January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oz Euro had an overrunning event that was a hit from PA border north next Saturday. I would expect changes there the way the models flip around. Of course, that could be gone at 12z too since the Euro isn't above mimicking the Gfs.

It’s time to retire the gfs. 
 

[TSSN+]

Its own worst enemy 

[RevWarReenactor]

Its kind of interesting how the GFS did the same exact thing with the Thursday storm. Bringing it back on day 4 only to quickly take it away. Also happened to a lesser extent with the Dec 26th storm. Plus no ensemble support. Is something wrong with this model? 

[anotherman]

Its kind of interesting how the GFS did the same exact thing with the Thursday storm. Bringing it back on day 4 only to quickly take it away. Also happened to a lesser extent with the Dec 26th storm. Plus no ensemble support. Is something wrong with this model? 

The “powers that be“ are actively trying to defund NOAA. I would think that would trickle down to a lot of services, including computer models.

[Ji]

The gfs ai went west

Also what’s the use of ensembles if they are all wrong

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs ai went west.
Also what’s the use of ensembles if they are all wrong

To give weenies false hope.

[Terpeast]

Probably best to stick with a personal rule of not getting invested until 3 days before the event - just like the old days. We've seen models, especially the GFS and its ensembles, show something good at 5 days and we think it's "in range" only to have them pull back at 4 days. 

I also think that maybe the balloon launch cancellations out west are having an effect on the models at the 4-5 day range.

[bncho]

I’m not entirely sure the GFS isn’t just windshield wipering. Will wait for 12z before final judgement

[soadforecasterx]

6z nam and rgem look decent. Still think we are in the game. 

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

6z nam and rgem look decent. Still think we are in the game. 

NAM looked juiced.

[bncho]

Back to good ol reliable RRFS

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Probably best to stick with a personal rule of not getting invested until 3 days before the event - just like the old days. We've seen models, especially the GFS and its ensembles, show something good at 5 days and we think it's "in range" only to have them pull back at 4 days. 

I don't really get emotionally invested anymore. When there is something worth tracking, we track it, but expectations should be low when only one model is depicting the desired outcome over several runs, even at 4-5 days out.

 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

Back to good ol reliable RRFS

The Spire basic is close. Anyone check the Panasonic?

[Steve25]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2011711478613897476?s=46
 

Webb not backing down on his thoughts about a north/west trend

[stormy]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't really get emotionally invested anymore. When there is something worth tracking, we track it, but expectations should be low when only one model is depicting the desired outcome over several runs, even at 4-5 days out.

 

 YES,  " expectations should be low when only one model is depicting the desired outcome over several runs"

Many are so irrationally starved for snow that they allow expectations to be hyped, then try to crucify the offending model with irrational nonsense when it shrinks away from the desired outcome.

This time, the offending model is the GFS..................  Historically, the EURO has also at times been the offender.

It's time to cool our emotions and look forward to the future.  I will probably have more to say later today.

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Spire basic is close. Anyone check the Panasonic?

Anyone got the JMA?

[anotherman]

17 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2011711478613897476?s=46
 

Webb not backing down on his thoughts about a north/west trend

That was at 3:00 AM

[87storms]

Just checked the drought monitor…central and western Md down to nc are now in a severe drought with more dought conditions all throughout the south. And checking the latest model runs, there isn’t gonna be much relief in the short-term.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I'm not totally punting this threat until 00z tonight.  We've seen things trend way north/west when we needed them not to around this range many times over the years.  There isn't a big arctic high crushing the flow south like our usual smoking cirrus NC get crushed events, so maybe we can actually get lucky. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I'm not totally punting this threat until 00z tonight.  We've seen things trend way north/west when we needed them not to around this range many times over the years.  There isn't a big arctic high crushing the flow south like our usual smoking cirrus NC get crushed events, so maybe we can actually get lucky. 

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Just checked the drought monitor…central and western Md down to nc are now in a severe drought with more dought conditions all throughout the south. And checking the latest model runs, there isn’t gonna be much relief in the short-term.

As dry as it has been here, the mountain west is in worse shape. They don't break out this year or early next, there is gonna be some SERIOUS issues with power generation and water allocation on the Colorado. 

[stormy]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Just checked the drought monitor…central and western Md down to nc are now in a severe drought with more dought conditions all throughout the south. And checking the latest model runs, there isn’t gonna be much relief in the short-term.

That will update later this morning.

[NorthArlington101]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

That was at 3:00 AM

Nothing he said changed after 3:00am. I’m as annoyed the GFS is trying to fold  as anyone, but these are still reasons to consider a general NW trend is possible. Let’s see what 12z does. Still got 3/4 days. 

[Chris78]

23 minutes ago, mappy said:

Anyone got the JMA?

The dgex model would be showing a Blizzard from Birmingham to Maine.

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

That will update later this morning.

True. Last storm helped a bit, but the general theme is the same.

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I'm not totally punting this threat until 00z tonight.  We've seen things trend way north/west when we needed them not to around this range many times over the years.  There isn't a big arctic high crushing the flow south like our usual smoking cirrus NC get crushed events, so maybe we can actually get lucky. 

It really comes down to h5 and the timing/interaction between the pieces of energy and whether it consolidates in time to take on a neutral/negative tilt.  At this point probably a light event is still on the table, but that would probably be more for coastal areas, maybe to I-95. Current guidance(excluding GFS) only has an inch or 2 for the coastal areas of NC and SE VA...that's the jackpot lol. Its weak and mostly offshore. 

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, 87storms said:

True. Last storm helped a bit, but the general theme is the same.

We suck. 
 

[stormtracker]

I think it’s a lil early to punt and give up, but I’ll be damned if this isn’t frustrating.  Really didn’t learn from last time when GFS tried to be a forerunner and lead the way.  My rule of thumb in the future of this doesn’t pan out is to not bite on the GFS at any lead time if it’s on its own.  I guess we kinda believed it because models did trend its way.  Gfs just probably over corrected.  

[WxUSAF]

6z euro continued inching westward. Maybe snow to @CAPE’s house? But we still need quite a bit more.

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I think it’s a lil early to punt and give up, but I’ll be damned if this isn’t frustrating.  Really didn’t learn from last time when GFS tried to be a forerunner and lead the way.  My rule of thumb in the future of this doesn’t pan out is to not bite on the GFS at any lead time if it’s on its own.  I guess we kinda believed it because models did trend its way.  Gfs just probably over corrected.  

Given the mess of vorticity involved, there is still some hope that this could end up being something decent. 1-3 or something.