here have said thundersnow is very unlikely given the set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 0Z Can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UKIE like 15”+ 10:1 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It has been discussed and sorry for missing it, but what kind of snow ratios are we looking at for this storm? Significantly more than 10:1, yes?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: UKIE like 15”+ 10:1 It’s outrageous lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Wow. The ukie is insane as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: It has been discussed and sorry for missing it, but what kind of snow ratios are we looking at for this storm? Significantly more than 10:1, yes? . I've been mentally averaging 10:1 and Kuchera, though if the mix line becomes more of a threat (as in, CAD is lost sooner than pretty much all modeling shows right now) might revert to 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Just some speculation that this cycle will NAM the crap out of us. 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, LP08 said: It’s outrageous lol 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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