TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 46 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side. If we can’t cash in on this then we just suck. Not sure I ever seen a precip mean that high for that far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 46 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Nice to see that the GFS Ensemble can see the northern Shenandoah valley precip hole clearly from 10 days out. The models know lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: The models know lol 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 hours ago, stormtracker said: That beast is just killing us. squash and suppress machine. Luckily, prob won't turn out like this 6z GFS no squashy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I think @Eskimo Joe - outlined a emergency management nightmare scenario a few years ago as it pertained to ice. It was a true horrific narrative if I remember... You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ...An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening. Sign me up for the Horror. I read Nuclear War: A Scenario over the holidays. This doesn't seem as bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening. This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering That seems....extreme. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. yeah, colder than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Scraff said: GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. Little snow band but h5 on another planet from 6z so pretty much who cares till we get some kind of consistenty from any of these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? Some Nugget Nectar. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: yeah, colder than 6z yea thats not good. thats suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Ji said: yea thats not good. thats suppressive It’s waffling from run to run. I’m more interested in what’s getting tee’d up for next weekend. Looks like maybe some stj action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That seems....extreme. Maybe it was Master of Disaster My memory isn't what it used to be in my youth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? Great question! Probably some Laughing Cow cheese. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Great question! Probably some Laughing Cow cheese. South County! I'm about 10 minutes away from their amazing brewery and restaurant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS way different run to run with the potential overrunning next weekend, definitely will be looking to the ensembles to get a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening. And doth quoth the Raven: "Snow more" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I like the look of what the CMC appears to be cooking up for next weekend, cold as balls with multiple waves of moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I like the look of what the CMC appears to be cooking up for next weekend, cold as balls with multiple waves of moisture... We certainly will have our chances must got to cash it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Ooh, 258 the shortwave in the SW is ejecting with cold in place and NS action to boot. Cue the Jaws music. Why we gotta be so far out for the good stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ooh, 258 the shortwave in the SW is ejecting with cold in place and NS action to boot. Cue the Jaws music. Why we gotta be so far out for the good stuff? Theres chances in front of that too just going to take a few small changes in h5 to make them better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Suppression as stated prior biggest concern for this window. But that wiggle room will bode will for farther South zones at least as we get nearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, TSSN+ said: Theres chances in front of that too just going to take a few small changes in h5 to make them better Buckle up ladies and gentlemen....its close to go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Buckle up ladies and gentlemen....its close to go time. Weenies got to get up off the mat because there are big battles to fight ahead 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Buckle up ladies and gentlemen....its close to go time. Warm up the @stormtracker bus? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Gfs with 3 shots over 6 days there. Really close to an extended event too just missed some h5 energy that run. The signals are there let’s do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, yoda said: Warm up the @stormtracker bus? Only if @Scraffisn't driving, after seeing his fridge....dear lord! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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