January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IronTy]

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

What a rock fucking solid model.

Probably better than 10:1 ratios for alot of the storm

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro AI is a CLASSIC Mid Atlantic snowstorm. Primary low drives into Tennessee, then hands of everything to the coastal quickly and cleanly. 8" - 12" cold powder, weekend snow.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

12" snowstorm, 8" snowstorm, 24" snowstorm on the AI Euro. JFC

For shits and gigs show us the full run total 

[bncho]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

For shits and gigs show us the full run total 

posted already

[87storms]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

No wonder it was delayed lol. It was pumping out 3 massive snow storms. 

MJO 6 to 8 ftw?

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, IronTy said:

Lmao, VA is ground zero

[T. August]

Canadian ens probability of 6”

[Cobalt]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Debbie Downer wants to remind everyone that there are reasons we have had like 1 KU in a La Nina in the history of the Mid-Atlantic region since the last glacial maximum

Even just modest snowstorms in La Ninas are rare and to be appreciated any time they happen. This is missing Feb 12th from last year, but here's a list of every 5"+ La Nina snowstorm at DCA in the 21st century. The 2010s had just one instance.

[Mikeymac5306]

Just now, IronTy said:

 

[stormtracker]

Euro is basically the same vs 6z so far

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Lmao, VA is ground zero

Poor folks out at DCL, they miss out on the action with only 2ft of snow. 

[EHoffman]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'll break my posting hiatus just to say: lol.

 

I'm officially in storm mode

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Poor folks out at DCL, they miss out on the action with only 2ft of snow. 

Probably 40” with the ratios you guys get out there.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Even just modest snowstorms in La Ninas are rare and to be appreciated any time they happen. This is missing Feb 12th from last year, but here's a list of every 5"+ La Nina snowstorm at DCA in the 21st century. The 2010s had just one instance.

Interesting to note that 60% of them were in January.

[stormtracker]

Still no noteworthy changes through 69.  hehehehehehe

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Still no noteworthy changes through 69.  hehehehehehe

Then you're doing it wrong

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Still no noteworthy changes through 69.  hehehehehehe

Where did you learn to be so sick from?

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Holy shit. That is 2016 shit right there. Please god let it be right. 

[IronTy]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Holy shit. That is 2016 shit right there. Please god let it be right. 

If we could go into the first week of February with 4ft of snow on the ground I could accept another ten years of no snow.  

[LeesburgWx]

I think I muted Ji by mistake - he’s nowhere to be found

[andyhb]

What in the 2010 hell was that AIFS run?

[stormtracker]

Ok, about to get into the wonky part of the site where it starts flooding me with SFC panels way before the H5...so I'll just be going off of that...which sometimes makes it hard to tell what will happen next.  but I mean, if it's big, i'll know without all that 

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

I have three children, I would perhaps give a nut to make that UK run come to fruition. Or the CMC’s 18” blizzard too. 

I'd give both. (of my kids or my nuts)

[batmanbrad]

a solid 11-14" for most of our area using 10:1 by early Sunday evening says the AI Euro, wow

[Winter Wizard]

I have not seen potential like this a long time in the Mid-Atlantic. Gives 2010 vibes. Just need to bring it home and hope it doesn't get squashed south. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, andyhb said:

What in the 2010 hell was that AIFS run?

Amazing is what it was. Severance pay for a decade of fail.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Holy shit. That is 2016 shit right there. Please god let it be right. 

It's 3 storms. Jan/Feb 2010 redux

[snowmagnet]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A lot of that depends on the setup and how developed the storm is in advance. A fast moving NS wave diving down out of Canada and rounding the base is usually moisture starved before the turn and typically has a narrow stripe. Very hard to nail down even at 48-72 hours.

This event is nothing like that. Precip will already be breaking out 4 days in advance and the main energy isn't embedded in fast flow. Precip will also cover a pretty large area. Its a classic setup for SE/MA winter wx. For those reasons we'll prob safely know the bulk of who's getting winter wx by 96 hrs with the edges and mix line location causing the most uncertainty. People solidy in the middle of the snow zone by 96hrs can feel pretty good about getting hit. 

Finer details like max stripes and total qpf in general will always wobble even at 24-48hrs. Subtle differences in track and strength can cause fairly large shifts in amounts. All this said, I expect good agreement with all models for the bulk of the snow zone by 0z Tuesday. Famous last words.... lol

Eta: I meant 0z Wednesday runs or tomorrow night. Not tonight's 0z suite

Thank you!

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is basically the same vs 6z so far

did anyone mention that we lost 12 inches on the AI from 6z to 12z from the 2 storms