January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea the 06z Euro gets hanky with the sleet and zr line. If I were in NC or Southern VA I'd be upset.

Come on, anyone who is anyone knows anytime a model shows 2 feet in NC 5-6 days out it almost never happens and trends north. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Monster storm, I’ll take the QPF bomb it’s showing with a small sacrifice to sleet at the end. Vast majority of our precip is heavy snow. 

[Weather Will]

Euro at 6Z basically held from 0Z but was a a little SE with snow/ mix line. 1 pm Sunday, 4, 7, 10

[mitchnick]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea the 06z Euro gets hanky with the sleet and zr line. If I were in NC or Southern VA I'd be upset.

It's really incredible how that old adage you don't want to be in the bullseye at 5 days holds true again.

[RevWarReenactor]

The trends north are concerning since we still have a few days. Its not going to take a huge shift to where mixing starts to have a significant impact on snow totals for I-95. 

[dailylurker]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Monster storm, I’ll take the QPF bomb it’s showing with a small sacrifice to sleet at the end. Vast majority of our precip is heavy snow. 

So would i. But I'm afraid the trend north isn't stopping today.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Buddy1987]

Sigh… F’n cooked down here.. and those freezing rain maps are what nightmares are made of.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

....Maybe just ugly rimmed flakes is my uneducated guess

You really need to think about school and getting that education. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I’ll allow it, don’t like that mix line though 

If I'm at 20.6" I'll tolerate a bit of ice. Whatever falls will become a glacier for at least two weeks maybe three.

[mappy]

Whoever is riding the mix line is gonna be dumped on before any flip 

[mappy]

Total precip went up .2 for everyone compared to 0z

[Eskimo Joe]

Lol...CWG saying accumulating snow "not quite a lock".

[H2O]

Once the cut off gets more data and the other pieces into place it will be interesting if there are adjustments as we get closer. 
 

Getting a good front end thump will help offset the flip 

[mappy]

Just now, mappy said:

Total precip went up .2 for everyone compared to 0z

 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You really need to think about school and getting that education. 

My P.G county education can only take me so far

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

So would i. But I'm afraid the trend north isn't stopping today.

We know how this movie ends for our latitude if North trend continues. A lot of qpf, but sleet sacrifice. Hoping it stalls today. Overall I'm comfortable with where we're at. I like how the low is moving out to sea, not climbing the coast and cranking in hot ocean winds

[RevWarReenactor]

The Euro, verbatim is a near perfect track for I-95. We kiss the mixing line and max out the snow totals. But just 24 hours ago we were worried about supression.

Whats this going to look like on the models in 24 hours? 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

 

How does that song go...slide to the left

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Key words: "especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic"

 

[Weather Will]

Have to start giving the globals some weight now that we are under 5 days but ensembles are still useful until Friday.  NW crew finally looks in line to be in the bullseye for heaviest snowfall but hopefully the Northern extent of the mixing peaked at 0Z so everyone cashes in.

[Ephesians2]

[H2O]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

The Euro, verbatim is a near perfect track for I-95. We kiss the mixing line and max out the snow totals. But just 24 hours ago we were worried about supression.

Whats this going to look like on the models in 24 hours? 

No one was worried about suppression yesterday. Two days ago, yes. But all day yesterday it was C Va jack with only the gfs south and it was still a good storm

[Ralph Wiggum]

What did 6z ukie do?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

So would i. But I'm afraid the trend north isn't stopping today.

I think the majority of the overrunning will be snow at this point.  If it trends far enough that we lose that I’ll be very surprised. 

[baltosquid]

I mean, verbatim that is a move south after last night. The GFS also holds serve. UKMET is slower with the Baja low and reduces the NS’s reach down towards it at the end of its run and seems like it would not repeat the amped madness from last night. I want to see the mixing line move further south on some guidance of course, but this was a step in the right direction. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Whoever is riding the mix line is gonna be dumped on before any flip 

A trade we’re making with this stronger phasing is more precip for a mix risk. And potentially that’s a trade that could get us more snow in total. Going to see some ridiculous QPF predictions from the mesos by tomorrow.

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Lol...CWG saying accumulating snow "not quite a lock".

Technically 99% isn’t a lock?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

A trade we’re making with this stronger phasing is more precip for a mix risk. And potentially that’s a trade that could get us more snow in total. Going to see some ridiculous QPF predictions from the mesos by tomorrow.

Technically 99% isn’t a lock?

Prediction: 99%

Boom: 100%

Bust: 98%

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What did 6z ukie do?

Pretty sure it only goes to 66hrs 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Both 6Z EPS and AI ensembles trended slightly warmer for Sunday at the 850 temp level.