January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Insane to potentially stay below freezing for this long at NYC. It’s in fact more if you include the past few days. What’s the record?

I don't know. Maybe @donsutherland1 or @bluewave

[MJO812]

6z eps more west with coastal

[ForestHillWx]

Near perfect run with the high anchoring in to prevent this cutting inland too much. Long way to go, but damn, the pieces are on the board. 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is just offshore 

just like it was a complete miss south several days before yesterdays MECS

[Snowshack]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has below 0 temps for Friday morning for many areas . Also euro doesnt get above freezing for highs through February 9th.

Amazing how the last few years made us think stretches like this might be a thing of the past.  

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Amazing how the last few years made us think stretches like this might be a thing of the past.  

didn't make all of us think that way I kept questioning that theory by posting this:

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

many yearly stretches of below normal snowfall than normal to way above returns

[IrishRob17]

41 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Burial if this thing goes off. What's out there now isn't going anywhere. Might have to fire up the snowpack thread this year.

I have a very dense 16" at the stake this morning. 

[NorthShoreWx]

40 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Insane to potentially stay below freezing for this long at NYC. It’s in fact more if you include the past few days. What’s the record?

Record is 16 days in Jan - Feb 1961

[NorthShoreWx]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I have a very dense 16" at the stake this morning. 

I have an intelligent 11"

[UncleSalty]

Renowned Meteorologist Judson Jones chimes in.

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I don't know. Maybe @donsutherland1 or @bluewave

16 consecutive days (January 19-February 3, 1961).

[North and West]

Would be an absolute KU bomb.   Show this to me Wednesday night and I'll take the bait. 

Agreed. It’s going to change.


.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, UncleSalty said:

Renowned Meteorologist Judson Jones chimes in.

For those wondering about the location in Larchmont, the photo was taken on North Chatsworth Avenue looking toward Myrtle Boulevard (traffic light).

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

16 consecutive days (January 19-February 3, 1961).

What are the chances we break this record in your opinion? We’ve already been below freezing since Saturday. 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

What are the chances we break this record in your opinion? We’ve already been below freezing since Saturday. 

It will be a close call. A few days in early February could approach or reach freezing. Model skill that far out is low so the range of error is fairly high.

[BxEngine]

Ill take the over on saturdays temps, knyc will hit freezing then.

 

edit: theyll come close today too i think.

[dseagull]

25 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Ill take the over on saturdays temps, knyc will hit freezing then.

 

edit: theyll come close today too i think.

Snowpack will help.  Radiational cooling on cloudless nights will help. Low ceiling cloud cover will work against the city though.  I don't envy those who attempt to figure out urban heat outputs. Wayyy too dynamic.  In any case, this is a winter-lover's paradise thd next 10 days or more. 

[mob1]

Holy crap at the Euro, just wow!

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Holy crap at the Euro, just wow!

If they're right then this weekend was just an appetizer 

That's 2'+ type potential that the Euro showed 

[SACRUS]

 

22 / 20  snow/sleet amounted to a concrete of 11-11.5 deep and its being cleared in phases.   Cold - cold - cold till old man winter takes the cold away  - not likely till after valentines day.   Cold to hold peaking this week and then again perhaps by or between the 9-12.  Storm tracking engaged for the 1/31 / 2/1 - 2/3 period as latest forecats close the trough off and steer coastal NE, and perhaps several days later. Sub freezing stretch only looks to be challenged briefly 2/3 but will see pending on track.  Otherwise temps near 0 inland / below further NW and metro/city and coastal sections sigle digits enhanced by the ice / snow cover.  In what appears to be a pattern right out of a weather board snow lovers novel 1/25 - 2/14 seems to be.  Now it'll have to keep delivering each chapter.

 

1/26 - 2/13 : Overall cold - much below avg 
1/31 or 2/1 - 2/2 : Storm threat

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

just like it was a complete miss south several days before yesterdays MECS

Yeah I trust the GFS the least at this point. Would like to see the CMC come around though.

[SACRUS]

ecords:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1950) *monthly Jan high
NYC: 72(1950)  * tied monthly Jan high Jan 6 (07)
LGA: 72 (1950)
JFK: 69 (1950)


Lows:

EWR: 4 (1994)
NYC: 2 (1871)
LGA: 5 (1994)
JFK: 9 (2007)

 

Historical:

1698: The Charlestown to Boston, MA ferry was frozen for six weeks in the most severe winter of the 17th century. Heavy February snows followed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1700 - A powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Northwest along the Cascadia Subduction zone. The estimated moment magnitude of 8.7-9.2 caused about a 1,000-kilometer rupture from mid-Vancouver Island to northern California. The ocean floor heaved upward approximately 20 feet, and with 10-20 minutes, a giant wave, 30-40 feet high, reached the shore. The earthquake caused a tsunami, which struck the coast of Japan.

