January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Dude, i was comparing run to run panel to panel.  I'm not into future casting when I'm not sure.   Like come on

You're good, you do you and keep going. 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Orientation of the CCB is very different this run, can't quite figure out why. To defend @bncho a bit the only drier panels are really 108/111, but think that's delayed, not denied

and I guess 102 re: above, but doesn't show as clearly on WxBell

Dec 09 also was modest until the coastal took over. Different systems but two-part systems are pretty common here.

[Scraff]

2 days ago the GFS was garbage and the worst model ever created outside the CRAS. Now we bow to the new king? This place is all kinds of fucked up and weird. 

[North Balti Zen]

Where is @NorthArlington101 with the pretty maps now?

Thanks @stormtracker as always - and thanks for folks letting him do his thing. For newcomers - it is MUCH better for a one person to do the PBP - people can weigh in as it passes the point of interest. Helps us all sort and assimilate the information and discussion. 

[NorthArlington101]

[bncho]

Sorry y'all, I'll let Randy do his thing next time.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS

[mappy]

Just now, Ji said:

stole this from our own board. 

I just posted that to you lol

[clskinsfan]

Hard to find anyone in our thread that would be pissed about this snow depth map. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

You’re right thanks. Just wish people would let Randy do the pbp. We can go into details like drier or whatnot once it’s done. 

I don't mind whoever does it, but i just wish they'd get it right.  I might be overly cautious, who knows.   I'm not gonna go out here and say boom!  OMG!!!111!! when I don't know or it's just not that great.  But whatever.  It's a good run, let's get back on track. 

[TSSN+]

Qpf bump up

 

 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

You’re right thanks. Just wish people would let Randy do the pbp. We can go into details like drier or whatnot once it’s done. 

Well and the other thing is we’d rather Randy be conservative and say it’s a wee bit drier than it end up wetter. If he honked it was a qpf bomb and ended up drier, we’d have him tied up in the corner 

[bncho]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Qpf bump up

 

 

i was right tho 

[Weather Will]

My snow mats did the trick!!!!!

[caviman2201]

GFS snows for like 30hrs in the DMV

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[hstorm]

GFS 10:1 maps show 12-14 inches for most of DC area.  (Sorry if already posted . . . I only saw Kuchera images.)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The 850 warm push on the 12z AI GFS at 18z Sunday and 0z Monday is about the same, noise differences between 6z and 12z.  I'm looking for that to stop trending north and hopefully trend back south a little. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

To my eye a key difference is the 12z GFS pops the coastal low quicker and slightly further south. That stops any intrusion of mid level warming and maintains precipitation as all snow. It's a wonderful run for just about everyone. Even the folks in far southern Maryland and the tidewater of VA that mix get a solid event, then appear to flip back to several hours of accumulating snow.

You can see in the 96 to 102 panel a couple pages back the transfer is starting

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS

We are in the GFS wheel house now, right? 

[Pityflakes]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS

A run for the archives

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

To my eye a key difference is the 12z GFS pops the coastal low quicker and slightly further south. That stops any intrusion of mid level warming and maintains precipitation as all snow. It's a wonderful run for just about everyone. Even the folks in far southern Maryland and the tidewater of VA that mix get a solid event, then appear to flip back to several hours of accumulating snow.

Yep, this is what we want to continue to trend toward. Maybe throw in a stall off OCMD for fun.

[Warm Nose]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

This has been really consistent across modeling. I'm amazed and it's terribly exciting, lol.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Could be timing but the CMC appears to coming in a little south of 0z. 

[Quasievil]

It's difficult but I am going to refrain from taking this GFS run this seriously right now. If the Euro still holds or doesn't amplify quite as much as its 6Z, then it's cause to relax a bit. The GFS has been a mess so far.

[psuhoffman]

The thermal boundary quickly collapses back south as the coastal takes over on the GFS.  That run was pretty close to perfect for 95 NW in terms of track and speed.  

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Well and the other thing is we’d rather Randy be conservative and say it’s a wee bit drier than it end up wetter. If he honked it was a qpf bomb and ended up drier, we’d have him tied up in the corner 

Oh I’d troll him badly via text haha

[LP08]

CMC slightly less amped through 93

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

2 days ago the GFS was garbage and the worst model ever created outside the CRAS. Now we bow to the new king? This place is all kinds of fucked up and weird. 

The thing is that for as bad as the GFS was a day or two ago being the last to join the party, it isn't a COMPLETELY trash model and can be looked at without distain closer to an event.  That said watch it slam a low into Cleveland for the 18z or show suppression to Naples.  

[psuhoffman]

Of course I still stand by my wish that the GFS either didn't exist or was run AFTER the other globals so it didn't get more attention than it deserves (which in my opinion is about NONE).  But if we are going to look at it, it might as well be awesome! 

[osfan24]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The thermal boundary quickly collapses back south as the coastal takes over on the GFS.  That run was pretty close to perfect for 95 NW in terms of track and speed.  

Would like to see the qpf start creeping up now. 1.2ish during a 30 hour snowstorm. It’s cool but our greats would have twice that in 30 hrs, maybe even more lol.