Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Astoriaweather]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

FWIW TWC said 12 to 18 and any brief mixing will not affect snow totals.

It’s still 3 days away. It’s fine to give a range of possibilities, but considering the snow won’t start till early Sunday, this still could  be either a 4 to 8 or 8 to 12 or 12 to 18 type deal for NYC.. Back in the 90s and early 2000s, TV forecasters almost never gave out estimates before 48 hours and usually only 24. Yes, modeling and science has gotten better. But we all know plenty of models can still make fairly large shifts within 72 hours.


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[eduggs]

53 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

How are you gonna say it's wishful thinking when you didn't even look at it? Sounds more like your a Debbie thinking 

I had looked at the maps that were available at the same. And now that I've looked closely, I can confirm my suspicion that the 18z ECM looks nothing like the GFS and did not meaningfully trend towards it. If anything the shortwave near the MS valley that tracks to Detroit looks a little sharper... but overall it's very similar to 12z in all respects.

[weatherpruf]

The upcoming snowstorm will likely join a relatively small number of storms that brought 6" or more to all of the following cities: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Many of those prior storms were epic storms. The list since 1950 is below.

In short, not only will this storm likely be New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years, it could be a really special event, too.

Jan 82 was the plane crash in the Potomac. How it worked back then: I arrived on campus and there was a note taped to the door; classes canceled because it is going to snow. That was the first I’d heard about it. The next day my dad would tell me, you shovel snow like I sh!t…I still miss the guy.


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[TJW014]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its wild how many Mets are going to miss this event because they'll be in Houston for AMS

True. Could be a reason why many are throwing out maps so early in the game.

[weatherpruf]

i will be in california for the duration of this event. but i can recommend this: if your local store is out of dairy milk, consider oat milk. its tasty and cow-less
 
anyways im only a lil jealous of yall but pls enjoy for me:)

Wasn’t much of that left either


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[MANDA]

24 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Who will be the first to post “radar doesn’t look good, if it doesn’t fill in we are gonna bust low”

I can give you a few candidates I'd lay money on.

[Rjay]

Just now, MANDA said:

I can give you a few candidates I'd lay money on.

This system isn't moisture starved by any means. 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Jan 82 was the plane crash in the Potomac. How it worked back then: I arrived on campus and there was a note taped to the door; classes canceled because it is going to snow. That was the first I’d heard about it. The next day my dad would tell me, you shovel snow like I sh!t…I still miss the guy.


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Thank you for sharing your memories. May your father RIP. I miss my father, too. He passed away almost 12 years ago. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

There going with 15:1 snow ratios and high snowfall rates mostly. 

If you're lucky enough to get under a band of 2 to 3 inches an hour or a couple of hours it piles up quickly. 

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

They're going with the nws.  That's fine and I don't have any issue with that.  I kind of like the bold call from the nws.  I definitely disagree with them right now though but what do I know. 

These would be 2/1/21 like totals at least for the city and LI. Much as I think this will be an impressive storm here I don’t see that kind of an outcome at least here. 

[Prue11]

10 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said:

It’s still 3 days away. It’s fine to give a range of possibilities, but considering the snow won’t start till early Sunday, this still could  be either a 4 to 8 or 8 to 12 or 12 to 18 type deal for NYC.. Back in the 90s and early 2000s, TV forecasters almost never gave out estimates before 48 hours and usually only 24. Yes, modeling and science has gotten better. But we all know plenty of models can still make fairly large shifts within 72 hours.


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Seen it happen before. 48 hours before Nemo in 2013 TWC had me in a 1-3” range. Went ended up with 30”

[weatherpruf]

Seen it happen before. 48 hours before Nemo in 2013 TWC had me in a 1-3” range. Went ended up with 30”

Got about 6 out of that one but we were never supposed to be in it out here, so it was cool. Mostly lost a lot to front end rain.


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[Rmine1]

26 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I mean as of right now sleet is likely to cut down on totals for a large chunk of the subforum no matter what some of our posters say. 

So more of a sleet fest for a chunk of the forum?

[eduggs]

29 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

On the edge of what?

What the heck are you talking about? Monster snowstorm headed right for you. Just enjoy it. I can’t even believe the stuff I’m reading in this forum.

You have 0 chance of waking up with 4 inches of snow on Monday morning.

This is supposed to be a scientific forum that looks at models and discusses them.

