January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It should make everyone feel warm and fuzzy that the one model getting an appreciable storm here on Sunday is the same model that tried to bury us for Friday only to go a thousand miles out to see in 24 hours time.

Its such a low probability, but if it did come back to maybe graze us, its very likely to be and east and more so NE type of deal. I don’t think thats unreasonable 

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, alex said:

I’d go back to December in a heartbeat lol. This pattern sucks 

Not a pattern though just a thaw week.  It's over enjoy the snow tonight tomorrow 

[ineedsnow]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I still have a couple of inches (of glacier) over almost all of my property.  But that will be largely gone by tomorrow night.  It has made the dog walking much easier

Same here.. some yards still have 1 to 4 or so others are bare

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I couldn’t  care less. It’s just not likely to get into the 50’s today in hills . It’s not like anyone is outside doing anything on a work day . It’s just the logistics 

Work what's that.  My walker and I are becoming fast friends. New knee yesterday  

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Op/details/6z gfs aside…

That was kind of a fun run to loop through seeing those massive, sprawling 1040+ highs sandwiched around shortwaves trying to barge through the cold. @WxWatcher007 would get his -35° at SLK under one of those highs. 

Cold of yore overunning of yore.  Buckle up broncos

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It should make everyone feel warm and fuzzy that the one model getting an appreciable storm here on Sunday is the same model that tried to bury us for Friday only to go a thousand miles out to see in 24 hours time.

Its such a low probability, but if it did come back to maybe graze us, its very likely to be and east and more so NE type of deal. I don’t think thats unreasonable 

Let’s get Charleston, SC the jack from this

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Same here.. some yards still have 1 to 4 or so others are bare

There is one house in particular in my neighborhood that I love due to a big wall of towering pines that are on its south side.  It retains snow like a muthafuka.  Mine doesn't have alot of pines on that side, but a decent amount of other trees

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cold of yore overunning of yore.  Buckle up broncos

Yeah let’s get those airmasses inside d7 without a moderating trend. But yeah, looks cold overall and potentially active either way. Although the 6z goofus had some creative ways to screw AEMATT despite cold and high QPF. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah let’s get those airmasses inside d7 without a moderating trend. But yeah, looks cold overall and potentially active either way. Although the 6z goofus had some creative ways to screw AEMATT despite cold and high QPF. 

Deeper phasing out west on those solutions. Apparently phasing in the fast flow paradigm is only a problem for the east coast and not out west when we don’t want it. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It should make everyone feel warm and fuzzy that the one model getting an appreciable storm here on Sunday is the same model that tried to bury us for Friday only to go a thousand miles out to see in 24 hours time.

Its such a low probability, but if it did come back to maybe graze us, its very likely to be and east and more so NE type of deal. I don’t think thats unreasonable 

Actually several models and ensembles like your area .. We will see if it holds at 12z

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Op/details/6z gfs aside…

That was kind of a fun run to loop through seeing those massive, sprawling 1040+ highs sandwiched around shortwaves trying to barge through the cold. @WxWatcher007 would get his -35° at SLK under one of those highs. 

Just saw the fantasy 2m temps. She tryin. 

[wx2fish]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Op/details/6z gfs aside…

That was kind of a fun run to loop through seeing those massive, sprawling 1040+ highs sandwiched around shortwaves trying to barge through the cold. @WxWatcher007 would get his -35° at SLK under one of those highs. 

That system at the end of the euro op dropping snow below 0F is entertaining

[metagraphica]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Just saw the fantasy 2m temps. She tryin. 

No thanks. What f*ck good is that shit if it's not gonna snow.

[moneypitmike]

It appears these will impact eastern areas of SNE rather than up this way, no?

I'll be in MA most weekends and Maine through the week.  Hopefuly I can score snows a t both locations.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, metagraphica said:

No thanks. What f*ck good is that shit if it's not gonna snow.

might kill some ticks..other than that I can't think of anything 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

might kill some ticks..other than that I can't think of anything 

 

Nah--the ticks will survive.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

No thanks. What f*ck good is that shit if it's not gonna snow.

We’re trying to get @radarmanpond hockey tournaments into May

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

No thanks. What f*ck good is that shit if it's not gonna snow.

