Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Snowlover11]

Good ol' goofus. Hey atleast no mixing issues

[SACRUS]

 

30 hours of mostly light to mod snow and total QPF 0.5 - 0.8 (back to the colder less QPF yesterday on 19zz GFS)

 

[Wxbear25]

Hell, the GFS is almost too suppressed haha

 

The 12z GFS was a perfect compromise between the ICON and like the 18z GFS, where that piece in Canada caught our southern energy, but not enough to basically help tilt it and drive it inland

in the 18z case, the northern piece instead consolidates over Ontario, increasing confluence and forcing a much earlier transition to the coast.

the problem is, that confluence also shreds the s/w much faster so the WAA is much less pronounced 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Good ol' goofus. Hey atleast no mixing issues

many of us would be happy if this verified

[SACRUS]

 

The AI GFS is a bit better

 

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs will fold once again. It always does this with snowstorms. 

Fold to what? there is no firm consensus. 6-12 for most of the region seems like a good call right now. 

[psv88]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Fold to what? there is no firm consensus. 6-12 for most of the region seems like a good call right now. 

agreed

[Jt17]

 
The AI GFS is a bit better
 

I'd say a lot better... Looks like .3 more QPF than GFS


.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Fold to what? there is no firm consensus. 6-12 for most of the region seems like a good call right now. 

fold to euro ai, plus 30% more qpf and higher ratios than 10:1 say 14:1 to 16:1 and you have the exact solution for your backyard!

[Franklin0529]

I'm gonna ride with the euro AI. All winter when it locks in a solution 120hrs an under its been Money. It hasn't wavered much when all other models are all over the place 

[snowman19]

Earthlight just tweeted that he can’t believe snowmaps are going out already on his weather account. And he’s 100% right. Models are jumping all over the place.

We are just under 4 days away from this storm and it’s very, very possible we see huge changes. Hurricane Hunter recon flights are scheduled to go out and they are increasing the number of weather balloon launches. All the “players” get on the field tonight and all the new recon flight/balloon data is going to get ingested in the models. Don’t be shocked if we see some very drastic model changes over the next 24+ hours

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Earthlight just tweeted that he can’t believe snowmaps are going out already on his weather account. And he’s 100% right. Models are jumping all over the place.

We are just under 4 days away from this storm and it’s very, very possible we see huge changes. Hurricane Hunter recon flights are scheduled to go out and they are increasing the number of weather balloon launches. All the “players” get on the field tonight and all the new recon flight/balloon data is going to get ingested in the models. Don’t be shocked if we see some very drastic model changes over the next 24+ hours
 

Anybody making snow maps before Friday AM is an idiot. If you want to make note of potential hazards? Sure, but I better not see numbers on a map

[BoulderWX]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

fold to euro ai, plus 30% more qpf and higher ratios than 10:1 say 14:1 to 16:1 and you have the exact solution for your backyard!

Please stop - you’re entering the opposite of Kris4life territory. 

[SnoSki14]

Love seeing the GFS more subdued. It usually means the most amped models are probably too amped and the correct solution is between the two. 

Euro/GFS AI look to be on the money right now 

[Mo Snow]

Updated guidance from Mt. Holly shows 80% chance of 12"+ for the area

 

[hudsonvalley21]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Earthlight just tweeted that he can’t believe snowmaps are going out already on his weather account. And he’s 100% right. Models are jumping all over the place.

We are just under 4 days away from this storm and it’s very, very possible we see huge changes. Hurricane Hunter recon flights are scheduled to go out and they are increasing the number of weather balloon launches. All the “players” get on the field tonight and all the new recon flight/balloon data is going to get ingested in the models. Don’t be shocked if we see some very drastic model changes over the next 24+ hours
 

Once the information has been inputted, we’ll see these changes and hopefully will lock on to a set forecast. As always, subject to change. 

[Mo Snow]

Which runs will have the recon flight data?

[psv88]

As always, take the blend of the GFS and Euro and thats your solution...it worked out in this past weekends storm, to a T

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Earthlight just tweeted that he can’t believe snowmaps are going out already on his weather account. And he’s 100% right. Models are jumping all over the place.

We are just under 4 days away from this storm and it’s very, very possible we see huge changes. Hurricane Hunter recon flights are scheduled to go out and they are increasing the number of weather balloon launches. All the “players” get on the field tonight and all the new recon flight/balloon data is going to get ingested in the models. Don’t be shocked if we see some very drastic model changes over the next 24+ hours
 

I don't expect any drastic changes even with that data. Very strong consensus for 4 days out. There will be some waffling and minor adjustments as is normally the case but nothing more. 

[winterwarlock]

is anyone else not a fan of the using the NBM map for snowfall this far out. I know Mt Holly uses it to make their forecasts close in but 4 days out it would seem to be irrelevant as a map given the model spread currently and in most situations.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't expect any drastic changes even with that data. Very strong consensus for 4 days out. There will be some waffling and minor adjustments as is normally the case but nothing more. 

I’m thinking it will be for the progression and start times.

[binbisso]

Gefs are good. Only 1 member well west near Pittsburgh. Mean has more snow than operational 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Fold to what? there is no firm consensus. 6-12 for most of the region seems like a good call right now. 

Fold to the more aggressive models. Gfs is always more suppressed compared to the other models for every storm.

Im around your ballpark but I like 8-12 with a higher potential.

[Prue11]

18z shifted south a bit 

[North and West]

is anyone else not a fan of the using the NBM map for snowfall this far out. I know Mt Holly uses it to make their forecasts close in but 4 days out it would seem to be irrelevant as a map given the model spread currently and in most situations.

I mean, they know more than we do, so I don’t see why we shouldn’t trust their knowledge in this.


.

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't expect any drastic changes even with that data. Very strong consensus for 4 days out. There will be some waffling and minor adjustments as is normally the case but nothing more. 

I completely disagree but that’s what the board is here for. If the experts at the National Weather Service thought we had consensus and there would be no drastic changes and the forecast was locked in, they wouldn’t be sending Hurricane Hunters out on recon missions and increasing the number of weather balloon launches 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I completely disagree but that’s what the board is here for. If the experts at the National Weather Service thought we had consensus and there would be no drastic changes with the forecast locked in, they wouldn’t be sending Hurricane Hunters out on recon missions and increasing the number of weather balloon launches 

Or it could be precautionary since it's such a massive high impactful storm?  Especially in the south where historic icing is possible with the colder solutions.

[ILoveWinter]

21 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Gefs are good. Only 1 member well west near Pittsburgh. Mean has more snow than operational 

At this lead time, we really only should be looking at the ensemble mean - and the trends within them - anyway 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Or it could be precautionary since it's such a massive high impactful storm? 

impactful because its going to affect a significant amount of the population many in a negative way.....

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Gefs are good. Only 1 member well west near Pittsburgh. Mean has more snow than operational 

Best GEFS yet. Much better than OP which was probably more fluky than anything. 

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I completely disagree but that’s what the board is here for. If the experts at the National Weather Service thought we had consensus and there would be no drastic changes and the forecast was locked in, they wouldn’t be sending Hurricane Hunters out on recon missions and increasing the number of weather balloon launches 

They usually send them out for most major, impactful systems and it helps refine forecasts and gives us more data which is always good but it won't have huge ramifications for this type of system. 

If we were talking a Boxing Day scenario where 50 miles in track made all the difference then sure.