January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

46 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side. 

If we can’t cash in on this then we just suck. Not sure I ever seen a precip mean that high for that far out. 

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nice to see that the GFS Ensemble can see the northern Shenandoah valley precip hole clearly from 10 days out.

The models know lol

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The models know lol

[mattie g]

10 hours ago, stormtracker said:

That beast is just killing us.  squash and suppress machine.  Luckily, prob won't turn out like this

6z GFS no squashy.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I think @Eskimo Joe - outlined a emergency management nightmare scenario a few years ago as it pertained to ice. It was a true horrific narrative if I remember...

You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

[somecallmetim]

41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

...An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

Sign me up for the Horror. I read Nuclear War: A Scenario over the holidays. This doesn't seem as bad.

[Kmlwx]

47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering  

That seems....extreme.

[Scraff]

GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. 

yeah, colder than 6z

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. 

Little snow band but h5 on another planet from 6z so pretty much who cares till we get some kind of consistenty from any of these models. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. 

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? 

[anotherman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? 

Some Nugget Nectar.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

yeah, colder than 6z

yea thats not good. thats suppressive 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

yea thats not good. thats suppressive 

It’s waffling from run to run. I’m more interested in what’s getting tee’d up for next weekend. Looks like maybe some stj action?

[Kmlwx]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That seems....extreme.

Maybe it was Master of Disaster  

My memory isn't what it used to be in my youth

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? 

Great question! Probably some Laughing Cow cheese. 

[anotherman]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Great question! Probably some Laughing Cow cheese. 

South County!  I'm about 10 minutes away from their amazing brewery and restaurant.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS way different run to run with the potential overrunning next weekend, definitely will be looking to the ensembles to get a better idea. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

And doth quoth the Raven: "Snow more"

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I like the look of what the CMC appears to be cooking up for next weekend, cold as balls with multiple waves of moisture...

[TSSN+]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I like the look of what the CMC appears to be cooking up for next weekend, cold as balls with multiple waves of moisture...

We certainly will have our chances must got to cash it in 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ooh, 258 the shortwave in the SW is ejecting with cold in place and NS action to boot. Cue the Jaws music.

Why we gotta be so far out for the good stuff? 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ooh, 258 the shortwave in the SW is ejecting with cold in place and NS action to boot. Cue the Jaws music.

Why we gotta be so far out for the good stuff? 

Theres chances in front of that too just going to take a few small changes in h5 to make them better 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Suppression as stated prior biggest concern for this window. But that wiggle room will bode will for farther South zones at least as we get nearer. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Theres chances in front of that too just going to take a few small changes in h5 to make them better 

Buckle up ladies and gentlemen....its close to go time.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Buckle up ladies and gentlemen....its close to go time.

Weenies got to get up off the mat because there are big battles to fight ahead 

[yoda]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Buckle up ladies and gentlemen....its close to go time.

Warm up the @stormtracker bus?

[TSSN+]

Gfs with 3 shots over 6 days there. Really close to an extended event too just missed some h5 energy that run. The signals are there let’s do this. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, yoda said:

Warm up the @stormtracker bus?

Only if @Scraffisn't driving, after seeing his fridge....dear lord!