1772 - Possibly the greatest snowfall ever recorded in the Washington DC area started on this day. When the storm began, Thomas Jefferson was returning home from his honeymoon with his new bride, Martha Wayles Skelton. The newlyweds made it to within eight miles of Monticello before having to abandon their carriage in the deep snow. Both finished the ride on horseback in the blinding snow. The newlyweds arrived home late on the night of January 26th. In Jefferson's "Garden Book," he wrote, "the deepest snow we have ever seen. In Albermarle, it was about 3. F. deep."

1839: A storm brought rains, thaw, and floods to the area from eastern Pennsylvania to Maine and heavy snows from western Pennsylvania to northern Kentucky. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1843: A destructive tornado hit a factory in Pottsville, PA, killing many people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1937: The wettest month ever in Cincinnati, Ohio, is January 1937, when 13.68 inches fell. Their average January amount is 3.00 inches of precipitation. The overabundance of precipitation over the Ohio River basin caused near-record to record flooding in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky. On this day, the river gauge reached 80 feet in Cincinnati, the highest level in the city's history. The Ohio River reached 57 feet in Louisville, Kentucky, on the 27th, setting a new record by ten feet. Seventy percent of the city was underwater at that time. 

1938: Perhaps the worst ice jam of record in the Niagara River gorge occurred at Niagara Falls, NY. Ice flows pouring over the falls, piled up to a height of more than 30 feet, 60 to 70 feet in spots. The tremendous pressure of the ice against the steel supports of the Falls View Bridge caused them to bend or break off. The abutments of the bridge were so weakened after more than 24 hours of battering that the great structure fell into the gorge at 4:13pm of the 27th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Information is Listed On This Link)

1940: Alabama and the Deep South were in the grips of a deep freeze. The official reading at the Birmingham City weather office in Alabama was 1°. The airport reading, the official location now, was -10°. Skaters were able to skate on the frozen surface of the Black Warrior River west of Birmingham, where ice was 6 inches thick near the banks. The cold followed on the heels of a 10-inch snowfall on the 23rd. The low temperature at Cheyenne, WY was -6°. This was the last of 10 consecutive days with a daily low temperature below zero which still stands as their longest streak ever recorded. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1948: The minimum temperature for the date is +5°F. in Washington, DC. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)


1950: Maximum was 79° the all time record high maximum for January in Washington, DC. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
High pressure off the Carolina coast brought a second day of record high temperatures from Texas to New England. Many locations set record high temperatures for January including: Meridian, MS: 83°-Tied, Washington, DC: 79 °F, Baltimore, MD: 79°-Tied, Wilmington, DE: 75°, Philadelphia, PA: 74°, Newark, NJ: 74°, Harrisburg, PA: 73°-Tied, Allentown, PA: 72°, New York (Central Park), NY: 72°-Tied, New York (LaGuardia), NY: 72°-Tied, Boston, MA: 72° (the only time on record Boston has been above 70° in January), Milton, MA: 68° and Worcester, MA: 67°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1961: A six inch snowfall took place today in Washington, DC which further enhances the snowy winter conditions of 1961. (p. 73 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)

1966: The second storm in a series occurred today and produced heavy snows south and east of Washington. Richmond received 15 inches of snow and much of the southern and eastern Maryland received 10 to 17 inches. National Airport reported 7.5 inches andDulles reported 6 inches of snow. (p. 76 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967: On the 26th and 27th Chicago Illinois was blanketed by 23 inches of snow, it's single heaviest snow of record. Its three major airports were closed; an estimated 20,000 cars and 500 buses were stranded on city streets. Some of the plowed snow was sent to Florida in railroad cars. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)
Twenty-nine hours after it started, the unprepared city of Chicago was buried under twenty-three inches of snow. Winds gusted to fifty mph, creating whiteout conditions and drifts up to twelve feet high. Thousands of cars and buses were abandoned by their drivers all over the city, making the job of plowing the streets nearly impossible. It still stands as Chicago's greatest snowstorm.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1977: Four days of very strong winds occurred from the 26th through the 29th across the northern Plains with a strong low pressure area over western Ontario Canada. Strong northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts over 60 mph caused widespread blowing and drifting snow with most roads closed with many traffic accidents in parts of South Dakota. The winds combined with subzero temperatures to create wind chills of -60° to -80°. Many schools were closed for several days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1978 - A paralyzing blizzard struck the Midwest. One to three feet of snow fell in Michigan, and 20 to 40 inches was reported across Indiana. Winds reached 70 mph in Michigan, and gusted above 100 mph in Ohio. The high winds produced snow drifts twenty feet high in Michigan and Indiana stranding thousands on the interstate highways. Temperatures in Ohio dropped from the 40s to near zero during the storm. (David Ludlum)

