January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

46 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side. 

If we can’t cash in on this then we just suck. Not sure I ever seen a precip mean that high for that far out. 

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nice to see that the GFS Ensemble can see the northern Shenandoah valley precip hole clearly from 10 days out.

The models know lol

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The models know lol

[mattie g]

10 hours ago, stormtracker said:

That beast is just killing us.  squash and suppress machine.  Luckily, prob won't turn out like this

6z GFS no squashy.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I think @Eskimo Joe - outlined a emergency management nightmare scenario a few years ago as it pertained to ice. It was a true horrific narrative if I remember...

You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

[somecallmetim]

41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

...An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

Sign me up for the Horror. I read Nuclear War: A Scenario over the holidays. This doesn't seem as bad.

[Maestrobjwa]

47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

And doth quoth the Raven: "Snow more"

[Kmlwx]

47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering  

That seems....extreme.

[Scraff]

GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. 

yeah, colder than 6z

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. 

Little snow band but h5 on another planet from 6z so pretty much who cares till we get some kind of consistenty from any of these models. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS brewing something up? Hmmmm. 

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? 

[anotherman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? 

Some Nugget Nectar.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

yeah, colder than 6z

yea thats not good. thats suppressive 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

yea thats not good. thats suppressive 

It’s waffling from run to run. I’m more interested in what’s getting tee’d up for next weekend. Looks like maybe some stj action?

[Kmlwx]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That seems....extreme.

Maybe it was Master of Disaster  

My memory isn't what it used to be in my youth

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? 

Great question! Probably some Laughing Cow cheese. 

[anotherman]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Great question! Probably some Laughing Cow cheese. 

South County!  I'm about 10 minutes away from their amazing brewery and restaurant.