January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get it...I'd be stoked in VA.

Yea that’s where I’m at. 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The surface high is intensifying over our heads on guidance. 
 

I’d call it Canadian but it’s over our head throughout. Filling in for Quebec..

Great news for our southern neighbors who love snow

Gefs keeps trending north. Not the best model to use.

[Bryan63]

Between chances here, and how things are shaping up in the Midwest, my work trip I really don't want to go on Monday morning is looking increasingly unlikely. Lets get this thing across the finish line.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs keeps trending north. Not the best model to use.

No problem for you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Bryan63 said:

Between chances here, and how things are shaping up in the Midwest, my work trip I really don't want to go on Monday morning is looking increasingly unlikely. Lets get this thing across the finish line.

I would love to turn this into a Monday deal...hold that shit back and then phase it in to gobble up a shitty Monday. SNE had a history with nice storm's on Monday ; )

[Kitz Craver]

This will creep into SNE, just my opinion. The confluence has been weakening on approach the last couple runs, let’s hope that continues. Also, I like the more two part depiction where where the energy tries to phase after overrunning into more of a coastal 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs keeps trending north. Not the best model to use.

Bernie Rayno is favoring more of a northern track. He said in his video he’s not really buying what the gfs suite is selling. 

[George001]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

This will creep into SNE, just my opinion. The confluence has been weakening on approach the last couple runs, let’s hope that continues. Also, I like the more two part depiction where where the energy tries to phase after overrunning into more of a coastal 

I agree, something big is going to happen. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The gradient on the 00z Euro reminds of of January 96...not as sharp, but location of it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Massive icestorm down south. Some of those areas will be crushed and no power for weeks . And it’s cold after the storm too 

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Massive icestorm down south. Some of those areas will be crushed and no power for weeks . And it’s cold after the storm too 

That would be kind of rough for them, 0.0 infrastructure for big ice

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

That would be kind of rough for them, 0.0 infrastructure for big ice

Ground zero at this juncture looks like TN down into NW Bama 

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No problem for you.

As it stands, where do you see the line for the haves and have nots setting up?

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No problem for you.

Im on the northern fringes right now 

[mreaves]

8 hours ago, Fozz said:

I see it now… it’s not that it shifted north, I think there’s a sneaky second wave that the last run didn’t have.

Well, it's obviously incorrect.  The bullseye for VT is right over my head.  We know that never happens.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im on the northern fringes right now 

We have a lot more wiggle room than anyone north of CT. 

[Spanks45]

53 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for Southern New England today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the obs thread for it. 

24.0" for the season......Worked so hard to get there, hopefully we don't get shutout up here over the next week while someone down south surpasses my season total with one storm, lol

[WeatherGeek2025]

21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s where I’m at. 

another push up north you'll get sleety

[Cyclone-68]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would love to turn this into a Monday deal...hold that shit back and then phase it in to gobble up a shitty Monday. SNE had a history with nice storm's on Monday ; )

That and the post coital rapture of a Sunday Patriots win. 

[jbenedet]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs keeps trending north. Not the best model to use.

Hmmm…

[EastonSN+]

Fwiw TWC stated that Boston COULD get a heavy snow out of this. 

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty much all guidance has been trending north. The question is whether that trend stops or reverses or we see it keep going. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Mixed ideas on that.. 

That has the look of a classic/climo southern ice/mix storm.  As a matter of climate course those more often stay safely S of the ~ Mason Dixie latitude. 

It depends how much is conserved of the jet mechanics as that quasi S/stream wave squeezes E under the continental N/stream.  If there's more there, than there's more feedback that subtly but crucially elevates heights over the west Atlantic via feed backs, while it also generates more coherent low pressure/mechanics.  That appears to be the pathway to getting clipped this far N.   Less, and this stays a southern classic.  Either way ...they're likely getting their winter storm.

[weatherwiz]

This is definitely concerning in terms of a widespread ice storm within the mid-South, however, with that the north trends that have been ongoing are very noteworthy and should not be dismissed. I would not be surprised if the sfc low actually developed a bit faster and farther west than what the GFS had (6z run). It might be difficult for interior but coastal New England could be in play for some significant snows 

[8611Blizz]

Im looking forward to this New York post headline on Tuesday.  NYPD officer found nude in Central Park doing snow angels 

[Zeus]

Good morning, you princes of complain, you dingalings of New England.

I wish you good luck; I like this one.

[Mothman]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The gradient on the 00z Euro reminds of of January 96...not as sharp, but location of it.

Do you mean in terms of big snow -> big rain -> flooding ?

Dusted off the account to see what you folks are saying about this big storm. Could be a fun one. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

As it stands, where do you see the line for the haves and have nots setting up?

Quantify "have"....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Mothman said:

Do you mean in terms of big snow -> big rain -> flooding ?

Dusted off the account to see what you folks are saying about this big storm. Could be a fun one. 

No, the northern edge of the heavy snow.

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, I have never seen DT so amped up...telling people prepare to have the kids out of school all week...looking at snow maps and saying "OMG, I hope that doesn't verify"....I'm thinking "you're so full of shit"

Kiss of death. Its coming north.