Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, stormtracker said: Dude, i was comparing run to run panel to panel. I'm not into future casting when I'm not sure. Like come on You're good, you do you and keep going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Orientation of the CCB is very different this run, can't quite figure out why. To defend @bncho a bit the only drier panels are really 108/111, but think that's delayed, not denied and I guess 102 re: above, but doesn't show as clearly on WxBell Dec 09 also was modest until the coastal took over. Different systems but two-part systems are pretty common here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 days ago the GFS was garbage and the worst model ever created outside the CRAS. Now we bow to the new king? This place is all kinds of fucked up and weird. 3 7 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Where is @NorthArlington101 with the pretty maps now? Thanks @stormtracker as always - and thanks for folks letting him do his thing. For newcomers - it is MUCH better for a one person to do the PBP - people can weigh in as it passes the point of interest. Helps us all sort and assimilate the information and discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Sorry y'all, I'll let Randy do his thing next time. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 12Z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Ji said: stole this from our own board. I just posted that to you lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Hard to find anyone in our thread that would be pissed about this snow depth map. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, mappy said: You’re right thanks. Just wish people would let Randy do the pbp. We can go into details like drier or whatnot once it’s done. I don't mind whoever does it, but i just wish they'd get it right. I might be overly cautious, who knows. I'm not gonna go out here and say boom! OMG!!!111!! when I don't know or it's just not that great. But whatever. It's a good run, let's get back on track. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Qpf bump up 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, mappy said: You’re right thanks. Just wish people would let Randy do the pbp. We can go into details like drier or whatnot once it’s done. Well and the other thing is we’d rather Randy be conservative and say it’s a wee bit drier than it end up wetter. If he honked it was a qpf bomb and ended up drier, we’d have him tied up in the corner 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TSSN+ said: Qpf bump up i was right tho 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 My snow mats did the trick!!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GFS snows for like 30hrs in the DMVSent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GFS 10:1 maps show 12-14 inches for most of DC area. (Sorry if already posted . . . I only saw Kuchera images.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The 850 warm push on the 12z AI GFS at 18z Sunday and 0z Monday is about the same, noise differences between 6z and 12z. I'm looking for that to stop trending north and hopefully trend back south a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: To my eye a key difference is the 12z GFS pops the coastal low quicker and slightly further south. That stops any intrusion of mid level warming and maintains precipitation as all snow. It's a wonderful run for just about everyone. Even the folks in far southern Maryland and the tidewater of VA that mix get a solid event, then appear to flip back to several hours of accumulating snow. You can see in the 96 to 102 panel a couple pages back the transfer is starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS We are in the GFS wheel house now, right? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS A run for the archives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: To my eye a key difference is the 12z GFS pops the coastal low quicker and slightly further south. That stops any intrusion of mid level warming and maintains precipitation as all snow. It's a wonderful run for just about everyone. Even the folks in far southern Maryland and the tidewater of VA that mix get a solid event, then appear to flip back to several hours of accumulating snow. Yep, this is what we want to continue to trend toward. Maybe throw in a stall off OCMD for fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Paleocene said: This has been really consistent across modeling. I'm amazed and it's terribly exciting, lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Could be timing but the CMC appears to coming in a little south of 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 It's difficult but I am going to refrain from taking this GFS run this seriously right now. If the Euro still holds or doesn't amplify quite as much as its 6Z, then it's cause to relax a bit. The GFS has been a mess so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The thermal boundary quickly collapses back south as the coastal takes over on the GFS. That run was pretty close to perfect for 95 NW in terms of track and speed. 23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Well and the other thing is we’d rather Randy be conservative and say it’s a wee bit drier than it end up wetter. If he honked it was a qpf bomb and ended up drier, we’d have him tied up in the corner Oh I’d troll him badly via text haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 CMC slightly less amped through 93 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: 2 days ago the GFS was garbage and the worst model ever created outside the CRAS. Now we bow to the new king? This place is all kinds of fucked up and weird. The thing is that for as bad as the GFS was a day or two ago being the last to join the party, it isn't a COMPLETELY trash model and can be looked at without distain closer to an event. That said watch it slam a low into Cleveland for the 18z or show suppression to Naples. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Of course I still stand by my wish that the GFS either didn't exist or was run AFTER the other globals so it didn't get more attention than it deserves (which in my opinion is about NONE). But if we are going to look at it, it might as well be awesome! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, psuhoffman said: The thermal boundary quickly collapses back south as the coastal takes over on the GFS. That run was pretty close to perfect for 95 NW in terms of track and speed. Would like to see the qpf start creeping up now. 1.2ish during a 30 hour snowstorm. It’s cool but our greats would have twice that in 30 hrs, maybe even more lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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