January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[T. August]

Gfs has the NYD clipper - we are in business.

[Terpeast]

All ensembles slowly build a +PNA ridge between 240-360 hrs. AK vortex quickly fades and retros west

[H2O]

A non hostile PAC only helps the -NAO to be more effective. Not asking for a +3 SD PNA but I wonder how well we get small snows with a PNA that hovers around neutral

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, stormy said:

 To answer your question............... NO................ Snow results from precipitation when the 5000 ft. temperature is below 32 F.   

Was that a question.................................?

[frd]

 

 

 

BAM Weather

 

@bam_weather

·

1h

 

 

The type of set-up into the second week of January won't be one that favors major arctic cold, but can offer up increased winter storm potential for the East Coast. No signs of this strong -NAO set up breaking down any time soon. Top analogs into January based on the Polar Vortex and Tropical Forcing also support the idea of a favorable set-up for snow in the lower OH/TN Valley regions and the Mid-Atlantic. Eventually as convection once again traverses the equatorial Pacific Ocean, we should see the Alaskan ridge (-EPO) rebuild and allow for a more widespread/consistent shot of cold air across the US mid-late January. The EPS Weekly is already hinting at this idea. Stay up to date with our Energy Reports on the pattern ahead here: https://bamwx.com/register/energy-commercial/

 

 

 

 

[bncho]

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2005038182279381143?s=20

Great BAM video here. Here are his main points:
1. Winter storm around Jan 4-8, specifically stating "it's gonna be a big one" and it'll "probably be an ohio valley, mid atlantic coastal" storm.
2. There will be a moderation period after the big storm
3. January 15-30 will be "cold and stormy"

[frd]

Allan talks about the transition period and how the pattern may evolve going forward. There seems to be more concensus about a mid month warm-up ahead of the improving Pac. We shall see. 

Allan Huffman

 

@RaleighWx

·

1h

1) As others have posted today, this look around 1/7 could be conducive to a potential East Coast winter storm. A west-based -NAO, a deep trough axis along the East Coast. We do lack a western NA ridge to really push cold air south though. If we can get a s/w to drop into the Deep South/TN Valley far enough SW it could help pop a low near the SE/mid-Atlantic coast. Certainly no guarantee but the chance is there.

 

2) I do think in general the period between 1/5 and 1/15 or so will see a transition to the overall long wave pattern. On today's 12z EPS, notice we see a ridge over Central Asia, a trough into east Asia and a ridge builds downstream over western North America. We could even see perhaps a Kona Low go into Hawaii which would re-enforce potential blocking ridging over the NE Pacific and provide an active subtropical jet stream. I do think this goes to a solid -EPO by mid-month.

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Allan Huffman @RaleighWx

 

3) However in this transition period say day 12-17 or so, we could see milder temps for a few days across much of NA as the cross-polar flow temporarily shuts off. The west-based-NAO though may keep the Lakes/East normal or a little below normal. But our source region in Canada will warmup and will need some time to replenish the cold air via cross-polar flow.

 

4)Todays EC46 shows how this could play out and by weeks 3/4 we see a cold looking pattern with cross-polar flow, a -EPO/-AO/-NAO look and the cold air replenished in Canada. This would take us into late January. So I do think the 2nd half of January look promising for cold/snow in the East. We shall see!

 

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Great BAM video here. Here are his main points:
1. Winter storm around Jan 4-8, specifically stating "it's gonna be a big one" and it'll "probably be an ohio valley, mid atlantic coastal" storm.
2. There will be a moderation period after the big storm
3. January 15-30 will be "cold and stormy"

Seems very reasonable, but keep expections tempered for now until we get closer in.  

[Ji]

They broke the GFS something bad. Used to give us fantasy snowstorms all the time.

[stormy]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Was that a question.................................?

 For you, it is a difficult  question................  For others,  it is a simple conclusion

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

They broke the GFS something bad. Used to give us fantasy snowstorms all the time.

It was a disaster 

[winter_warlock]

From wxrisk. ... FWIW!!

 

 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

It was a disaster 

Or was it?

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Or was it?

Go with JI on this one. Lol

[Terpeast]

The 18z gfs wasn’t that bad. A “disaster” run would be a torch with 5 to 10 C 850s with a constant stream of western cutters. 

This one always had the boundary close or just south of us with some shots at us. A couple of those shots were a bit warm, but at that range, it wouldn’t take much at all. 500s look good. 

[VA Mad Man]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

if we are getting mixing with a1036 high in this position....just cancel winter now forever

Totally agree 

[BristowWx]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Go with JI on this one. Lol

Oof. Well there is always…got nothing 

[WxUSAF]

Happy hour GEFS is closer to 12z eps look around D10

[bigtenfan]

There have been countless great patterns in the long range over the last few years that looked great only to disappear as the time drew closer.

Count me in with the I will believe it when I see it crowd.

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

 For you, it is a difficult  question................  For others,  it is a simple conclusion

It wasn't a question....................................................dumbass

[bncho]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

 For you, it is a difficult  question................  For others,  it is a simple conclusion

CAPE is one of the best posters here and you disparage him over nothing. take a break lol

[CAPE]

Just now, bncho said:

CAPE is one of the best posters here and you disparage him over nothing. take a break lol

He cant help himself lol.

[Chris78]

Just now, CAPE said:

He cant help himself lol.

Weird dude 

[clskinsfan]

I dont see it unless ya'll quote it.....Just saying.

[Terpeast]

Gefs 18z a bit better than 12z, more like 06z

[CAPE]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I dont see it unless ya'll quote it.....Just saying.

Yeah that's the flaw with the ignore feature. Sorry!

[bncho]

stormy is in quite a stormy mood

[Solution Man]

51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The 18z gfs wasn’t that bad. A “disaster” run would be a torch with 5 to 10 C 850s with a constant stream of western cutters. 

This one always had the boundary close or just south of us with some shots at us. A couple of those shots were a bit warm, but at that range, it wouldn’t take much at all. 500s look good. 

Need better then