January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.

 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.

You are southeast of me.  I am counting everything blue or green.  About 14.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Nomz said:

In maybe 24 hours there will be watches+ from probably mexico to NYC

No watches in our neck of the woods until Friday PM. We're 72+ hours out, and watches don't get issued until we're ~48 hours out.

[clskinsfan]

If anybody wants DT's most recent take here it is:

 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, seems like we're dealing with a whole different animal.  Remember when we were worried about suppression?  

I mean it makes sense. That's the worst part. We are dealing with a completely different synoptic setup. For example we compare the 0z of today with yesterday's 0z and it shows the difference. Starting out at Friday 1pm we can already see the differences with how the old 0z has a more positively tilted SW and a further east NS lobe

Compare that to 0z of today and the SW is more neg tilt, the NS is further west and importantly takes more energy from the parent lobe!

So if we move this forward in time to Saturday afternoon we can see how much this changes our setup. Previously we are looking at a strong lobe over the northeast reducing the transient SE ridge and a messy phase happening out west between the NS and SW. 

Meanwhile today's 0z completely flips the script. It has the more consolidated phase out west AND because more of the NS broke west from the parent lobe we have less confluence out East. These two processes are NOT independent. 

I mean roll this forward and look at the consequences of these interlinked processes.

Our confluence in the Northeast is gone. We have nothing to stop this thing from ramming the primary to Pittsburg if it wanted to. I mean for comparison again lets see the old 0z

Despite still having that phase out west its fine as we have the confluence to block it. We need the models to rapidly switch course with how much of the NS lobe it chops to go phase out west if we want the ability to prevent this thing from cutting.  

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

No watches in our neck of the woods until Friday PM. We're 72+ hours out, and watches don't get issued until we're ~48 hours out.

You mean tomorrow PM?

[Rhino16]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

RNK will probably have watches up in the next 6-12 hours

Looks like they just went up now!

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

No watches in our neck of the woods until Friday PM. We're 72+ hours out, and watches don't get issued until we're ~48 hours out.

Considering the possible magnitude of event they may put them out little earlier. Watches already made it to WV so we may see some tomorrow afternoon. Not Friday pm. That would be 24hrs out as it starts Saturday night. 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS is steady as she goes. Slight hair north 

[weathercoins]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No watches in our neck of the woods until Friday PM. We're 72+ hours out, and watches don't get issued until we're ~48 hours out.

Math isn’t mathing unless you’re in Boston 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No watches in our neck of the woods until Friday PM. We're 72+ hours out, and watches don't get issued until we're ~48 hours out.

RNK went ahead and issued... thats about 60 hours for them

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1244 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-220400-
/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T1800Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Danbury, Pulaski, Marion, Wytheville, Hot
Springs, Hinton, Covington, Blacksburg, Rainelle, Duo, Quinwood,
Floyd, Amherst, New Castle, Lexington, Union, Lewisburg,
Alderson, Whitetop, Stuart, Roanoke, Yadkinville, Yanceyville,
Appomattox, Volney, Troutdale, Bluefield, Fincastle, Sparta,
Rocky Mount, Hix, Independence, Salem, Buena Vista, Danville,
Clifton Forge, Eden, Galax, Lynchburg, Boone, Radford, Flat Top,
Bedford, Tazewell, Dobson, Martinsville, Keysville, Bland,
Wilkesboro, South Boston, West Jefferson, White Sulphur Springs,
and Pearisburg
1244 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations
  between 8 and 14 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina,
  central, south central, southwest, and west central Virginia, and
  southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

[Jersey Andrew]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS is steady as she goes. Slight hair north 

How does this model differ from regular Euro?

[Chris78]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Considering the possible magnitude of event they may put them out little earlier. Watches already made it to WV so we may see some tomorrow afternoon. Not Friday pm. That would be 24hrs out as it starts Saturday night. 

Definitely tomorrow if guidance remains the same

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

0 consistency on that thing. EPS was much more similar for each member. 

GEFS is better than the GFS op but still pretty far down on the list of things I care about

I would rank importance in terms of what I weight this way

1)EPS

2)EC AIFS

3)Euro Op

4)UKMET

5)GEPS

6)GEFS

7)GGEM

8) tea leaves

9) wooly bear caterpillars 

10) the almanac

11) Op GFS 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS is steady as she goes. Slight hair north 

Total precip.

[stormtracker]

Nothing standing out attm.   Still early

[weathercoins]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Definitely tomorrow if guidance remains the same

Would not be surprised if they do early tomorrow, too.  First “extreme” event possibility since 2016 I think.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

 

You are southeast of me.  I am counting everything blue or green.  About 14.

Blue? So 0.5-0.7 is a whiff? Damn

[Kevin Reilly]

42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just like Feb 2010. Cool, noted thanks.

Well technically that 2009-2010 seasons wasn’t a one and done season it was a bookend season. 12/22/09 15-23”

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

How does this model differ from regular Euro?

Allen Iverson adds his input.

 

 

 

ps- for real, it uses AI and analogs to give its own interpretation of the Euro physics based model.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No watches in our neck of the woods until Friday PM. We're 72+ hours out, and watches don't get issued until we're ~48 hours out.

I've seen them do 48 hours before...which would be tomorrow dude.  Not Friday

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

How does this model differ from regular Euro?

My take: It's actually been the best op model in terms of verification scores over the last 6 months or so...and it was the one model to never tease us with that disaster last February.  It's new but so far its been impressive.  Having it on our side here is a big deal.  

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My take: It's actually been the best op model in terms of verification scores over the last 6 months or so...and it was the one model to never tease us with that disaster last February.  It's new but so far its been impressive.  Having it on our side here is a big deal.  

IIRC the GFS never fully came on board either. A bit strange given how god-awful that model usually is.

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

RNK went ahead and issued... thats about 60 hours for them

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1244 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-220400-
/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T1800Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Danbury, Pulaski, Marion, Wytheville, Hot
Springs, Hinton, Covington, Blacksburg, Rainelle, Duo, Quinwood,
Floyd, Amherst, New Castle, Lexington, Union, Lewisburg,
Alderson, Whitetop, Stuart, Roanoke, Yadkinville, Yanceyville,
Appomattox, Volney, Troutdale, Bluefield, Fincastle, Sparta,
Rocky Mount, Hix, Independence, Salem, Buena Vista, Danville,
Clifton Forge, Eden, Galax, Lynchburg, Boone, Radford, Flat Top,
Bedford, Tazewell, Dobson, Martinsville, Keysville, Bland,
Wilkesboro, South Boston, West Jefferson, White Sulphur Springs,
and Pearisburg
1244 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations
  between 8 and 14 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina,
  central, south central, southwest, and west central Virginia, and
  southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

That is SUPER early for them. Shows the magnitude and how impactful this is going to be.

[TSSN+]

Watches knocking on the door 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

So far things are a hair east with the western lobe of the NS on the Euro which shouldn't hurt

[weathercoins]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Watches knocking on the door 

 

Going to be a beautiful map by tomorrow evening 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Watches knocking on the door 

 

Wow look at that coverage 

[stormtracker]

So far..Euro looks slightly flatter out front AT THE TIME OF THIS POSTING AT THE PANEL IM LOOKING AT RIGHT NOW, which is the last panel loaded.   I don't k now if that means anything, just stating what it looks like.

[Wxtrix]

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EC AIFS very steady run to run as usual, small changes, but still suggests mostly snow for us.