January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Total same page as he is.

I hate to say it, but both you and tip could both be very hard-headed, and believe so strongly in what you're saying that neither one of you can see each other's points. You're both not wrong.... Just need to agree to disagree. Plus, you both kind of scare me anyway lol. ( Jk )

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I hate to say it, but both you and tip could both be very hard-headed, and believe so strongly in what you're saying that neither one of you can see each other's points. You're both not wrong.... Just need to agree to disagree. Plus, you both kind of scare me anyway lol. ( Jk )

I won't speak for him, but I def. can be....probably because I put so much time into this shit...it's tough to reconcile the fact that you can spend half of your life writing and researching, and still be wrong....I'm also so passionate about it, which is why I put so much time into it and formulate strong opinions on the material.

[codfishsnowman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Total same page as he is.

Well then both of you

[dendrite]

What a start to 2026

[Typhoon Tip]

There's a lot of these articles out there guys that discuss/elucidate the fast atmosphere we've been observing - these being papers that are scientifically researched and then adjudicated via the procedural accrediting.   

Here's a good one among many,   https://phys.org/news/2022-02-jet-stream-brought-storm-eunice.html    Phys.org is site the provides paraphrased renditions of the formal works.  They do sometimes op ed... but, when they are referencing they also provide links to the actual paper. 

"Jet stream that brought storm Eunice has been getting faster over last century

New research from the University of Southampton shows that the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic and Eurasia has increased its average speed by 8% to 132 miles per hour. The jet stream, which this week brought storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin to the UK, has also has moved northwards by up to 330 kilometers."

 

[metagraphica]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a lot of these articles out there guys that discuss/elucidate the fast atmosphere we've been observing - these being papers at that are scientifically researched and then adjudicated via the procedural accrediting.   

Here's a good one among many,   https://phys.org/news/2022-02-jet-stream-brought-storm-eunice.html    Phys.org is site the provides paraphrased renditions of the formal works.  They do sometimes op ed... but, when they are referencing they also provide links to the actual paper. 

"Jet stream that brought storm Eunice has been getting faster over last century

New research from the University of Southampton shows that the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic and Eurasia has increased its average speed by 8% to 132 miles per hour. The jet stream, which this week brought storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin to the UK, has also has moved northwards by up to 330 kilometers."

 

Phys.org is an excellent resource for those of us who aren't actual meteorologists or scientists.

[WinterWolf]

Ok…so how’s it looking past the mid month period?  35 degrees out there currently, and it feels real nice for a change.  

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I doubt it... I just hope the DPWs treat the roads

don't worry they will make sure they plow your ice 

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok…so how’s it looking past the mid month period?  35 degrees out there currently, and it feels real nice for a change.  

I really like the look after about 1/13-1/14. Details TBD but the longwave pattern finally seems more palatable for larger events. Hopefully it stays that way and doesn’t regress. 

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok…so how’s it looking past the mid month period?  35 degrees out there currently, and it feels real nice for a change.  

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a lot of these articles out there guys that discuss/elucidate the fast atmosphere we've been observing - these being papers at that are scientifically researched and then adjudicated via the procedural accrediting.   

Here's a good one among many,   https://phys.org/news/2022-02-jet-stream-brought-storm-eunice.html    Phys.org is site the provides paraphrased renditions of the formal works.  They do sometimes op ed... but, when they are referencing they also provide links to the actual paper. 

"Jet stream that brought storm Eunice has been getting faster over last century

New research from the University of Southampton shows that the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic and Eurasia has increased its average speed by 8% to 132 miles per hour. The jet stream, which this week brought storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin to the UK, has also has moved northwards by up to 330 kilometers."

 

I am curious (not doubting the validity of the findings), but how did they determine the jet stream speeds from 100 years ago?

[weatherwiz]

Not sure I agree with that post. If anything, much of those anomalies, particularly central states are probably driven moreso by overnight temperatures. But the pattern moving towards the 2nd and 3rd week of January is looking conducive for some coastal storm potential. I don't think that look has changed all that much over the past several days.

[weatherwiz]

Also those anomalies are probably heavily skewed from the few systems bringing brief anomalously warm temperatures through the midwestern states and even here potentially this weekend if that system does indeed cut like that

[Damage In Tolland]

That weekend system has trended so cold that much of NNE away from coasts ends up with net gain and ice while SNE relishes in cold rain 

[Kitz Craver]

12z model cinema is pretty meh

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I really like the look after about 1/13-1/14. Details TBD but the longwave pattern finally seems more palatable for larger events. Hopefully it stays that way and doesn’t regress. 

CMC's buckin for the 15th.... 

either way, that's a pig +PNA amplitude.  I'd be almost - if it were not for the last 10 years of oddities ruling the outcomes - be surprised if something didn't manifest during that period, because regardless of this Canadian run ( which is easy to do HAHA), that signal is very much still active in the index modalities

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

I have never been impressed by the BAM weather crew.  Lot's of bold talk about how it's "meteorology not modelology" then they flop around like a freshly caught mackerel with each new run.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure I agree with that post. If anything, much of those anomalies, particularly central states are probably driven moreso by overnight temperatures. But the pattern moving towards the 2nd and 3rd week of January is looking conducive for some coastal storm potential. I don't think that look has changed all that much over the past several days.

