January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

Boy the AIFS is one way to get a couple good storms. I still worry about cold and dry. Just noting it I’m not forecasting it but it’s a concern of mine.

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy the AIFS is one way to get a couple good storms. I still worry about cold and dry. Just noting it I’m not forecasting it but it’s a concern of mine.

I would be ok if we go 1 for 3......I know we have been snowier out here. Just one huge storm, region wide with cold air before and after. I will definitely not complain if we go 3 for 3, but something good for all

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I would be ok if we go 1 for 3......I know we have been snowier out here. Just one huge storm, region wide with cold air before and after. I will definitely not complain if we go 3 for 3, but something good for all

My bar is low. 4” lol. Anyways that was an interesting run.

[ORH_wxman]

Always watch massive gulf-infused overrunning setups. They love to come north. So seeing them down south right now at this juncture isn’t the worst thing. 
 

There’s clearly a lot of spread anyway…EPS has QPF well into New England on these 24h panels. 
 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Always watch massive gulf-infused overrunning setups. They love to come north. So seeing them down south right now at this juncture isn’t the worst thing. 
 

There’s clearly a lot of spread anyway…EPS has QPF well into New England on these 24h panels. 
 

Ya, just get some precip into the cold dome, won't even need that much qpf..

Then Take a look at 500 on the 29th threat.. Big Dog pattern.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Both AI models are a carbon copy for next weekend PD3 type of setup

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Both AI models are a carbon copy for next weekend PD3 type of setup

AIs are liking the overrunning system while OPs suppressing it. Let’s see how consistent AI is in the coming few days vs the OPs. Wonder if we see another bias-correction win for the AIs….I had mentioned just a couple posts up how you often see those types of systems come north. I wonder if the AI models already know that from past data and are correcting for it. It will be interesting to track either way. 
 

[WinterWolf]

That over-running set up looks to be what day(if it happens), Sunday night into Monday(25th-26th)?  

[moneypitmike]

A benchmark rainer on February 1?

[WinterWolf]

Tip beat you to it.  330 hours/14 days out….lol.  Gone next run. And that looks like it is well inside the benchmark. 

[SnoSki14]

Huge if the AI models are anywhere close to being right next weekend 

[BombsAway1288]

47 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

A benchmark rainer on February 1?

We’ve seen it before. In fact, we saw it last year. This time though there will be a lot more cold air around to work with 

[VivaManchVegas]

55 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

A benchmark rainer on February 1?

Thats something you would see in May. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

A benchmark rainer on February 1?

You seriously posting this crap? You know better than most of us that this far out the scenario is not going to play out like this. I think you're just fishing to see what people say. 

[butterfish55]

You seriously posting this crap? You know better than most of us that this far out the scenario is not going to play out like this. I think you're just fishing to see what people say. 

he got you to bite, so....good job

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya, just get some precip into the cold dome, won't even need that much qpf..

Then Take a look at 500 on the 29th threat.. Big Dog pattern.

this can def work. legit overrunning chance, anyone from DC to BOS should be watching 

[moneypitmike]

41 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You seriously posting this crap? You know better than most of us that this far out the scenario is not going to play out like this. I think you're just fishing to see what people say. 

I wasn't posting that I thought it would happen......I was posting that it was even a possible depiction.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

If we can lock in the 18z AIGFS no one would complain the rest of the season 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If we can lock in the 18z AIGFS no one would complain the rest of the season 

you'd think so..but probably not 

That 1/29-30 would be an all-timer though

[Fozz]

The AI GFS is an insane run but I’m starting to think it overamps too many storms.

[Fozz]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this can def work. legit overrunning chance, anyone from DC to BOS should be watching 

We need that SE ridge to flex hard, because it’s up against a very potent polar vortex that reminds me of March 2014 (when every system trended south and crushed DC, while 40N and up were high and dry and very cold).

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The AI GFS is an insane run but I’m starting to think it overamps too many storms.

this might do it for you then

[WinterWolf]

52 minutes ago, Fozz said:

We need that SE ridge to flex hard, because it’s up against a very potent polar vortex that reminds me of March 2024 (when every system trended south and crushed DC, while 40N and up were high and dry and very cold).

March of  2024? That winter sucked bad…I don’t  remember any cold and suppression?  

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Match 2024? That winter sucked bad…I don’t  remember any cold and suppression?  

My mistake… I meant March 2014.

I must be getting old if I’m mixing up decades.

[VivaManchVegas]

Unreal that the patriots are back in it. I am 55 and have witnessed 20 years of suck and 20 years of greatness...  So glad we don't have another 20 years of suck.