Jt17 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 100% agree - not even worth worrying about. I’m just looking at QPF - easier for forecasting and consistency. It's going to be 15-20 degrees colder than pretty much any snow event we've had this year. It's worth contemplating. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Wonder what Eric Webb thinksWho is that?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ok ok ok guys. You're getting a short break from him. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Jt17 said: It's going to be 15-20 degrees colder than pretty much any snow event we've had this year. It's worth contemplating. . We finally dont have to worry about the rain snow line. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: It's going to be 15-20 degrees colder than pretty much any snow event we've had this year. It's worth contemplating. . Feel free to apply whatever ratio you think - I’m not debating anyone - just going with what has worked well for me over the last 20 years. many posters have given detailed explanations about several other factors that go into ratios, temperature is only one component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, BoulderWX said: Feel free to apply whatever ratio you think - I’m not debating anyone - just going with what has worked well for me over the last 20 years. many posters have given detailed explanations about several other factors that go into ratios, temperature is only one component. i think 15:1 sounds reasonable for the overrunning, if the coastal takes over than those will probably drop to around 12:1 or so! so figure 0.80 liquid on average 12-14 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ok ok ok guys. You're getting a short break from him. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2003 was traumatic for me (in Boston). We planned a PD weekend getaway to Montreal area and I tracked the huge mid-atlantic storm for a week sad I was going to miss the 6-12" fringe targeting SNE. It was only Friday when it became apparent what was going to happen. You know the rest. We sat in Quebec under -20 temps while Boston broke the '78 snowfall record. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 What a nasty ice storm setup stretching from TX to the Carolinas. Some of those maps, if they verified would be crippling. Give me plain rain or cold/dry over ZR any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS made the same shift towards more phasing and now has 0.75" liquid to NYC Gotta like that look. Just need to keep it or improve on it. If we can keep these 18Z trends going at 00Z and then 12Z tomorrow that would be great....at least on the EURO, GGEM and UKMET. If the GFS comes to the party and stays so much the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: What a nasty ice storm setup stretching from TX to the Carolinas. Some of those maps, if they verified would be crippling. Give me plain rain or cold/dry over ZR any day No one likes a lot of freezing rain. Give me .005to .10 of an inch after a big snowfall, It looks fantastic. Anything more just destructive and no need for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I am half expecting next 24-48 hour model trends to be towards greater coastal development, lower central pressures for the coastal low and a consequent beefing up of QPF over NJ, PA, NY and s NE. There is a fairly robust energy peak around Jan 26-27 so the slower this evolution develops, the better the results. Current record snowfalls on 25th and 26th of January are 10.0" from 1905 (an 11.0" 2d event) and 12.3" from 2011 (a 20" 3d event). There could be a run on one or even both of those depending on timing. It is very difficult to break record low mins in this urban heat island situation but easier to match record low max, those are in the 12-14 F range around Sunday-Monday. I think Saturday may be very cold all day but it has less chance because the date record for Jan 24th (6F 1882) is also the monthly lowest value for low max. Oddly, December and February both have lower values (2F 1917 and 4F 1918). There has not been a sub-10F max at NYC since Jan 21, 1985 set a record of 9F. There was a 10F reading in Jan 1994, and 13F in Jan 2018. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is all you need to see. trend has been ongoing for two days now It is trying real hard for something special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 17 minutes ago, North and West said: Who is that? . No idea but he said earlier the storm wasn't going to come north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No idea but he said earlier the storm wasn't going to come north He's a met. Also, someone claimed he said that. Should probably get a quote about exactly what he did or didn't say. It might not have been so cut and dry (or maybe it was!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No idea but he said earlier the storm wasn't going to come north He's a climatologist and meteorologist, works at a lab over in New Mexico somewhere. He's pretty good at the pattern recognition and climatology stuff. But he also said the weekend storm wouldn't trend west either. So he has his moments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013634552833425732 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Who did you pay? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, mgerb said: He's a met. Also, someone claimed he said that. Should probably get a quote about exactly what he did or didn't say. It might not have been so cut and dry (or maybe it was!). check out his latest post.. lots of people pretty upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ok to be fully transparent, I suspended the wrong person I'm so sorry @Franklin0529 2 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, ineedsnow said: check out his latest post.. lots of people pretty upset OK, yeah. That was pretty unequivocal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, mgerb said: He's a met. Also, someone claimed he said that. Should probably get a quote about exactly what he did or didn't say. It might not have been so cut and dry (or maybe it was!). Here's what I found upon looking. It seems there was a bit more to his reasoning than was perhaps implied. Having said that, I believe that there is still enough uncertainty associated with the lead time for a more phased/northward solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Take me back to January 23, 2016. I’d give $$$ to experience a storm like that again. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 A note about the EURO. It has been trying to pop a surface low south of L.I. on the last few runs at some point Monday. That is what keeps the precipitation going thus adding to the QPF forecast totals. That is kind of a wildcard in my opinion. If it happens, where it happens and how strong it gets. Something to watch on future runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 40 minutes ago, North and West said: to my house! . When you bring out the horse and buggy I know 287 is on!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 While this is the NYC subforum, it's worth noting that there is likely going to be a crippling ice storm with 1" or more of ice accretion in a fairly wide swath from Texas to NC on Saturday into Sunday – where exactly that sets up is not a given yet – and north of the ice storm, 8-12” snowfall amounts are looking likely from northern Texas to northern TN/NC and into VA. This could be an historic US winter storm if the current models verify: see the nationwide snowfall and ice accretion graphics from the NBM model... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Can't wait to see some of the outrageous solutions the same gonna start pumping out Tommorow an Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Can't wait to see some of the outrageous solutions the same gonna start pumping out Tommorow an Thursday Welcome back!! I'm so sorry. I felt so bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Rjay said: Welcome back!! I'm so sorry. I felt so bad. All good brother!! Lfg an bring this bad boy home!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ok to be fully transparent, I suspended the wrong person I'm so sorry @Franklin0529 Ban em all and let God sort em out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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