January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

Definitely worried about suppression but it’s not impossible to get something. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Also verification scores still have AIFS ENS as number one performing 500mb verification last 90 days so we do have to give them some weight.  Caveat is I don't know the source of this data.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I believe it’s coming . At least for CNE and SNE. As Will said yesterday, gulf systems typically come north since loaded with moisture 

[Damage In Tolland]

Regular op runs in their typical too much confluence bias range now. Will take 2-3 days until they make the moves north 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning 

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning 

Not all

Ukie ?

Cmc?

[Fozz]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning 

I don’t know what this is worth but the iPhone weather app is calling for 16-20” on Sunday. I’m not sure which model this is coming from (ETA apparently the UKMET shows a big hit) but I can easily see a scenario where this happens.

A massive overrunning event from the south running into a bitterly cold air mass can get it done. And can come north. This looks a lot like PDII, and while it initially wasn’t supposed to hit NYC let alone SNE, it eventually dropped 27” in Boston (and a similar total in Baltimore where I lived - and I was an impressionable preteen boy).

[WxWatcher007]

I hope we all just take a moment to appreciate that winter is here. Ice on the river. Snow on the ground. Arctic cold on the way. 

 

Ok, now that that’s over, let’s bring this next one home. 

[MJO812]

We are going to have

Phase 8 MJO
Slightly negative NAO
Deeply negative AO
Positive PNA

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not all

Ukie ?

Cmc?

The Canadian Parallel is a KU for New England the weekend, I've been looking at it, no idea how it scores, it was one of the first models to catch on to yesterday's potential, that's about all I know about it.. It's experimental, but I read it's taking over for the CMC this year ..

[Go Kart Mozart]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning 

They will in a few days.  This is an event that is tailor made for AI.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Who ? Thats what the models show.

Apparently, there are some mets here who are having trouble letting go of the buggy whip models.

[Typhoon Tip]

the differences are really easy to detect in the mid range. 

the AI versions have less cold exertion (less deep layer total mechanics therein), such that a vague S/stream wash runs up farther N as a wave/series/overrunning around the 25th. 

the standard versions preclude that from taking place because as they depict, an overbearing polar-arctic branch jams a confluence to an usually deep latitude across the conus ... utterly suppressive. 

Which is right? 

the AIs would get cold but seasonally so, then a durational ( which is hard to do in a fast footprint but given the flow orientation, about the only way to do it is this shallow azimuth rise coming E) multi regional winter event. 

the standard versions would plummet the NP/Lakes, with an somewhat attenuated eventual arrival here, but dry.  

[George001]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning 

Even non AI guidance has moved north. It’s still a whiff, but I like where we sit for this one. Btw how much snow did you end up getting? 

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning 

What, kind of like this one that you just got 8” in? That one didn’t have any OP support until Saturday at 00z…yet you told us how it was never gonna happen…but you just got 8”.  How quickly one forgets.
 

Chill bro..this has close to a whole week to go…gonna be alot of ups and downs. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Im convinced the AIs are going to lead the way on this. ride them in the mid range for storm track, 500 trough positions

[WinterWolf]

I’ll be traveling so it’s why I’m asking…if this does come north for SNE, are we looking more of a Sunday noon or after deal for us? I know we’re talking 6 days out here, and maybe it never even gets up in here…but if it did, what’s the timing looking like at this moment? 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Im convinced the AIs are going to lead the way on this. ride them in the mid range for storm track, 500 trough positions

Certainly have to give them some weight now after what just happened over the weekend…no denying that.  Will they be correct again is the question. Interesting. 

[Spanks45]

I mean, looking at the 6z Euro, 6 days out sure looks ok to me...living in the Mid Atlantic for most of my life, I recall quite a few of these systems and their abilities to end up further north than forecasted 5 days out.  Always seemed like the sleet line would make its way further north than foecasted, even within 24 hrs. The fact that the OPs are starting to bounce around, the closer we get definitely shows there is some wiggle room. Lets get some ridging in the SE....

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

I mean, looking at the 6z Euro, 6 days out sure looks ok to me...living in the Mid Atlantic for most of my life, I recall quite a few of these systems and their abilities to end up further north than forecasted 5 days out.  Always seemed like the sleet line would make its way further north than foecasted, even within 24 hrs. The fact that the OPs are starting to bounce around, the closer we get definitely shows there is some wiggle room. Lets get some ridging in the SE....

Bingo. Nothing is ever a given…but this isn’t  even close to a slam dunk done deal miss for SNE, especially at more than 5 days away. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Ai Euro and AI GFS continue to show a huge snowstorm . Gefs is lighting up like a Christmas tree 

What do you mean by lighting up like a Christmas tree?

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-16-17-2003

Resemblance is wild.. need to trend this 250 miles north in 5.5 days.. @ORH_wxman whats your recollection on PD2 and the last 48 hours trend north?

I was in Philly for that storm and it was tremendous. A lot of small flakes and Arctic sand though but still 18 inches with a lot of sleet at the end on top of that. But I think there was some hugely anomalously jet that was like five standard deviations above normal or something.

[Cyclone-68]

If this new storm next weekend evolves, does that mean the deep south will see a severe weather outbreak as well?