January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Yeah, central VA jack looks north, as well. 

Was just going to post this. HP was slightly weaker this run. ICON is heavy snow at 9 degrees out this way. Amazing run. 

[weathercoins]

NWS grid forecast for DC has “snow” at 80% Saturday night and Sunday… don’t know the last time I’ve seen such a high pop this far out. 

[jayyy]

9” by 1 pm Sunday in Baltimore on the ICON lol. What a run

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, poprock49 said:

Hey all,

I'm here to add to the barrage of teenagers (HS, I'm roughly between @bncho and @Nomz). Been heavily lurking for about a year but I'm so hyped for this storm I finally decided to post. My APUSH teacher had some sage advice for my class today that I'll share here: "don't get too excited, the energy warms up the atmosphere." lol. 

Let's reel this one in! 

@Solution Man‘s analogy still holds strong, lotta young ones.

[Eskimo Joe]

Posting this for our upper Delmarva, northern MD folks. The 12z "traditional" Euro EPS really upped the ante for Philly. Several double digit hits, and only a few duds (less than 3"). Out of 50 members, I only count 11% (6 members) with less than 3" of snow. Everything else is warning level or better. Again, what a signal from Dr. No at this range.

 

 

[WEATHER53]

25 minutes ago, benjammin said:

That was one time Bob Ryan forecasted 1-2 feet before a flake had fallen. He was usually very conservative (and correct) but when he forecasted that I knew it was going to be good. 

I got to know all the DC Tv Mets and Bob was the most  distant and not a snow lover.  Gary Shore,  Doug  Hill Topper Shutt Tony Pann Tom  Kieran. Clay Anderson and others mostly liked snow and were conversant 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

9” by 1 pm Sunday in Baltimore on the ICON lol. What a run

18z ICON likely would've been a foot plus from I-70 south if it ran further.

[bncho]

This storm looking primed for a NW trend IMO.

Also, @SnowenOutThere should make his own Avengers. Young ones, assemble!

[Eskimo Joe]

12z "traditional" Euro EPS for DCA. Wow.  

 

 

[Chris78]

It probably would of not been as big of hit compared to 12z.

The northern stream was outracing the southern stream on this run. 

But it's the Icon so who really cares that much lol.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z ICON likely would've been a foot plus from I-70 south if it ran further.

Judging by the synoptic presentation and QPF expansion, you’re dead on there. Good run from the Icon FWIW. 

[WEATHER53]

I’m not worried about the low  being stout because it’s going to need to be to survive the strong cold high pushing down on it 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Chris78 said:

It probably would of not been as big of hit compared to 12z.

The northern stream was outracing the southern stream on this run. 

But it's the Icon so who really cares that much lol.

Still would’ve been a really good run for these parts. A tighter cutoff of heavier totals further north, but probably not till north of PA turnpike. Solid diffluent signature with ascent focused over the area. Probably 4-6 more hours of the good stuff, followed by a tapper from southwest to northeast. Good run, even if it wasn’t a top end solution. It’s also the Icon, so it’s just for fun at this point 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Judging by the synoptic presentation and QPF expansion, you’re dead on there. Good run from the Icon FWIW. 

Interesting you say that. I was of the mind that it would have petered out not long after the run ended. No complaints about had that happened, but I suppose the energy that lagged behind would help keep the fun going.(?)

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, mattie g said:

Interesting you say that. I was of the mind that it would have petered out not long after the run ended. No complaints about had that happened, but I suppose the energy that lagged behind would help keep the fun going.(?)

Ninja’d you by seconds, but that’s pretty much it. It would’ve been less of a bomb for northern areas, better for south of the PA Turnpike. There’s more than one way for us to score a big event down this way. North-central VA is probably ground zero at this point. 

[Paleocene]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Was just going to post this. HP was slightly weaker this run. ICON is heavy snow at 9 degrees out this way. Amazing run. 

