January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[stormtracker]

so guys

[MN Transplant]

GFS still with a weak 850 low like this morning.  This shouldn't end up like the ICON or even the Euro.

[T. August]

GFS starts snow in DC at 7pm Saturday

[Cobalt]

Northern stream is running out a good bit further ahead than 12z, which I assume is a good thing 

[Amped]

Gfs is further east with the northern stream. Hopefully it stays that way.

[stormtracker]

It's better than 12z for us

 

*precip wise...it APPEARS to be cold enough for snow through 93?   Can't see using Atari 2600 over here

[MN Transplant]

Just now, stormtracker said:

so guys

We spent days not wanting the GFS solution, now it is our best hope

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So what would your “we’re in the clear” point be when it comes to model runs not showing that?

I’ll feel better about everything if we clear 0z tomorrow night without major changes. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

GFS still with a weak 850 low like this morning.  This shouldn't end up like the ICON or even the Euro.

Just doesn’t have that second NS lobe like the other models do. Gives me some hope that even if they meet in the middle we won’t see a super amped solution. 

[bncho]

I wanna say that the thermals as good as 12z, but the precip is north, making it a win win, but not sure yet.a

[TSSN+]

One thing not like the other 

 

[stormtracker]

There's gotta be some warm layer in there, because with these Blue's Clues ass graphics, it looks like all snow and I know that aint right

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

We spent days not wanting the GFS solution, now it is our best hope

Ok this is not me being a weenie, yes it sucks BUT as we get closer it does eventually have to find the right solution and now it looks like the AIFS which is the best model lol. And the icon sucks even more. Ok pep talk over 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll feel better about everything if we clear 0z tomorrow night without major changes. 

Yeah, my gut was telling me to wait until tomorrow before boarding the hype train in earnest.

[Nomz]

GFS should talk some people off the ledge

[87storms]

I wonder if the cmc and icon are underdoing the amount of dry air involved. Regardless, we’re in the euro and gfs’ world rn aka the important models.

[WEATHER53]

I want ask-

Has the Baja vital factor formed and begun moving?

 

What is estimated start time around DC Beltway and when will it be moderate to heavy?

what is estimated ending time?

Thanks 

[SnowenOutThere]

Night and day difference between GFS and Euro. The H5 map really shows all you need to see to why the GFS is an area wide all snow event. 

[T. August]

Just now, stormtracker said:

There's gotta be some warm layer in there, because with these Blue's Clues ass graphics, it looks like all snow and I know that aint right

Wxbell is snow through 96 at least

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS 7am, 10 am Sunday 

[stormtracker]

Wait...was I right?  It's all snow?  The next panel too shows....snow.  Help me out yall, this isn't right

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

There's gotta be some warm layer in there, because with these Blue's Clues ass graphics, it looks like all snow and I know that aint right

This run doesn't bring the warmth anywhere near us.

[CAPE]

Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event 

[Weather Will]

1, 4

[Solution Man]

Gonna be a big hit

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Night and day difference between GFS and Euro. The H5 map really shows all you need to see to why the GFS is an area wide all snow event. 

I mean it isn’t crazy to bet against a monster phase, right? Especially with how this winter has gone so far. But we shall see…

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Wait...was I right?  It's all snow?  The next panel too shows....snow.  Help you out yall, this isn't right

18z GFS kills the primary off and pops a coastal quicker. It's all snow. She's a beaut, Clark!

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event 

Yeah...it's the GFS on GFS shit like it was when it was the only model not showing anything.   It's too far S and E, but damn

[Rhino16]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wait...was I right?  It's all snow?

Seems better because that low stays off the NC coast a bit further. Can’t check too much because of work…

[Ralph Wiggum]

Is this the 1st run with the pac data ingested?