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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Debbie Downer wants to remind everyone that there are reasons we have had like 1 KU in a La Nina in the history of the Mid-Atlantic region since the last glacial maximum

Even just modest snowstorms in La Ninas are rare and to be appreciated any time they happen. This is missing Feb 12th from last year, but here's a list of every 5"+ La Nina snowstorm at DCA in the 21st century. The 2010s had just one instance.

32636742d306bbca4392ce25eddb781a.png.d89d741159d75f74c97a99cc6dfa5e64.png.cfd87a41ef980ebfab691073b959f67c.png

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Even just modest snowstorms in La Ninas are rare and to be appreciated any time they happen. This is missing Feb 12th from last year, but here's a list of every 5"+ La Nina snowstorm at DCA in the 21st century. The 2010s had just one instance.

32636742d306bbca4392ce25eddb781a.png.d89d741159d75f74c97a99cc6dfa5e64.png.cfd87a41ef980ebfab691073b959f67c.png

Interesting to note that 60% of them were in January.

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A lot of that depends on the setup and how developed the storm is in advance. A fast moving NS wave diving down out of Canada and rounding the base is usually moisture starved before the turn and typically has a narrow stripe. Very hard to nail down even at 48-72 hours.

This event is nothing like that. Precip will already be breaking out 4 days in advance and the main energy isn't embedded in fast flow. Precip will also cover a pretty large area. Its a classic setup for SE/MA winter wx. For those reasons we'll prob safely know the bulk of who's getting winter wx by 96 hrs with the edges and mix line location causing the most uncertainty. People solidy in the middle of the snow zone by 96hrs can feel pretty good about getting hit. 

Finer details like max stripes and total qpf in general will always wobble even at 24-48hrs. Subtle differences in track and strength can cause fairly large shifts in amounts. All this said, I expect good agreement with all models for the bulk of the snow zone by 0z Tuesday. Famous last words.... lol

Eta: I meant 0z Wednesday runs or tomorrow night. Not tonight's 0z suite

Thank you!

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