 

you have 1 inch to one and a half inches of precipitation moving into an airmass that is pure arctic.

Even if this forums wildest deranged fantasies come true of an all sleet fest you’re gonna have more than 4 inches crap on the ground when all is said and done.

 

A lot more. Step back from the imaginary cliff edge you and an echo chamber walked yourselves onto over the past 72 hours.

 

 

It's interesting how being objective and balanced about a snow threat can upset some people so much. Everything has to be positive and rosy and amazing or the sensitive types freak out.

Yes I will enjoy whatever snow falls probably more than most people. And the edge I was referring to is the threshold of something historical that gets remembered and mentioned in future years. Yes I do think 6"+ is likely in and around NYC, but 4" is plausible on the low low end if several things trend negatively. Just as 18" is plausible on the high end. Anyone who's followed weather for a while knows nothing is ever guaranteed. 12 hours of snow to sleet to dryslot should be a lot of fun. It's a high impact event. But if we can somehow get north of the dryslot, it could morph into the 24 hour plus event that some models were showing 2 days ago... and that a lot of the online/media hype is based on.

[jbenedet]

Anyone have a good NAO dataset they could share? Something more than the ncep teleconnection forecast.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

FWIW TWC said 12 to 18 and any brief mixing will not affect snow totals.

This from the station that for years posted snow totals and temperature records for Dulles airport as part of WDC records. 

[donsutherland1]

From the list of snowstorms I provided earlier, I checked Islip's climate record. Islip's record covers all the snowstorms beginning with the January 1964 blizzard. Only the January 29-31, 1966 blizzard brought less than 6" to Islip (5.0").  My current thinking is that Islip will see 4"-8", but we'll see if that holds up.

[MANDA]

More recon, this time over the Gulf going into the models.

[weatherpruf]

So more of a sleet fest for a chunk of the forum?

Could be, but this looks like a good amount of snow first. That said… I can give a list as long as my arm of storms that were near misses…Paul kocins’ book has a whole chapter on them.


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[Astoriaweather]

5 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Seen it happen before. 48 hours before Nemo in 2013 TWC had me in a 1-3” range. Went ended up with 30”

I am old enough to vaguely remember the Blizzard of 93. And even though that storm was pretty well modeled, considering the era, I honestly don't think anyone saw a map of likely snow accumulations until the day before the storm. If you did, it was something vague like "at least six inches expected"

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what's with the 6's? every decade big storm

If the pattern progression continues this year, Central Park should record a 34.2 inch storm. Math at work. 

[Big Jims Videos]

Hoping for 8+ at the beach.  Glad the thump is coming during daylight hours. 

[Amped]

Euro front band is nuts for you guys. It moves through quickly but its  3"/hr min over those 2 hours.

[Wannabehippie]

Anyone planing on going for a Jebwalk?

 

[MANDA]

Out of our area but check out this sounding from RDU area.  

Warm nose is rather deep and freezing layer is very shallow just a little above the deck at about 1000 mb. level.

Some locations down that way are going to get crushed with ZR and be without power for days in bitter cold.  Bad scene.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Could be, but this looks like a good amount of snow first. That said… I can give a list as long as my arm of storms that were near misses…Paul kocins’ book has a whole chapter on them.


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There’s a ton of moisture being thrown over a strong expansive overrunning dome this time which makes it different from most SWFEs and makes for a wide expanse of snow ahead of the mix line. That’s how DC is also in line for a 6”+ event here. 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

So more of a sleet fest for a chunk of the forum?

I sure hope not.  I'm thinking "a bunch of snow" followed by a significant period of sleet then back to some light snow. Idk how far north the sleet gets...maybe hpn?  There's still plenty of time left to adjust all of these thoughts.  

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 21Z SREF Total QPF (87H) mean 

 

 

Total  snow / sleet mean (10:1)

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro front band is nuts for you guys. It moves through quickly but its  3"/hr min over those 2 hours.

Yea it's probably going to really rip for a time. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Out of our area but check out this sounding from RDU area.  

Warm nose is rather deep and freezing layer is very shallow just about 1000'  off the deck.

Some locations down that way are going to get crushed with ZR and be without power for days in bitter cold.  Bad scene.

There’ll definitely be a zone somewhere from likely N/C Texas around Dallas to Waco, maybe Austin to the Carolinas that get hammered with ice and possibly devastating in some places.