January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

Boy the AIFS is one way to get a couple good storms. I still worry about cold and dry. Just noting it I’m not forecasting it but it’s a concern of mine.

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy the AIFS is one way to get a couple good storms. I still worry about cold and dry. Just noting it I’m not forecasting it but it’s a concern of mine.

I would be ok if we go 1 for 3......I know we have been snowier out here. Just one huge storm, region wide with cold air before and after. I will definitely not complain if we go 3 for 3, but something good for all

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I would be ok if we go 1 for 3......I know we have been snowier out here. Just one huge storm, region wide with cold air before and after. I will definitely not complain if we go 3 for 3, but something good for all

My bar is low. 4” lol. Anyways that was an interesting run.

[ORH_wxman]

Always watch massive gulf-infused overrunning setups. They love to come north. So seeing them down south right now at this juncture isn’t the worst thing. 
 

There’s clearly a lot of spread anyway…EPS has QPF well into New England on these 24h panels. 
 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Always watch massive gulf-infused overrunning setups. They love to come north. So seeing them down south right now at this juncture isn’t the worst thing. 
 

There’s clearly a lot of spread anyway…EPS has QPF well into New England on these 24h panels. 
 

Ya, just get some precip into the cold dome, won't even need that much qpf..

Then Take a look at 500 on the 29th threat.. Big Dog pattern.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Both AI models are a carbon copy for next weekend PD3 type of setup

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Both AI models are a carbon copy for next weekend PD3 type of setup

AIs are liking the overrunning system while OPs suppressing it. Let’s see how consistent AI is in the coming few days vs the OPs. Wonder if we see another bias-correction win for the AIs….I had mentioned just a couple posts up how you often see those types of systems come north. I wonder if the AI models already know that from past data and are correcting for it. It will be interesting to track either way. 
 

[WinterWolf]

That over-running set up looks to be what day(if it happens), Sunday night into Monday(25th-26th)?  

[moneypitmike]

A benchmark rainer on February 1?

[WinterWolf]

Tip beat you to it.  330 hours/14 days out….lol.  Gone next run. And that looks like it is well inside the benchmark. 

[SnoSki14]

Huge if the AI models are anywhere close to being right next weekend