1982: Residents across the Northern Plains were still cleaning up from the third consecutive weekend of severe winter weather. On January 22nd through the 24th, a record breaking snowstorm struck much of South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. Amounts across South Dakota ranged from 6 to 20 inches. The heaviest snow, at Elk Point, was accompanied by a rare January thunderstorm. Sub-zero temperatures across the area combined with 30 to 50 mph winds to produce wind chill values of -50° to -80°. Travel became impossible in the height of the storm as over 90% of roads in central and eastern South Dakota were blocked. Snow plows couldn't make any headway until the storm had passed. Drifts up to 15 to 20 feet buried the area. Sioux City, IA piled up 18 inches of snow as all roads in northwest Iowa were closed on the 22nd. Conditions were no better in Minnesota. Minneapolis set, what up to that point was, a single storm snowfall record with 18.5 inches. Incredibly, the record that this storm broke had just been set two days earlier when 17.4 inches buried the Twin Cities. That's nearly 36 inches of new snow in just over three days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983 - The California coast was battered by a storm which produced record high tides, thirty-two foot waves, and mudslides, causing millions of dollars damage. The storm then moved east and dumped four feet of snow on Lake Tahoe. (22nd-29th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast States, with 18 inches reported at Vineland NJ, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Chatham MA. Snow cover in Virginia ranged up to thirty inches following this second major storm in just one week. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A snowstorm in the northeastern U.S. produced 19 inches at Austerlitz NY and Stillwater NY. A storm in the Great Lakes Region left 16.5 inches at Marquette MI, for a total of 43 inches in six days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and high winds created blizzard-like conditions in northwestern Vermont. Winds at Saint Albins gusted to 88 mph. In Alaska, the town of Cold Foot (located north of Fairbanks) reported a morning low of 75 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm spread high winds from the northwestern U.S. to Wyoming and Colorado, with heavy snow in some of the high elevations. Stevens Pass WA received 17 inches of snow, half of which fell in four hours. In extreme northwest Wyoming, Togwotee Mountain Lodge received 24 inches of snow. Winds in Colorado gusted to 90 mph at Rollinsville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1996: A strong winter storm moved northeast from Iowa and blanketed much of the southwest and central Wisconsin with 10 to 18 inches of snow. The heaviest snow occurred along a 100 mile axis centered from La Crosse northeast toward Fort McCoy and further into northeast Wisconsin. An isolated report of 18 inches was reported 6 miles east of La Crosse and the La Crosse Regional Airport received 12 inches. Blizzard conditions existed during the height of the storm that left drifts 4 to 8 feet high. Travel was nearly impossible. The snow lingered into the early morning hours of the 27th. Green Bay, WI reported 15.3 inches. The 13.7 inches at Des Moines, IA was the city's biggest snowstorm in nearly 23 years. 13 inches of snow fell in 24 hours at La Crosse, WI, the city's greatest 24 hour snowfall total ever in January. Madison, WI record 8 inches of snow in just two hours. Thunderstorms spawned by the same storm system deluged Birmingham, AL with 4.71 inches of rain, their greatest daily January rainfall on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: The temperature finally went above freezing at New York City, NY for the first time in 12 days as the temperature rose to a high of 34° in Central Park. The streak of sub-freezing temperatures tied for 3rd longest in New York City history. Despite the very cold temperatures during the streak, no daily records were broken. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2011: New York continues to have a brutal winter. The Big Apple was walloped with 19 inches. Philly had 17 inches. Parts of Northern Connecticut had 16-19 inches. Here’s how severe this winter has been: Before yesterday’s storm, Hartford had already recorded its snowiest January on record and those records go back over 100 years. Hartford's old record was 43 inches for January. (Ref. More on the Record Breaking Snows In New England and Hartford CT)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If they're right then this weekend was just an appetizer 

That's 2'+ type potential that the Euro showed 

The 144 panel on the euro is absurd weather porn for nyc metro.  1 inch QPF in 6 hours with ripping wind.  Madness if that verifies. 

[SACRUS]

meanwhile in real time weather some snow showers/ swualls

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

While it looks good, I go back to what is always said, you don’t wanna be in the good zone this far out. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

While it looks good, I go back to what is always said, you don’t wanna be in the good zone this far out. 

we have the GFS for that