January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[steve392]

Nice crisp morning.  Accuweather shows either 1 or 7 degrees. 

[jm1220]

Down to 6. 

[nycsnow]

Euro AI looks good for some small/moderate events after the 6th

[ForestHillWx]

2 here; a few below zero readings nearby. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Euro AI looks good for some small/moderate events after the 6th

One of those could really dig and become a Miller B with the +PNA ridge still there. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

Current: the "-54" is -5 for Hackettstown and -4 for nearby Mount Olive.

[EastonSN+]

11 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Man, IDK. The more I look things over, the more I get the feeling winter is far from done with us and could be very far. Guidance is indicating a big time -AO developing at 500mb moving forward. My guess is some MJO influence in doing that. Meanwhile, here comes some real potential of a major strat PV disruption with the AO already negative. We're accustomed to a lag time of several weeks for the strat to affect the AO if at all. However, under these particular circumstances there is a possibility of basically zero lag time to see effects. If you split the vortex with an already -AO you could instead see it quickly coupling all the way through the column. Effectively prolonging and amplifying the already -AO in place, starting almost immediately. Its a possibility to do something like that this year... 

Block showing up on guidance.

 

[EastonSN+]

I cant recall the last winter that was below average temps all months AND relatively dry.

2014/15 cold snowy

2013/14 cold snowy 

2003/04 same

Maybe a year in the 1970s?