Its coming 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Deeper phasing out west on those solutions. Apparently phasing in the fast flow paradigm is only a problem for the east coast and not out west when we don’t want it. 

I'm beginning to wonder if the fast flow stuff with respect to phasing (or lack thereof I guess) is kind of voodoo. I've been thinking more of this lately since the exchange Ray and I had a few weeks back. I mean, first off, how are we defining or characterizing "fast flow"? I would guess a certain SD above the norm? I mean during the cold season the jet stream is strongest, so its already naturally fast.

[alex]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not a pattern though just a thaw week.  It's over enjoy the snow tonight tomorrow 

Whatever it is. In December a cloud would drop 4” of upslope. Now we have a disturbance coming through and get a dusting

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

No thanks. What f*ck good is that shit if it's not gonna snow.

We can relive January 1985?

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Work what's that.  My walker and I are becoming fast friends. New knee yesterday  

Congrats on the knees! Hopefully recovered in time to snowblow MLK Day

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm beginning to wonder if the fast flow stuff with respect to phasing (or lack thereof I guess) is kind of voodoo. I've been thinking more of this lately since the exchange Ray and I had a few weeks back. I mean, first off, how are we defining or characterizing "fast flow"? I would guess a certain SD above the norm? I mean during the cold season the jet stream is strongest, so its already naturally fast.

I don’t know if it’s voodoo or not. There might be some empirical evidence that supports I to a degree….but like most things in meteorology, I find the attribution of such variables to be overplayed/overrated in explaining our sensible wx. 
 

There’s always contradictions…like how we’ve been getting deeply phased troughs out west for several years recently….i guess that raging PAC jet didn’t have a problem phasing out there, but somehow it’s a problem further east where it’s further removed from the source? Yeah, that doesn’t pass the smell test. Same deal with previous claims of blocking being due to low sea ice in the arctic…that theory help up for about a year, lol. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

That system at the end of the euro op dropping snow below 0F is entertaining

Heh. That reminds me of 1/14-15 2004 where we had a synoptic snowfall a few degrees below 0F. Yakutsk dropped in behind it. 

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Nah--the ticks will survive.

Yeah you are probably right. Maybe a few dumb ones who are not dormant

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm beginning to wonder if the fast flow stuff with respect to phasing (or lack thereof I guess) is kind of voodoo. I've been thinking more of this lately since the exchange Ray and I had a few weeks back. I mean, first off, how are we defining or characterizing "fast flow"? I would guess a certain SD above the norm? I mean during the cold season the jet stream is strongest, so its already naturally fast.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We can relive January 1985?

I still think our favorite weekJan 25th - 30th is going to produce finally a big dog. PNA rises slight drop in NAO and EPO stays negative SST comes into olay.  So cold precip block ..

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t know if it’s voodoo or not. There might be some empirical evidence that supports I to a degree….but like most things in meteorology, I find the attribution of such variables to be overplayed/overrated in explaining our sensible wx. 
 

There’s always contradictions…like how we’ve been getting deeply phased troughs out west for several years recently….i guess that raging PAC jet didn’t have a problem phasing out there, but somehow it’s a problem further east where it’s further removed from the source? Yeah, that doesn’t pass the smell test. Same deal with previous claims of blocking being due to low sea ice in the arctic…that theory help up for about a year, lol. 

I think part of it is the behavior of the MJO deconstructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...but agree on over-attribution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I still think our favorite weekJan 25th - 30th is going to produce finally a big dog. PNA rises slight drop in NAO and EPO stays negative SST comes into olay.  So cold precip block ..

That is when it should be come better, as the MJO hits 7.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t know if it’s voodoo or not. There might be some empirical evidence that supports I to a degree….but like most things in meteorology, I find the attribution of such variables to be overplayed/overrated in explaining our sensible wx. 
 

There’s always contradictions…like how we’ve been getting deeply phased troughs out west for several years recently….i guess that raging PAC jet didn’t have a problem phasing out there, but somehow it’s a problem further east where it’s further removed from the source? Yeah, that doesn’t pass the smell test. Same deal with previous claims of blocking being due to low sea ice in the arctic…that theory help up for about a year, lol. 

Agreed 100%. I think its an interesting theory but needs alot more work. I do recall Tip having posting some studies before