January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[HIPPYVALLEY]

You can see on the Euro the high moves E enough to relax the confluence and let the entire system come further north. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I really like the H5 vorticity color schema on weathermodels over weatherbell, its much easier on the eyes. Is there any benefits or extra stuff you like on weathermodels vs weatherbell?

I’ve never purchased wxbell, but the big downside to weathermodels is it’s slower and I can’t zoom closely on ensembles. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You can see on the Euro the high moves E enough to relax the confluence and let the entire system come further north. 

I’d sign right now and lock this for all of New England. There’s a limit to far this can go, but much like the south a few hours ago and the Mid-Atlantic right now, I don’t want to be sitting here tomorrow at this time wondering how in the hell a historic Arctic outbreak leads to a coastal blasting the mix line 200 miles to my north.

Not saying that’ll happen, but be careful of wanting others to sniff your backside…  

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And with some mid level magic, northern areas get smoked too.

I would be happy with 3”-6”. We’ve been getting .5 every three day or so and it would be great to actually have to clear some snow. 

[RDRY]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d sign right now and lock this for all of New England. There’s a limit to far this can go, but much like the south a few hours ago and the Mid-Atlantic right now, I don’t want to be sitting here tomorrow at this time wondering how in the hell a historic Arctic outbreak leads to a coastal blasting the mix line 200 miles to my north.

Not saying that’ll happen, but be careful of wanting others to sniff your backside…  

Not with this one.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Not with this one.

Southerners and Mid-Atlantic said that too.

I’m not saying we’re getting screwed or anything…I think we’ll be just fine…but I think tonight shows that we’re not locked into anything yet when the trend is this aggressive. I do think it’ll settle eventually. 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a great event 

It is?  00z ECMWF gives 14" 10:1 to DC, while much of SNE only 5-10"?  Not good enough for many!

The dreaded 700 dry slot makes it presence know and fragments the event.  Not what CoastalWx wants to see!

And the UKMET supports the ECMWF.

The ECMWF has a solid 1040 mb high over BTV at 102 hr, and it still "loses," so to speak.  You now have a very strong 500 system, actually cut off over the Upper MS Valley, and swings from positive to negative tilt quickly, but while moving E over srn Ontario and Quebec.  This is not good overall for a focused and intense coastal low.

So usually the coastal low takes over once forms, but not in this case.  It's becomes one of those wishy-washy things when it can't decide which sfc low (primary or secondary) takes over, so you get something less than stellar.  Not a smooth event for sure, and inconsistent S+ areas.

This is one of oddest evolutions of a East Coast storm I have ever seen, and we went from a suppressed non-event to this?  What else is going to change since we are still just over 3 days from the event starting in New England?

 

[wxsniss]

0z EPS jumped ~150 north compared to 12z EPS

mean QPF now 0.7-1" all of SNE

[Ginx snewx]

Historical these people are not prepared for what is about to hit them 

[ORH_wxman]

Here’s EPS….doesnt really capture all of it though since it’s longer than 24h