January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

News of the weekend has broken containment as people are talking about it reaching below 0 with a foot of snow in convos I’ve passed by. Man the urge to correct them is strong. 

Apple Weather has like 23-27”… so that’s part of the problem. 

[bncho]

 

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

"Snow likely" 5 days out is rare. 

Yea, but that only means a 6% chance of it snowing each day. I’m just kidding, @ravensrule

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If/when the GFS shows a MECS, that's when it will really break out because I think that's what the Apple weather app uses predominately?  

I don’t know, because mine has 15-18” for Sunday alone… with a high of 14  

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If/when the GFS shows a MECS, that's when it will really break out because I think that's what the Apple weather app uses predominately?  

It uses the Euro

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

It uses the Euro

Charlottesville has 26-32” on the app between SAT & SUN. Let the hysteria begin. 

[CAPE]

Been out splitting wood for the upcoming vodka cold, so catching up on 12z. Both the GEFS and EPS look completely fine for this range. GEPS ofc looks awesome. Can't bother caring much about the AI models at this point.

 

[high risk]

27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

At least until we get convergence on the individual members. This is still a substantial spread on the GFS.  Still ~8 of 20 members that are duds for most of us.

 

        First, remember that the GEFS is now 31 members.   I think there were dissemination limitations that prevent all members from being sent to various servers, but the 20 displayed in that image are only a subset.

       That said, there are certainly a bunch of GEFS members that are duds, but my guess is that those are the ones that keep the cutoff stuck in the far Southwest.    Certainly limited support for that idea outside of the GFS/GEFS camp.

 

[csnavywx]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

The one nitpick I have is that the lead TPV lobe is slowing over time, strengthening the eastern lobe of the Arctic high. If it were sliding nicely off the coast, I'd agree more with him. Probably aborts the cut and forces a transfer earlier than the 06Z AIFS. The 12Z runs came back down to earth a bit.

[Bob Chill]

20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This arctic intrusion reminds me so much  of PDII with its alignment and positioning. I can still picture the 1040 HP on the WBAL Morning news that morning of the storm drilling cold air into the area with moisture attacking. It was 12° and snowing all day. Just surreal. This has the ability to deliver something like that…a cold smoke. 

Agree but it's weird that the analog isn't showing on CIPS or CPC. There are a lot of good storms showing on the lists though including Jan 96, second Feb storm 2010, Jan 2011, and mid Feb 2014 to name a few. The 2007 sleet storm is also in the mix and that one could have been a major snow event. The analog lists are loaded but not with PD2.  There must be some key differences at 500mb keeping that one at bay. IIRC, PD2 didn't have a big -NAO so it could be that feature. Not really sure. 

[csnavywx]

Remember to use "max temp in profile" maps where possible or take a look at 700mb even if the 850mb-SFC maps are all below freezing. Warm nose can get pretty elevated in these scenarios.

[wasnow215]

14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Charlottesville has 26-32” on the app between SAT & SUN. Let the hysteria begin. 

I never even realized it did it until last year. My teenage son has it and he would show me that it would go from 3 to 6 inches of snow something like that if that's what the European model was showing for where we live. And then the next day if it went up to 8 to 12 it would show that on the next model. And then if even the next model it went to one to 2 inches it would show that it's completely ridiculous 

[CAPE]

Ok just looked at the GEFS and EURO AI Ens runs. They look supportive of the GEFS and EPS respectively, but more juiced up.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Agree but it's weird that the analog isn't showing on CIPS or CPC. There are a lot of good storms showing on the lists though including Jan 96, second Feb storm 2010, Jan 2011, and mid Feb 2014 to name a few. The 2007 sleet storm is also in the mix and that one could have been a major snow event. The analog lists are loaded but not with PD2.  There must be some key differences at 500mb keeping that one at bay. IIRC, PD2 didn't have a big -NAO so it could be that feature. Not really sure. 

Also noticed something similar when assessing the analogs posted back in the Medium Range channel. Very likely the case, but the surface progs are uncanny in similarity. More ways to skin a cat I’m sure. I’m hesitant to sound the full alarm yet since we still have plenty of time to go, but I do like seeing the main players on the field already with the initial impacts into the plains less than 72 hrs away. Seems like we are gearing up for a long week of tracking…at a minimum. I’m still wary of a suppression in this setup, but every monster storm comes with some worry. 

