January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[midatlanticweather]

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GFS OP  is prone to big jumps.  That’s why everyone says rely on ENS over 3 days out.  

And one part of our brains knows that. But the other part of our subconscious Ji represents yelled and screamed anyway

[batmanbrad]

fro those who follow Bernie Rayno, he has posted another video on X within the last hour... naturally he believes the GFS is "off its rocker"...

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

That's probably the closest the red has been to MD so far!

[MillvilleWx]

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Bob chill!

Been busy and I come back to this output. Good God almighty. Danville, VA would be pounded into the F’in stones with that. GFS will come north and scale back in magnitude, but this is truly turning into what could be a special storm for so many. EC and GEM leading the charge along with the AIFS and Ensemble output. 
 

The hi-res are absolutely going to have some bonkers runs later this week and weekend. I like what I am seeing. 

[CAPE]

Nice storm after the storm potential. I mentioned this several days ago in a post. Probably belongs in the other thread, but no one is paying much attention to that at this point lol. This is where its at.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Holy crap!!

We are now in silly mode.  That’s the mode after storm mode.  Strap in 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Good to see the snow depth almost the same or at least in-line with the snowfall.  I guess that's to be expected given how cold it is supposed to be.  This isn't something that will just melt off and we have nothing much on the ground even if the actual "accumulation" is higher.

[T. August]

Gefs AI big shift north. DC went from .6 to 1.1” qpf. Gets .8” to the M/D line.

[pazzo83]

31 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

The 2016 blizzard obviously was a totally different animal.  Mainly it was a far better-defined scenario (and a Nino) that the models can handle more easily.  I've said this before, but I swear a week before it hit while looking at model discussion on this site, every single model clicked into place for a MAJOR event.  It was only the details that were to be determined.  But we ALL knew it was coming, and game on right then.  From that point the models really didn't waver outside those fine details.  I believe Feb. 2010 (the first one, Feb. 5-6) was similar, long lead where it was well pinned down what was coming.

the only major changes in 2016 were bringing the NYC area into the game.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Been busy and I come back to this output. Good God almighty. Danville, VA would be pounded into the F’in stones with that. GFS will come north and scale back in magnitude, but this is truly turning into what could be a special storm for so many. EC and GEM leading the charge along with the AIFS and Ensemble output. 
 

The hi-res are absolutely going to have some bonkers runs later this week and weekend. I like what I am seeing. 

Yes.  I am very happy to see the GFS back in line with essentially all other guidance for this region and that (hopefully!) its 12Z cycle was just an aberration that won't happen again.  Lends a lot more confidence to at least a really solid warning-level event here with decent potential for a lot more upside.

[WEATHER53]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And probably continuing to snow for about 8 more hours 

[WxUSAF]

In some of the lightest green #blessed

 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yes.  I am very happy to see the GFS back in line with essentially all other guidance for this region and that (hopefully!) its 12Z cycle just an aberration that won't happen again.  Lends a lot more confidence to at least a really solid warning-level event here with decent potential for a lot more upside.

Being honest I was never sweating the 12Z GFS run. We dont have a big storm without that model losing it 4 or 5 days before onset. It is like clockwork. 

[IronTy]

Anybody on the inside have access to Cantore's flight plans?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Being honest I was never sweating the 12Z GFS run. We dont have a big storm without that model losing it 4 or 5 days before onset. It is like clockwork. 

Yeah, more or less.  I was alarmed and concerned but when the 12Z CMC, UKMET, Euro, all came in (and the ensembles, including the GEFS), I considered the GFS to be a major outlier solution.

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Anybody on the inside have access to Cantore's flight plans?

Cantore is headed to Washington DC.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Cantore is headed to Washington DC.

Great I better get ready here then to be buried!  

[MillvilleWx]

19z NBM is gaudy to say the least. That’s an incredibly impressive signal at this lead. 
 

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Cantore is headed to Washington DC.

I'd ask about Bernie Rayno but he's more of the office type.  Cantore is the field attack dog.  He'll sniff out the jack ahead of time.  

[stormy]

My prediction earlier today that the 12z GFS was only a "blip" nailed it.

GFS is back from 1.5"  to a foot.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

19z NBM is gaudy to say the least. That’s an incredibly impressive signal at this lead. 
 

And that's with the awful 12Z GFS still in the mix, though it apparently is overwhelmed with all the other inputs that were still looking good.  18Z won't be in there until (I believe) the next NBM winter update cycle at 01Z.

[bncho]

Euro AI shift north

[bncho]

where tf is randy?

18z euro baja low less closed off than 12z, it's more east, hr 54

[bncho]

18z Euro Baja low phases super early, at only hr 66

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

where tf is randy?

18z euro baja low less closed off than 12z, it's more east, hr 54

We're on our own for this one.  Can confirm it's more east at 57 than it was at 54.  

[bncho]

Just now, IronTy said:

We're on our own for this one.  Can confirm it's more east at 57 than it was at 54.  

then you're with me. hr 78 now and i dunno how to really say it but it looks like the phase will be cleaner?

[NorthArlington101]

EURO is a sweet run. Waiting for the pretty maps, but we don’t need to worry.

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, bncho said:

then you're with me. hr 78 now and i dunno how to really say it but it looks like the phase will be cleaner?

Bring it home Nacho Man!

[bncho]

Excellent phase, much cleaner than 12z