January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[HIPPYVALLEY]

You can see on the Euro the high moves E enough to relax the confluence and let the entire system come further north. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I really like the H5 vorticity color schema on weathermodels over weatherbell, its much easier on the eyes. Is there any benefits or extra stuff you like on weathermodels vs weatherbell?

I’ve never purchased wxbell, but the big downside to weathermodels is it’s slower and I can’t zoom closely on ensembles. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You can see on the Euro the high moves E enough to relax the confluence and let the entire system come further north. 

I’d sign right now and lock this for all of New England. There’s a limit to far this can go, but much like the south a few hours ago and the Mid-Atlantic right now, I don’t want to be sitting here tomorrow at this time wondering how in the hell a historic Arctic outbreak leads to a coastal blasting the mix line 200 miles to my north.

Not saying that’ll happen, but be careful of wanting others to sniff your backside…  

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And with some mid level magic, northern areas get smoked too.

I would be happy with 3”-6”. We’ve been getting .5 every three day or so and it would be great to actually have to clear some snow. 

[RDRY]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d sign right now and lock this for all of New England. There’s a limit to far this can go, but much like the south a few hours ago and the Mid-Atlantic right now, I don’t want to be sitting here tomorrow at this time wondering how in the hell a historic Arctic outbreak leads to a coastal blasting the mix line 200 miles to my north.

Not saying that’ll happen, but be careful of wanting others to sniff your backside…  

Not with this one.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Not with this one.

Southerners and Mid-Atlantic said that too.

I’m not saying we’re getting screwed or anything…I think we’ll be just fine…but I think tonight shows that we’re not locked into anything yet when the trend is this aggressive. I do think it’ll settle eventually. 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a great event 

It is?  00z ECMWF gives 14" 10:1 to DC, while much of SNE only 5-10"?  Not good enough for many!

The dreaded 700 dry slot makes it presence know and fragments the event.  Not what CoastalWx wants to see!

And the UKMET supports the ECMWF.

The ECMWF has a solid 1040 mb high over BTV at 102 hr, and it still "loses," so to speak.  You now have a very strong 500 system, actually cut off over the Upper MS Valley, and swings from positive to negative tilt quickly, but while moving E over srn Ontario and Quebec.  This is not good overall for a focused and intense coastal low.

So usually the coastal low takes over once forms, but not in this case.  It's becomes one of those wishy-washy things when it can't decide which sfc low (primary or secondary) takes over, so you get something less than stellar.  Not a smooth event for sure, and inconsistent S+ areas.

This is one of oddest evolutions of a East Coast storm I have ever seen, and we went from a suppressed non-event to this?  What else is going to change since we are still just over 3 days from the event starting in New England?

 

[wxsniss]

0z EPS jumped ~150 north compared to 12z EPS

mean QPF now 0.7-1" all of SNE

[Ginx snewx]

Historical these people are not prepared for what is about to hit them 

[ORH_wxman]

Here’s EPS….doesnt really capture all of it though since it’s longer than 24h

 

[ineedsnow]

Great trends last night 

[mahk_webstah]

When I woke up to pee and saw all the pages I knew.
WPC is a little skeptical though

Mirage?

So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or
revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly
unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model
runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift
has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown
pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern
and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these
features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream
energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada
into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend
could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a
solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it
should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a
widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting
significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These
details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow
and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were
derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is
a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee
we dont see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some
persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would
likely shift north to at least some extent.
 

[Modfan2]

Down to -3 in E CT, hard to believe it will be in the 30’s today.

[Damage In Tolland]

1-3 tonight .

Feet Sunday/ Monday/ Tuesday 

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3 tonight .

Feet Sunday/ Monday/ Tuesday 

6z ICON was looking good

[moneypitmike]

I can't believe Mattapoisett will be getting double digits and I'll have nothing here in Maine.  

 

We're doing okay overall up here, but it will be painful sitting this one out.  Congrats you southerners.

[ineedsnow]

6z AI GFS came north a bit

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS won't disappoint 

[moneypitmike]

So sad.  lol

 

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

So sad.  lol

 

I don’t think that is updated yet

[ineedsnow]

A little less amped but gets more qpf.. seems the GFS is struggling a bit 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

I don’t think that is updated yet

It still ain't gonna happen.   The high is too strong and won't retreat for up here.  We snooze.

[CoastalWx]

I’d like to crank that coastal just a bit more to have a higher ceiling. Otherwise not sure I see the PDII analog at the moment. Think ceiling is like 12-18. Which obviously the region would take. 

[moneypitmike]

Looks a little niipply a week from today.   Goodness

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to crank that coastal just a bit more to have a higher ceiling. Otherwise not sure I see the PDII analog at the moment. Think ceiling is like 12-18. Which obviously the region southern new england would take. 

 

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to crank that coastal just a bit more to have a higher ceiling. Otherwise not sure I see the PDII analog at the moment. Think ceiling is like 12-18. Which obviously the region would take. 

Close to a mini nuke on the GFS next Thrusday and Friday 

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Great trends last night 

Nice to wake up to this... and not nightmares of Torchy narrating Massengil commercials 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Close to a mini nuke on the GFS next Thrusday and Friday 

A James winter for the ages.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1.0

[Roger Smith]

Willing to bet this bombs out near Long Island and buries the region in feet of snow. Model trend is baby steps towards that end result. If this drops to 980 instead of 998, look out.