I know it's the ICON, but to illustrate a point, I am amazed with the temps that these models are spitting out. Feels like forever since we've had cold snow in the metropolitan areas.  Temps in the mid-teens all the way to Richmond during the storm... though a cutoff on a sharp gradient through a Cape May--->Salisbury access where east flirts with freezing.

 

 

[mappy]

Just now, Paleocene said:

I know it's the ICON, but to illustrate a point, I am amazed with the temps that these models are spitting out. Feels like forever since we've had cold snow in the metropolitan areas.  Temps in the mid-teens all the way to Richmond during the storm... though a cutoff on a sharp gradient through a Cape May--->Salisbury access where east flirts with freezing.

 

 

A plus for sure. But too cold and we deal with suppression. Have to find that sweet spot on temps

[Paleocene]

Just now, mappy said:

A plus for sure. But too cold and we deal with suppression. Have to find that sweet spot on temps

Indeed. A fear for northern areas for sure.  While the northern crew was gallivanting in oodles of snow in Feb 2014, we lowlanders were getting spittle and dryslot. Different storm, but I like when I see that 32 degree line well SE of me

[mitchnick]

Fwiw 18z Rgem was not only bringing the Baja vort out but it was looking pretty phased with the N stream at 84hrs.

Precip shield looked very similar to the 12z Ggem too.

[TSSN+]

Rgem looks like it would have remained a smoke show if it kept going. 
 

[CAPE]

I like my Sat night forecast- 80% chance of snow with a low of 13. Bring that shit.

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Fwiw 18z Rgem was not only bringing the Baja vort out but it was looking pretty phased with the N stream at 84hrs.

Precip shield looked very similar to the 12z Ggem too.

Damn it got me be a few seconds 

[Nomz]

Anyone got the fun maps for gfs

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Still would’ve been a really good run for these parts. A tighter cutoff of heavier totals further north, but probably not till north of PA turnpike. Solid diffluent signature with ascent focused over the area. Probably 4-6 more hours of the good stuff, followed by a tapper from southwest to northeast. Good run, even if it wasn’t a top end solution. It’s also the Icon, so it’s just for fun at this point 

 

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Interesting you say that. I was of the mind that it would have petered out not long after the run ended. No complaints about had that happened, but I suppose the energy that lagged behind would help keep the fun going.(?)

 

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It probably would of not been as big of hit compared to 12z.

The northern stream was outracing the southern stream on this run. 

But it's the Icon so who really cares that much lol.

What has stuck out to me today is that there seem to be a pretty wide range of phasing scenarios that still give us a major storm. GFS skunked us because the northern wave was weak and the southern wave didn’t eject and there was no phasing. Seemingly any other combination of shortwave options is giving us SOMETHING. That to me is a major confidence booster that we’re not relying on perfect phasing or timing to get a snow.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Indeed. A fear for northern areas for sure.  While the northern crew was gallivanting in oodles of snow in Feb 2014, we lowlanders were getting spittle and dryslot. Different storm, but I like when I see that 32 degree line well SE of me

I don’t think it will be a complete miss at least 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Did the ICON actually sort of back the time up to a little earlier compared to before (and to other models)?  Seems that for awhile at least this was trending to more a Sunday-Sunday night (and possibly into Monday) thing.

[LP08]

Through 42…maybe a couple ticks better so far on the gfs.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

OK...come on, GFS...go back to what you were showing at 00Z/06Z.

[stormtracker]

GFS looking better out west with the baja wave...further east at  66

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

What has stuck out to me today is that there seem to be a pretty wide range of phasing scenarios that still give us a major storm. GFS skunked us because the northern wave was weak and the southern wave didn’t eject and there was no phasing. Seemingly any other combination of shortwave options is giving us SOMETHING. That to me is a major confidence booster that we’re not relying on perfect phasing or timing to get a snow.

Seems like it which is always a great sign. I’m getting pretty excited, but still holding back expectations until 00z Thursday. Like the trends so far.