[HighStakes]

I'm fine with NC/VA border and southern VA being shown with the high totals. That almost never verifies unless the storm is suppressed and slide under us. A miss to the south is possible but not all that concerning at the moment. If significant accumulations make it well into PA it is highly likely that areas to the south are experiencing heavy sleet and zr even with a strong HP. This type of storm will almost end up with the bullseye somewhere in the northern Mid-Atlantic. We've seen the GFS remain very stubborn with these type of set ups. Maybe it comes around sooner than later but also may not get on board until late Thursday/Friday. Wrong Thread. lol

[MDScienceTeacher]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

Okay I watched so you don't have to. To summarize he says that he thinks he it is gonna cut for no real scientific reason other than probably because he live in the midwest and that “these come northwest typically”. 

 

I should have stopped watching when he said that he is a Notredame fan but temporarily he will be an Indiana fan because they are good.

 

Anyways he is probably guessing right and we are gonna get sleet because we suck at snow.

[MN Transplant]

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Remember to use "max temp in profile" maps where possible or take a look at 700mb even if the 850mb-SFC maps are all below freezing. Warm nose can get pretty elevated in these scenarios.

I was just poking around the Euro and had to go all the way down to Rocky Mount/Raleigh before a warm nose at 725mb showed up.  It is amazing how cold these runs are.

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, DSF said:

I was literally just telling my son about Feb 2010 the other day before this storm showed up.

I really hope my kids get to see something like that.

I feel jaded having lived through the Jan/Feb 2015 "Winter Blitz" up in Boston. Two 20-inchers + two 15-inchers in just 20 days.

[CAPE]

Latest AFD from Mount Holly on the upcoming potential event-

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is signal for an impactful winter storm to
impact portions of the area this weekend, however quite a bit of
uncertainty remains.

Signals of the upper level pattern by late week and the weekend
becomes quite active between the northern and southern stream jets.
The key elements embedded in these features are currently located
over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, so it`ll likely take a few
more days for guidance to become better aligned. In the meantime,
almost all available guidance depicts an area of low pressure
developing over the Southern Plains on Friday before tracking
eastward into the Deep South on Saturday. Beyond Saturday, its
uncertain where the track of the low may go. The main player here is
the Arctic high to the north and how strong the high becomes. Some
guidance depicts a very strong high near 1044mb, which results in a
suppressed storm track keeping any significant precipitation to the
south. Whereas, a weaker high would result in a more northerly storm
track and potentially bringing significant accumulation to the area.

Considering that the system is 5-6 days out, the signal for a winter
storm to impact at least portions of the area do appear to be
stronger than usual. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM show a
40-60% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 20-40% chance of 6+ inches
of snow for areas south of Philadelphia. Probabilities do lessen
further north. Even the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index
(WSSI-P), depicts a 40- 60% chance of moderate level winter
storm impacts to the south of Philadelphia. Obviously a lot can
change between now and the weekend, but users should keep a
close eye on the forecast over the coming days.

[peribonca]

18z nam not looking too bad at the end of it's run with the Baja low.

[bncho]

Just now, peribonca said:

18z nam not looking too bad at the end of it's run with the Baja low.

The NAM would've been one hell of a run

[WxUSAF]

Cool graphic of the 12z Euro AI ensembles from Tomer.  Basically, our region (focused over @Bob Chill, but covering most of us) has lower dispersion on snow totals relative to central PA up to NYC and BOS and the deep south.

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I was just poking around the Euro and had to go all the way down to Rocky Mount/Raleigh before a warm nose at 725mb showed up.  It is amazing how cold these runs are.

Reminds me of a certain storm 30 years ago

 

[CAPE]

LOL just realized there is an actual thread for this threat. Kind of early but the signal is strong.

[CAPE]

Latest Natty blend- I think it has ingested the 12z model runs..

[Paleocene]

Weren't we complaining about euro overdoing cold at range (D6+) earlier this winter? Apologies if I made that up. Not trying to deb, but I thought I remembered discussion of that.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Latest Natty blend- I think it has ingested the 12z model runs..

IIRC, the Euro is often too late for the NBM. Still, a general 6" - 10" regionwide is solid.

[BristowWx]

40 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Yea, but that only means a 6% chance of it snowing each day. I’m just kidding, @ravensrule

Snow likely low of 12.  Pretty common I’d say as much  as unicorns and wives who encourage you to eat more red meat and have boys trips to Vegas. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, the Euro is often too late for the NBM. Still, a general 6" - 10" regionwide is solid.

Maybe, but there was a big jump in snowfall from 12z to 15z run, and 18z looks exactly the same.

[Rvarookie]

Fully expecting not to be in jackpot on this one and end up with the typical pings, but could we expect some potential for thunder snow?