eduggs Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Every model has at least advisory level snow from nyc south. With ratios won't take much to get to warning level. Just because we may not see the foot plus amounts this far north doesn’t mean it can't be a good storm I agree that even modest QPF can make for a good snowstorm with cold temperatures. But I don't think we can write off a big storm either. It's early. IMO the 18z ECM was the best run in several cycles for the model. Ensembles, GFS/CMC/ECM, and AIs are all solid or workable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Rjay said: We're also 5+ days out Yeah that too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, eduggs said: I agree that even modest QPF can make for a good snowstorm with cold temperatures. But I don't think we can write off a big storm either. It's early. IMO the 18z ECM was the best run in several cycles for the model. Ensembles, GFS/CMC/ECM, and AIs are all solid or workable. Yeah I agree. Our big ones always come north inside 72 hours so we have plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Every model has at least advisory level snow from nyc south. With ratios won't take much to get to warning level. Just because we may not see the foot plus amounts this far north doesn’t mean it can't be a good storm I may the be the minority here but I’m over 3-6” events. honestly just a nuisance at this point. They’re cool early in the season. Maybe im Just being greedy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Prue11 said: I may the be the minority here but I’m over 3-6” events. honestly just a nuisance at this point. They’re cool early in the season. Maybe im Just being greedy We are all size queens here, friend. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Big shift north on the GFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Big shift north on the GFS Surprised it took so long for somebody mention it lol decent shift!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS is North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Surprised it took so long for somebody mention it lol decent shift! . More than decent. Fully phasing in western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Solid hit 4 to 8 with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: Big shift north on the GFS does that mean i stay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: seen enough of these set ups to know this ain't our storm. too cold, suppression, whatever, can't win em all. well, can't win any big events these days.....i can't shovel big amounts anyway. 3-6 is fine. I hired a contractor for this weekend. I did my fair share this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: does that mean i stay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Cmc looks explosive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: It’s setups like this that I can’t stand people that root for cold weather. As always, the cold has to be well timed and not too entrenched or it’s suppression city. I’d rather it be in the 60’s and sunny all winter with the occasional well timed cold and storm then a fridged winter where the track stays South. February 2010 was one of the most painful times for me as a snow lover. This one is giving me those vibes unfortunately but plenty of time left for changes obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc looks explosive Phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CMC about to go boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Every model run will have changes. Trends and time will tell the results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc looks explosive Models phasing western trough. Huge amount of energy getting slammed against a massive cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Last I saw was a 30% chance of snow in the long range for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow Pants tent material right there. Good God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models phasing western trough. Huge amount of energy getting slammed against a massive cold dome. Very high ratios snow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very high ratios snow also. One of those times where the weenie snow maps actually comes in handy. Temps are in the low teens when the snow comes in...that's nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, MJO812 said: too far out for a perfect run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago That's a sweet CMC run. And at 150hr when most of the precipitation appears done, there's more energy back in the midwest suggestion this could be more extended than shown. It looks like the 18z ECM at the end of its run except with the southern stream ULL escaping east first to deliver a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CMC and GFS both moved towards a more efficient phase, great to see 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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