January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[moneypitmike]

What a torch period we have coming up.   Monday is forecast to be the only day with a sub-freezing high here.  And even that is just 31*.

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Just above freezing inside 128, but still a few slippery spots while walking the pup this morning.

Sheer ice here. Should have put on my skates for the driveway . 31° and according to my app not going to get above freezing until the afternoon

 

[dryslot]

1.3" overnight here.

[UnitedWx]

41 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

My parents made it all the way to 61 and 63.  Just luck of the drawn--not life style stuff.  I have several older siblings who have made it passed the 63 barrier, so I have hope.  In any case, I'm looking forward to being permanently retired--you never know how much time you'll have left.

Yikes, may you have many more years of health! I didn't see where this sub discussion started, but Tips point on sugar is spot on. Some is genetics, but a LOT is up to us. It's funny how it works sometimes. I have lots of longevity in my family and look young for my age... but both rotators repaired, a pinched nerve in my neck that'll need attention soon and likely stenosis starting in my lower back. It's always something!

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s just one ensemble member, any others honking though?

Euro isn't far behind

[UnitedWx]

Super icy secondary roads from Westfield all the way down to Simsbury this A.M. I can't even park in my normal spot at work, my truck tried to slide into the van in the next spot

[brooklynwx99]

EPS has been trending towards a more amped trough in the SE, hopefully that continues and we can get a potent low. there was def a camp of amped EPS members last night

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Sheer ice here. Should have put on my skates for the driveway . 31° and according to my app not going to get above freezing until the afternoon

 

Danger ahead.. hopefully 

[Damage In Tolland]

Had a solid icing overnight here. Still at 32

[512high]

Shop temp 28/ sleet/freezing rain has left(bulk of it)

[UnitedWx]

 If we had more than paltry precip it would have been pretty terrible here. Still 30.5 degrees

[ORH_wxman]

Pure ice on everything. All surfaces glazed. 

[dendrite]

24.9° and not doing anything at the moment

Seems like it’s been all snow so far since the top layer of snow if still fluff.

[Chrisrotary12]

16 minutes ago, 512high said:

Shop temp 28/ sleet/freezing rain has left(bulk of it)

Only walked my driveway but looked like we were a mix of sleet and ice. Wasn’t a pure glaze, kind of rough?

[KTBFFH1905]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Pete ftw.

This would be the biggest storm for us in a while. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

What a torch period we have coming up.   Monday is forecast to be the only day with a sub-freezing high here.  And even that is just 31*.

...well they other day someone was touting "revisions" were going to need to be made to the  upcoming AN temp period forecast...  

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

What a torch period we have coming up.   Monday is forecast to be the only day with a sub-freezing high here.  And even that is just 31*.

Yeah. Nice January thaw coming up. 

Lol on Goff Law sponsoring NBC's weather graphic with an embedded ad.  

[tavwtby]

2 hour delay here in Winsted, had to drive my kid into school in Torrington, damn near fell down the deck stairs but roads are fine, sitting at 30.1 with drizzle zr

[512high]

15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Only walked my driveway but looked like we were a mix of sleet and ice. Wasn’t a pure glaze, kind of rough?

Chris, you are correct, ice is burning through this, temps at my shop 30F now, ground temp, different story, usual side streets, walks stairs etc, slick, city out, bus routes etc.

Lol need snow event! Going through salt over the last week! 

[Damage In Tolland]

ZR falling again 

[ineedsnow]

Light zr 29.8..  car is iced over 

[jbenedet]

Temperatures conducive but no precip. NWS forecast 0.1 -0.2” ice. Ain’t happening.

0.03” at  PSM. DAW seems to be having issues but they must have also registered 0.03” or less through the morning….

[moneypitmike]

Snow/IP at the moment   First time I've heard IP hitting the windows this morning, probably all snow before.  Looks like we'll just be having some of this for a while unless it warms quite a bit.  I'll measure in a bit when I clear off my car.

23.7*

[jbenedet]

Worst icing of this event are points south in SNE/CNE. Even the batch in western MA will miss my area to the south, later today.

[jbenedet]

Dover with 0.01” since midnight. And nothing upstream incoming…
 

Bust.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS has been trending towards a more amped trough in the SE, hopefully that continues and we can get a potent low. there was def a camp of amped EPS members last night

EPS member mean has a Miller B behavior, albeit centered around 1000 mb give or take .. but the pressure pattern evolution is unmistakable

from 200+ hours of way this is a fine signal. 

The 06z GFS as others have already pointed out was a canonical looking system.   It's Miller A.    The earlier 00z was amplified at the L/W scales, consistent with the erstwhile +PNA outlook/timing, but devoid of S/W mechanics capable of doing much of anything.  The GEFs have a low passing through but it's unimpressive; again, not too concerned with that at 200 hours - plenty of time there.

The 00z Canadian and any Canadian run for that matter going back several cycles have yet to do so either.  The GEPs mean was a subtle improvement over the 12z run. 

These are all like 'taking a stab' at what 14-15-16 will be.  Best not to commit to any one of these signal variances.  The take away is that the signal is still there.  

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

EPS member mean has a Miller B behavior, albeit centered around 1000 mb give or take .. but the pressure pattern evolution is unmistakable

from 200+ hours of way this is a fine signal. 

The 06z GFS as others have already pointed out was a canonical looking system.   It's Miller A.    The earlier 00z was amplified at the L/W scales, consistent with the erstwhile +PNA outlook/timing, but devoid of S/W mechanics capable of doing much of anything.  The GEFs have a low passing through but it's unimpressive; again, not too concerned with that at 200 hours - plenty of time there.

The 00z Canadian and any Canadian run for that matter going back several cycles have yet to do so either.  The GEPs mean was a subtle improvement over the 12z run. 

These are all like 'taking a stab' at what 14-15-16 will be.  Best not to commit to any one of these signal variances.  The take away is that the signal is still there.  

 

 

1000mb mean pressure at this range is actually pretty significant.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Worst icing of this event are points south in SNE/CNE. Even the batch in western MA will miss my area to the south, later today.

It was pretty icy in my area...28 and raining moderately when I left. 2 hour delay for school. My side street was slippery, but main roads fine. Snow is now encased.

29.8 now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, 512high said:

Chris, you are correct, ice is burning through this, temps at my shop 30F now, ground temp, different story, usual side streets, walks stairs etc, slick, city out, bus routes etc.

Lol need snow event! Going through salt over the last week! 

I have noticed ice on certain surfaces even just above freezing at certain points this season given all of the cold that has been around....

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...well they other day someone was touting "revisions" were going to need to be made to the  upcoming AN temp period forecast...  

Precisely as planned AFAIC....only wrinkle so far has been the huge -WPO ridge making December even colder than thought.