January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Rjay]

There's no such thing as a jinx in weather.  Thread started. 

[MANDA]

What are we thinking for ratios on this next storm?  

[Winterweatherlover]

Too tired from tracking the last one for this lol. These type of storms also drive me nuts to track because they usually disappear at some point on the models. It obviously has massive potential.

[MANDA]

Melted total for storm just completed 1.55".  Snowfall 13.5".  Storm averaged ratio 8.71/1.  Started out at 20:1 then fell as the event progressed.

Temperature never got above 10 degrees through the entire event.  Hopefully this puts an end to the "it is so cold ratios will be beyond words" stuff.   Cold surface temperatures are not the driving factor in ratios.  Look aloft.  

[Ridgewoodweather125]

What is timing roughly for this storm? Trying to figure out if a flight into EWR first thing Sunday morning still seems feasible if the storm does happen


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[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, Ridgewoodweather125 said:

What is timing roughly for this storm? Trying to figure out if a flight into EWR first thing Sunday morning still seems feasible if the storm does happen


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Saturday night into Sunday but it's 5-6 days away

[Ridgewoodweather125]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Saturday night into Sunday but it's 5-6 days away

Thank you; thinking I may book a flight late Saturday just as protection if it ends up being needed 

[EasternLI]

57 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There's no such thing as a jinx in weather.  Thread started. 

Nice! Rjay threads are usually good luck too lol 

[WeatherGeek2025]

50 minutes ago, MANDA said:

What are we thinking for ratios on this next storm?  

15:1

[North and West]

Cue the obligatory Kylo Ren "More" GIF.  Although N&W may want to hold it until later in the week with the model runs.
 
 

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[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Saturday night into Sunday but it's 5-6 days away

Shoot, Sunday is February.  Sun angle is definitely going to play a role in this one.

[Mr. T.]

Been a pretty long time since I've seen a possible benchmark setup. I'm down for it!

Edit: keep forgetting we have a thread for this threat now.

[Nutjob18]

Upton with 20- 30 percent chance of 6 inches or more

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDOKX&e=202601261832

Deterministic and ensemble models show a piece of energy breaking 
off the polar vortex and shifting into the Southeast this weekend 
before lifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This would then help 
develop a surface low emerging off the Carolina coast during 
Saturday and strengthen the storm as it heads northeast, perhaps 
approaching the 40N/70W benchmark at some point Sunday or Sunday 
night.

Did not deviate from NBM PoPs (20-30%) from Saturday night through 
Sunday night. Too early to have much confidence with the probability 
of occurrence and certainly with any details of the storm this many 
days away. With that said, NBM shows a 20-30% chance of at least 6 
inches of snow across the area for the event. Additionally, there is 
at least moderate to high confidence that temperatures would be cold 
enough to support snow at the start of the event.

[hooralph]

WOW