January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[winter_warlock]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yeah its not done-

 

 Holy crap.  By the looks of that were looking at another 12 hours at least!!! In my opinion!!!

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

A red tagger earlier said 12:1 or so was reasonable, I think. 

check your texts

Wasn’t me, but I concour! 12:1 average through storm with some chance at 15:1 or better at times. Need this to hold friend! 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 Holy crap.  By the looks of that were looking at another 12 hours at least!!! In my opinion!!!

Gotta be careful there. Thats the 6h QPF map. Not radar. 

[HighStakes]

Enjoy the 50 degree day on Thursday!

18Z Euro has it at 2 degrees here Saturday morning and never gets above 13 during the snow when the run ends Sunday afternoon.

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I agree(you saw my post a couple pages back). 12z does actually eject significant energy from the SW, via a partial phase with the energy dropping south from the Pac NW. 18z doesnt, its flatter, but is slightly better with the silly snow maps. Ofc that's only part of the story- the timing/depth of NS energy associated with the TPV is another component.

Yep. I think it does have a better NS come in afterwards though. As a slightly bantery side note I always dreamed of becoming one of the posters that you or some other respectable mets/posters would agree with so thanks! Made my day lmao 

[NorthArlington101]

Oranged. Wish it was confidence pulling it up but we’ll take. 

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

And that's 10:1. I can guarantee you with the temps being modelled we will do far better than that. It's a foot region wide most likely.

This depiction will be a blockbuster 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, HighStakes said:

Enjoy the 50 degree day on Thursday!

18Z Euro has it at 2 degrees here Saturday morning and never gets above 13 during the snow when the run ends Sunday afternoon.

 Yeah gonna be bitter cold after the storm.  Whatever snow we get will definitely be around for a while!!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Oranged. Wish it was confidence pulling it up but we’ll take. 

Just jumped to enhanced threat!!!

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

15,000ft deep DGZ! Pants tent.

 

Even better sounding to the south where there's more moisture. It really is uncanny how this sounding is nearly the exact same as that GFS run of the 60 inch PA storm for this time period. 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Look what's coming in up top at 144hrs. That'll definitely enhance snowfall. I think with that High pressure puling off the NE coast driving in cold ocean air and that trough coming in, there will be a part 2 for us northern folks.

Just checked 12z and that trough over Iowa wasn't there, just a tail of the trough over eastern Canada. .

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

7H FGEN ALWAYS comes into play for these setups. A secondary jack will occur on the northern fringe and that can actually be pretty prolific. That happened with a few storms in the past where people in Central PA were puking dendrites and got 1-2’ while we got hammered further south with the 85H FGEN and traditional deform. More than one way to score, and that stuff is a long way from getting resolved. I like what the ECMWF and AIFS are depicting. GFS improved too, just a bit different on evolution. 

[SnowenOutThere]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

7H FGEN ALWAYS comes into play for these setups. A secondary jack will occur on the northern fringe and that can actually be pretty prolific. That happened with a few storms in the past where people in Central PA were puking dendrites and got 1-2’ while we got hammered further south with the 85H FGEN and traditional deform. More than one way to score, and that stuff is a long way from getting resolved. I like what the ECMWF and AIFS are depicting. GFS improved too, just a bit different on evolution. 

Adding onto your post with a real example of the 18z Euro and that setup across Mappy and PSU land. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Adding onto your post with a real example of the 18z Euro and that setup across Mappy and PSU land. 

Mitchland too!

[StormyClearweather]

Not sure if anyone posted the EPS, but it's a hold or slightly improved.

 

12Z:

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Adding onto your post with a real example of the 18z Euro and that setup across Mappy and PSU land. 

Dendrite bomb

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Adding onto your post with a real example of the 18z Euro and that setup across Mappy and PSU land. 

That's easily 15:1 if not 20:1 up here. We always do well with ratios here when the set up supports it.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS AI: still lot of big hits but also some whiffs.

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

That's easily 15:1 if not 20:1 up here. We always do well with ratios here when the set up supports it.

I’m not kidding, I thought about you when I saw that sounding and this FGEN map. This is a classic setup for something like this to materialize. 

[bncho]

I want to see this south shift end at 0z. Obviously, as depicted, all these runs are AMAZING! But I need that south trend to stop, because it's scaring the absolute shit out of me.

[mitchnick]

Snowfall total on 18z EuroAI is incredible and there is a blizzard ongoing on the last frame sure to add more had the run been longer.

[snowmagnet]

15 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Enjoy the 50 degree day on Thursday!

18Z Euro has it at 2 degrees here Saturday morning and never gets above 13 during the snow when the run ends Sunday afternoon.

When it gets up to 50 degrees, people will balk that "it's too warm to snow".  Or it won't stick.  It was close to 70 a few days before 2016.

[wxdude64]

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Wasn’t me, but I concour! 12:1 average through storm with some chance at 15:1 or better at times. Need this to hold friend! 

I think everyone would be thrilled with 12/15 to 1 ratios! 

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

I want to see this south shift end at 0z. Obviously, as depicted, all these runs are AMAZING! But I need that south trend to stop, because it's scaring the absolute shit out of me.

We've still got a long way to go. it may end up being south, but let's let it play out.

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Adding onto your post with a real example of the 18z Euro and that setup across Mappy and PSU land. 

I'm guessing the gray area is the  enhanced area

[nj2va]

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Should be some more after that?

Probably a lot more with what’s still lined up behind it.

[Paleocene]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

I want to see this south shift end at 0z. Obviously, as depicted, all these runs are AMAZING! But I need that south trend to stop, because it's scaring the absolute shit out of me.

the EPS maps that stormyclearweather posted suggest a north tick of precip IMO (from 12z - 18z)

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yep. I think it does have a better NS come in afterwards though. As a slightly bantery side note I always dreamed of becoming one of the posters that you or some other respectable mets/posters would agree with so thanks! Made my day lmao 

This is your breakout season my friend--you are ascending 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m not kidding, I thought about you when I saw that sounding and this FGEN map. This is a classic setup for something like this to materialize. 

We all are well overdue. Very encouraging to see even the latest GFS run get accumulating well into central PA. Should be a great week of tracking. It's time to be greedy lol. Hopefully we're tracking the next threat as we're watching the AFC/NFC Championship games and snow falling on Sunday 

[wasnow215]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If you like weenie ratios we’ve hit it already.
Would be a nice storm.

Maybe I missed someone posting this but since it's 18z run tonight, still a few hours of snow to go past 18z Sunday.