“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

lol - knew what to expect when you said that. definitely stronger low, would be nice for many - a little bit warmer here, but tough to trust the ICON thermals. 

I bet I give you nightmares lol

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Still don’t like how the CMC/RGEM are stubbornly warm down here. Flips to sleet by Sunday evening.

I would not sweat over the CMC/RGEM profiles. I've never modified other models  guidance based on what the CMC is showing...

[tamarack]

34 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Based on that picture, .looks like a big suck for maine

Whiff?  Or merely 8 hours later than current thinking?

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, mattm4242 said:

I posted channel 5 earlier, but the other stations in Boston are going super aggressive as well.

Those are some big numbers to already be throwing out there lol

The top map angers me

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I bet I give you nightmares lol

Me too. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Tick tick on the icon 1.5”+ in eastern ma 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Whiff?  Or merely 8 hours later than current thinking?

It would be later on that, At that hr it’s just getting into Mass.

[SouthCoastMA]

Agreed about the changeover issue being overplayed, but I'm just being greedy and looking to maximize this storm. Trying to avoid 20 miles north of me getting 19" while I'm stuck at 10-11"/slotted/snizzling. Damn, just realized I'm channeling Ray. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Bitching for 4yrs eventually pays off? Lets gizzo!

[CCHurricane]

10 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I would not sweat over the CMC/RGEM profiles. I've never modified other models  guidance based on what the CMC is showing...

Recent system this past Sunday/Monday a great example. Had Cape Cod modeled as rain for the majority of precip with no significant accumulations. Ended up with a widespread 4-6". 

[bristolri_wx]

11 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I would not sweat over the CMC/RGEM profiles. I've never modified other models  guidance based on what the CMC is showing...

I've always wondered how much Environment Canada uses their own models for forecasting vs the other globals that are available to them.  Are the Canadian models tuned for their geographic location?

CMC/RGEM is an outlier right now, so I wouldn't look too much into that until there's agreement.  Usually the NAM is good with picking up those warm profiles but you need to wait to 48 hours before go time to get that data accurately modeled.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I've always wondered how much Environment Canada uses their own models for forecasting vs the other globals that are available to them.  Are the Canadian models tuned for their geographic location?

CMC/RGEM is an outlier right now, so I wouldn't look too much into that until there's agreement.  Usually the NAM is good with picking up those warm profiles but you need to wait to 48 hours before go time to get that data accurately modeled.

Yeah the NAM will be excellent for the midlevel warm nose once we’re inside a couple of days. It has to get the synoptics correct first which it usually takes until about 36-48h out. 

[TheSnowman]

I'm done.   It's Totally Over.  The ONLY FLIGHT left that is possible and wouldn't go through Nashville or BWI early morning Sunday with SW which will get canceled, is a $2000 JetBlue RedEye

This is Over.  

[TheSnowman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bitching for 4yrs eventually pays off? Lets gizzo!

NOT FOR ME!!!!!!  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

NOT FOR ME!!!!!!  

It will. Whether you are home or not, your hood should get a crack at 18”…

[tiger_deF]

4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

NOT FOR ME!!!!!!  

 

[Lucy Pull]

18z GFS doesn’t look to be backing down from its colder solution….yet.

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm done.   It's Totally Over.  The ONLY FLIGHT left that is possible and wouldn't go through Nashville or BWI early morning Sunday with SW which will get canceled, is a $2000 JetBlue RedEye

This is Over.  

I sacrifice $5000 of work in 1996 for that blizzard in Philly was probably 15,000 inflation right now. You can’t spend $2000 on the flight ticket get home to a big storm?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

18z GFS doesn’t look to be backing down from its colder solution….yet.

It’s nw and warmer in the mid levels but should be a huge hit with a better ccb.

[lurker]

8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm done.   It's Totally Over.  The ONLY FLIGHT left that is possible and wouldn't go through Nashville or BWI early morning Sunday with SW which will get canceled, is a $2000 JetBlue RedEye

This is Over.  

Maybe there's a polka band you could catch a ride with?

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I sacrifice $5000 of work in 1996 for that blizzard in Philly was probably 15,000 inflation right now. You can’t spend $2000 on the flight ticket get home to a big storm?

and this is why I drive, flying has gotten to be more a hassle than the time it saves, of course you may hit traffic or something but I actually enjoy it, and I'm an aerospace engineer...

[kazimirkai]

5 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

18z GFS doesn’t look to be backing down from its colder solution….yet.

Still one of the slowest approaches. Doesn't hit me till Sunday evening compared to morning/midday on other models 

[wxsniss]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm thinking that'll get more ironed out by the near terms, like <--48 hours... 

There is a ton of UVM associated with the initial ...stunningly powerful isentropic explosion moving overhead with that deep south source forced over this artic dome we're about to slab into place.  And the models are developing a low pressure underneath all the rising motion as they should. 

But there's not a ton of actual Q-G forcing ( diffiuence mechanical/synoptic lift) so we end up with the weak low.... The problem is transitioning from that to then actually having Q-G forcing them moving into the region...It's sort of overlapping the isentropic lift region moving off...  verrrrrry complex in there as the situation relays from being one mechanism, to a different kind associated with cyclogen. Timing being key ... lending to having enough for the 2nd.  The problem with the latter is that cyclogen needs the dynamics ( moisture and instability), which the leading stuff is escaping with the food, seaward ... kind of serving a plate not sufficient enough to feed the second circumstance.   

However, as we get closer, these two might overlap yet more... ie, consolidate... ?  questions that may be better answered in the 48 hour window.  How much or in time..  The more the consolidation the bigger the 2nd low.  Hell ... even 25% doesn't reduce the lead but will add a ton to the 2nd.  

Great stuff. Your posts read like a thriller that educates.

What I'm looking for in next 72 hours to optimize that handoff from isoentropic to cyclogenic-CCB mechanisms: beyond just looking for an 850/925 low closing as far southwest as we can get it and maintaining easterly inflow lasting to 0z-6z Tuesday, I'm thinking earlier arrival of the energy rounding the trough and better tilt of the trough will help.

At the moment, 0z ICON last night was the best depiction of getting this done I could find, with widespread 20"+ possible in eastern SNE. It's backed off a bit since but there are still hints on all guidance.

Fwiw, 18z NAM at 6z Monday looks alot like 0z ICON... ie., potential to get very interesting Monday.

[tavwtby]

odds they throw Blizzard watch or warning out when this gets cranking??

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s nw and warmer in the mid levels but should be a huge hit with a better ccb.

slowing coming into consensus. let's keep it there and hopefully the warmer models stay put or move towards GFS as a compromise

[RDRY]

Just saw Nick Gregory's broadcast on Fox 5 in the city. Wow, he's been around a long time -- I watched him as a kid in the 80s. One of the best.

[CoastalWx]

Man we gfs 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man we gfs 

Yup bumping up qpf

[cut]

Just keep it snow in SW CT!!!!

[dryslot]

It’s slowly ticking up the qpf up here but still remains on the southern end of guidance