The irony is we trended much cooler in our little corner of the country in New England due to the CAD that’s dominating much of this week and during the weekend cutter. But it’s all mostly irrelevant anyway in terms of snowfall. We’re not expecting much in SNE between now and 1/15 anyway. 
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

12z model cinema is pretty meh

Agreed... snooze fest for a while... 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony is we trended much cooler in our little corner of the country in New England due to the CAD that’s dominating much of this week and during the weekend cutter. But it’s all mostly irrelevant anyway in terms of snowfall. We’re not expecting much in SNE between now and 1/15 anyway. 
 

I'm not even all that upset about this weekends cutter, that system is going to be a big player and setting up the pattern behind it for mid and late January. I want to see things hold through the remainder of the week and on weekend guidance before truly becoming excited but it's great to finally see a look which is more conducive for amplifying northern streams with some southern stream involvement. That 13th-15th period and 17th-19th period is very close to producing something 

[Ginx snewx]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was in DC so I don’t know the CT experience. We had all time collapses three weekends in a row in DC but the season turned around somewhat starting with an epic Arctic front 2/14/15. I’d rather someone see a historic stretch than no one. 

Whiners in CT about 2015? 106 inches who is whining? Look at those max depths state wide. Only whiners are those who constantly think they should JP in areas that rarely Jackpot 

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have never been impressed by the BAM weather crew.  Lot's of bold talk about how it's "meteorology not modelology" then they flop around like a freshly caught mackerel with each new run.

I've never followed their long-term forecasting. I do watch them for their severe weather stuff.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I am curious (not doubting the validity of the findings), but how did they determine the jet stream speeds from 100 years ago?

They use a process known as 'reanalysis'   - basically, taking what is physically known about the system, and then putting data that was empirical ( or very closely estimated to be consistent witth - ) and feeding that data to the mathematics.  The results paint a likeness that is 82 ... 91  ...99%tile of what was natural.   So, reanalysis is not always perfect, but if we are over even 60% in confidence/reconstruction, that is significant - and significance can the be tested against other data sets that are also related.   If two sources come back with similar results, that improves the confidence.  

They're indicating at the bottom of that article, "These findings are the result of a statistical analysis of the 250mb jet stream using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset."  In order to get more discrete than that would have to go to the source/server they are referencing, and delve into the paper's "methodology" section

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Whiners in CT about 2015? 106 inches who is whining? Look at those max depths state wide. Only whiners are those who constantly think they should JP in areas that rarely Jackpot 

I think when folks see totals in the 60s while BOS is 110 they feel cheated.  

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

12z model cinema is pretty meh

6z was Pete and repeat. 

 

[weatherwiz]

When you dig deeper into the model analysis it's a pretty encouraging look IMO and should have folks interests peaked. I get part of the "fun" is just whipping out SLP and snow maps to see something but you gotta look beyond those.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When you dig deeper into the model analysis it's a pretty encouraging look IMO and should have folks interests peaked. I get part of the "fun" is just whipping out SLP and snow maps to see something but you gotta look beyond those.

No

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Whiners in CT about 2015? 106 inches who is whining? Look at those max depths state wide. Only whiners are those who constantly think they should JP in areas that rarely Jackpot 

Yeah had over a Hundy here that winter 

[mahk_webstah]

GYX continues not interested in wintry south of foothills Saturday 

A cold front crosses the Friday night with high pressure building to
the north of the area Saturday. This high pressure will be in a
favorable position for cold air damming ahead of the next system
that approaches from the Great Lakes. The big forecast question at
this time is how much cold air can work back into the area before
precipitation likely breaks out by Saturday evening. Ensembles
generally agree that temperatures will remain above freezing across
southern NH and the coastal plain of Maine resulting in mostly rain
event for these areas into Sunday. From the foothills northward
precipitation types become more complex given the potential CAD and
several ensemble members suggesting a secondary low more form in the
Gulf of Maine. Have mainly stuck with the NBM which brings
mostly snow from the mountains northward, however it should be
noted that several ensemble members suggest that a change to
rain is possible well north of the Canadian Border. Across the
interior/foothills precipitation may waver between snow/mix/rain
depending on the development of a secondary low in the Gulf of
Maine. Precipitation tapers off Sunday afternoon with a shot of
much colder air building in to start the work week. The main
take away is that difficult travel will be possible Saturday
night through Sunday mainly from the foothills northward.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When you dig deeper into the model analysis it's a pretty encouraging look IMO and should have folks interests peaked. I get part of the "fun" is just whipping out SLP and snow maps to see something but you gotta look beyond those.

yeah, I see some boat missing by those making an "analysis" of these 12z guidance....    haha.

The Euro was really close .. really really close to going bonkers with that Jan 15 thing,  which was a massive step toward amplitude comparing the prior run.  The CMC also moved significantly toward a deeper +PNA with coastal implications heavily flirted. 

I dunno.  From this range?  I call that plenty to look at.