January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

4 inches of sleet and an inch of freezing rain on top in Raleigh and Charlotte is pretty wild

That’s not wild that’s catastrophic damage

[jaydreb]

Just now, stormtracker said:

You can still delete this

Does it not start to mix after 90?  If I’m wrong I will delete.  I want to be wrong.  

[batmanbrad]

take it and run with this...

[MillvilleWx]

I keep telling you guys….that front end thump is gonna mean BUSINESS 

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC so far looking more eastward with its phasing of the NS and SW. Otherwise similar. 

[baltosquid]

CMC still wants the primary to go north at 78 it looks like.

[Ji]

can someone tell us what we want the 500mb to look like for this storm lol? it seems like no matter what happens..we get the same results

[wawarriors4]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

For now assume all my posts are made with me being at UVA

Thanks for the map. Mix is probably about the same time in Stafford. I like this GFS run even with the mix. It’s sleet and not freezing rain!!! Too many issues with FZRA.

[NorthArlington101]

CMC still wants the primary to go north at 78 it looks like.

We already saw the RGEM so we’ve basically seen the CMC. 6-8” thump then we mix. Hopefully that’s the floor.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, batmanbrad said:

take it and run with this...

You're a panel early for most!

[Nomz]

Call it a HECS?

[jaydreb]

CMC. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

can someone tell us what we want the 500mb to look like for this storm lol? it seems like no matter what happens..we get the same results

Dude, we are going to mix no matter what.  It's baked it.  We are trying to mitigate the sleet damage at this point.

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

take it and run with this...

Damn I take! This is very good for the DC Region!

[stormtracker]

Sleet on the doorstep on the CMC...just inside the heavy snow, but we about to go down @ 84

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Does it not start to mix after 90?  If I’m wrong I will delete.  I want to be wrong.  

No, it does not. Probably right at 96 or so.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

CMC. 

Yeah it's gonna be over 10 for all of us before any chance of a flip. 

[batmanbrad]

Just now, Jebman said:

Damn I take! This is very good for the DC Region!

thought of you - the JebWalk possibilites would be endless if that even just comes close to verifying...

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

CMC. 

That is a beat down for NVA/CMD on that panel.

[hstorm]

Slightly OT but the ZR numbers on the GFS for north Georgia are incredible — 2-3 inches around ATL and much of it falling with temps in the mid-20s  

 

 

 

[stormtracker]

Sleet 90 hour - 96. 

[clskinsfan]

Canadian does go to a sleet bomb on the next panel. But we are all pretty buried at that point. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I keep telling you guys….that front end thump is gonna mean BUSINESS 

Big dog waiting to be unleashed

[Ji]

Just now, nj2va said:

That is a beat down for NVA/CMD on that panel.

Has the CMC ever won? I feel like its a terrible model. our first snowstorm this year---even 6 hours out it was showing things that were not happening

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC does not have the dropsonde data. 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Dude, we are going to mix no matter what.  It's baked it.  We are trying to mitigate the sleet damage at this point.

Hypothetically we still could avoid it. Would require dramatic shifts by 12z tomorrow (and even worse the GFS to be mostly right) but theres enough weirdness in the NS where I wouldn't write it off completely. 

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

thought of you - the JebWalk possibilites would be endless if that even just comes close to verifying...

The worm is turning positive for DC, especially with more data ingests. You are all gonna do very well, even with some sleet on top.

[Rhino16]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I keep telling you guys….that front end thump is gonna mean BUSINESS 

Is that something the Conv. Allowing models will be more helpful with when  they are more in range?

[caviman2201]

CMC gets sleet all the way up to Boston this run... sheesh

[stormtracker]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Hypothetically we still could avoid it. Would require dramatic shifts by 12z tomorrow (and even worse the GFS to be mostly right) but theres enough weirdness in the NS where I wouldn't write it off completely. 

I think it's unavoidable at this point.  Even our best case GFS has some sleet in there.  I think it's a given.  It's tough to hear, but at this point, I think we are looking to mitigate.   GFS would be a wonderful solution if we absolutely had to deal with sleet.