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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s also been early in the season too, working with December normals.

The same departures in February would be the real deal.

Yeah if you put up -5 or -6 weeks in mid to late January, you're likely talking below zero temps several occurrences at night even down in SNE. 

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Just getting caught up in the extended, I’m actually pleased with that look. Take a little southeast Ridge fighting that cold air from Canada with a negative EPO and Greenland Ridge. Also, the op runs are starting to show storms. The op runs are like an ensemble member… But when a pattern becomes favorable, you typically start to see the op runs showing some storms. We’re starting to see that which is good. One of the red flags I’ve noticed is that the op runs never show anything despite ensembles showing a favorable pattern. Kind of a red flag when that happens.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Weather underground has 1-3” tonight and 3-5” tomorrow night pretty bullish but I’m thinking more 3-5” total but we will see where the Mesos take us here at 18 and 0z

My p/c is super sucky.

Tonight
Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 13. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
Snow and freezing rain before 2am, then snow and sleet between 2am and 3am, then freezing rain after 3am. Low around 21. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday
Rain, snow, and freezing rain, becoming all rain after 10am, then gradually ending. High near 36. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

but that’s fake. 

A colder fake than the -24 they pulled in Dec. :lol:

But at some point fake starts feeling real. Like Mick Foley falling 20ft off the top of a steel cage. lol

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like once you get to -38 you get to rarified air. Or at least days of yore. There are a significant number of -40 lows in the olden days. 

The ASOS probably would’ve pulled -50 in those days. 

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33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A colder fake than the -24 they pulled in Dec. :lol:

But at some point fake starts feeling real. Like Mick Foley falling 20ft off the top of a steel cage. lol

The ASOS probably would’ve pulled -50 in those days. 

Yeah. When breathing causes ice to form on your face almost instantaneously, it’s damn cold.

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

My p/c is super sucky.

Tonight
Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 13. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
Snow and freezing rain before 2am, then snow and sleet between 2am and 3am, then freezing rain after 3am. Low around 21. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday
Rain, snow, and freezing rain, becoming all rain after 10am, then gradually ending. High near 36. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

He's more inland and that's close to what the NAM shows.

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