CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Definitely worried about suppression but it’s not impossible to get something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Also verification scores still have AIFS ENS as number one performing 500mb verification last 90 days so we do have to give them some weight. Caveat is I don't know the source of this data.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I believe it’s coming . At least for CNE and SNE. As Will said yesterday, gulf systems typically come north since loaded with moisture 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Regular op runs in their typical too much confluence bias range now. Will take 2-3 days until they make the moves north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning Not all Ukie ? Cmc? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning I don’t know what this is worth but the iPhone weather app is calling for 16-20” on Sunday. I’m not sure which model this is coming from (ETA apparently the UKMET shows a big hit) but I can easily see a scenario where this happens. A massive overrunning event from the south running into a bitterly cold air mass can get it done. And can come north. This looks a lot like PDII, and while it initially wasn’t supposed to hit NYC let alone SNE, it eventually dropped 27” in Boston (and a similar total in Baltimore where I lived - and I was an impressionable preteen boy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I hope we all just take a moment to appreciate that winter is here. Ice on the river. Snow on the ground. Arctic cold on the way. Ok, now that that’s over, let’s bring this next one home. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago We are going to have Phase 8 MJO Slightly negative NAO Deeply negative AO Positive PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not all Ukie ? Cmc? The Canadian Parallel is a KU for New England the weekend, I've been looking at it, no idea how it scores, it was one of the first models to catch on to yesterday's potential, that's about all I know about it.. It's experimental, but I read it's taking over for the CMC this year .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning They will in a few days. This is an event that is tailor made for AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Who ? Thats what the models show. Apparently, there are some mets here who are having trouble letting go of the buggy whip models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago the differences are really easy to detect in the mid range. the AI versions have less cold exertion (less deep layer total mechanics therein), such that a vague S/stream wash runs up farther N as a wave/series/overrunning around the 25th. the standard versions preclude that from taking place because as they depict, an overbearing polar-arctic branch jams a confluence to an usually deep latitude across the conus ... utterly suppressive. Which is right? the AIs would get cold but seasonally so, then a durational ( which is hard to do in a fast footprint but given the flow orientation, about the only way to do it is this shallow azimuth rise coming E) multi regional winter event. the standard versions would plummet the NP/Lakes, with an somewhat attenuated eventual arrival here, but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning Even non AI guidance has moved north. It’s still a whiff, but I like where we sit for this one. Btw how much snow did you end up getting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning What, kind of like this one that you just got 8” in? That one didn’t have any OP support until Saturday at 00z…yet you told us how it was never gonna happen…but you just got 8”. How quickly one forgets. Chill bro..this has close to a whole week to go…gonna be alot of ups and downs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Im convinced the AIs are going to lead the way on this. ride them in the mid range for storm track, 500 trough positions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I’ll be traveling so it’s why I’m asking…if this does come north for SNE, are we looking more of a Sunday noon or after deal for us? I know we’re talking 6 days out here, and maybe it never even gets up in here…but if it did, what’s the timing looking like at this moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Im convinced the AIs are going to lead the way on this. ride them in the mid range for storm track, 500 trough positions Certainly have to give them some weight now after what just happened over the weekend…no denying that. Will they be correct again is the question. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago I mean, looking at the 6z Euro, 6 days out sure looks ok to me...living in the Mid Atlantic for most of my life, I recall quite a few of these systems and their abilities to end up further north than forecasted 5 days out. Always seemed like the sleet line would make its way further north than foecasted, even within 24 hrs. The fact that the OPs are starting to bounce around, the closer we get definitely shows there is some wiggle room. Lets get some ridging in the SE.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: I mean, looking at the 6z Euro, 6 days out sure looks ok to me...living in the Mid Atlantic for most of my life, I recall quite a few of these systems and their abilities to end up further north than forecasted 5 days out. Always seemed like the sleet line would make its way further north than foecasted, even within 24 hrs. The fact that the OPs are starting to bounce around, the closer we get definitely shows there is some wiggle room. Lets get some ridging in the SE.... Bingo. Nothing is ever a given…but this isn’t even close to a slam dunk done deal miss for SNE, especially at more than 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Ai Euro and AI GFS continue to show a huge snowstorm . Gefs is lighting up like a Christmas tree What do you mean by lighting up like a Christmas tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-16-17-2003 Resemblance is wild.. need to trend this 250 miles north in 5.5 days.. @ORH_wxman whats your recollection on PD2 and the last 48 hours trend north? I was in Philly for that storm and it was tremendous. A lot of small flakes and Arctic sand though but still 18 inches with a lot of sleet at the end on top of that. But I think there was some hugely anomalously jet that was like five standard deviations above normal or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago If this new storm next weekend evolves, does that mean the deep south will see a severe weather outbreak as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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