January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[SACRUS]

11 / 8 - snow (about 2.9 on the ground).  Cold / snow / mix later.  Cold - frigid week with overall cold below - much below avg.  Some moderation between 2/3 - 2/6 before cold returns.  If the 1994 like pattern continues - would expect another bout of snow/ice in the next 7-9 days.

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Don,

I think we will see our coldest (60% non-stat based) NYC CP temp since 2019 of 1 or 2 above between Wed-Sat.  Your odds?  

I am seeing MOS and 2M temps missing too warm on mins NYC.  I use GFS/EC 2M blend for the countryside low, but typically those models dont handle the urban very well. In this case, now that we have so much fresh snow on the ground... it should be relatively easy to get down to near zero in the city on one of these nights. Noting MOS errors  significantly too warm for the city the past two mornings. 

Your stats-impressions on this possibility?

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 59 (2024)
NYC: 60 (1967)
LGA: 57 (2024)
JFK: 55 (2024)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1935)
NYC: 2 (1945)
LGA: 2 (1945)
JFK: 5 (1961)

 

Historical:

 

1821 - The Hudson River was frozen solid during the midst of the coldest winter in forty-one years. Thousands of persons crossed the ice from New York City to New Jersey, and refreshment taverns were set up in the middle of the river to warm pedestrians. (David Ludlum)

1837 - At 7 PM a display of the Northern Lights danced above Burlington, VT. Its light was equal to the full moon. Snow and other objects reflecting the light were deeply tinged with a blood red hue. Blue, yellow and white streamers were also noted. (The Weather Channel)

 

1937: Las Vegas, Nevada dropped to 8 degrees above zero, setting a record low for the city.

 

1949: Las Vegas, Nevada, recorded 4.7 inches of snow. This brought the monthly snowfall total to 16.7 inches which still ranks as their snowiest month on record

1965 - Alta, UT, was in the midst of a storm that left the town buried under 105 inches of snow establishing a record for the state. (David Ludlum)

1987 - The second major storm in three days hit the Eastern Seaboard producing up to 15 inches of snow in Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Up to 30 inches of snow covered the ground in Virginia following the two storms. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - High winds created blizzard conditions in the mountains of Colorado. Winds gusted to 109 mph at Echo Lake, and a wind gust to 193 mph was reported atop Mount Evans. A "nor'easter" moving up the Atlantic Coast spread heavy snow from the Carolinas to New England, with as much as 16 inches reported in the Poconos of eastern Pennsylvania. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air, coming down from Alaska, settled over the Northern Rockies. Wilson WY reported a morning low of 48 degrees below zero. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. One thunderstorm in north central Texas spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Troy. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Low pressure developed explosively over east central Missouri and moved into Lower Michigan producing high winds and heavy snow across parts of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. Wind gusts to 60 mph and up to a foot of snow created near blizzard conditions in southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Wind gusts in Indiana reached 76 mph at Wabash. Thunderstorms associated with the storm produced wind gusts to 54 mph at Fort Madison IA. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2000 - Heavy snow fell from the Carolinas to New England, with up to 20 inches of snow and five deaths reported. (NCDC)

Jan 25, 2000: 5.6 inches of snowfall (combo of mix / dry slotted kept totals down)  Other areas 6 - 12 inches, more north and the mid atlantic

[bluewave]

The EPS-AIFS forecast for the system next weekend is to track just offshore as it looks like the ridge-trough axis is currently forecast to be a little too far east.

It’s indicating that the we may see a mean retrogression in the 500mb height field in early February. So the next system closer to the 6th is currently forecast to be closer to the coast.  

We’ll see how this goes since the longer range Euro AI models did a great job with today’s winter storm. The regular Euro and GFS suites were too suppressed. Plus the AIFS single and ensembles are the new highest scoring models. 

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

[brooklynwx99]

yeah, we have seen this signal grow since yesterday

[EastonSN+]

[eduggs]

The ECMWF-AIFS Ens not withstanding, it looks like we're back to an all-northern stream "pattern." It's a shame we can't get another southern stream wave to turn the corner. Looks cold and dry.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS-AIFS forecast for the system next weekend is to track just offshore as it looks like the ridge-trough axis is currently forecast to be a little too far east.

It’s indicating that the we may see a mean retrogression in the 500mb height field in early February. So the next system closer to the 6th is currently forecast to be closer to the coast.  

We’ll see how this goes since the longer range Euro AI models did a great job with today’s winter storm. The regular Euro and GFS suites were too suppressed. Plus the AIFS single and ensembles are the new highest scoring models. 

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

ALSO,  AI modeling basic benefit is for patterns... the global's are for physics higher res etc. 

[MJO812]

Eps shows snow for feb 3

[LoboLeader1]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

The ECMWF-AIFS Ens not withstanding, it looks like we're back to an all-northern stream "pattern." It's a shame we can't get another southern stream wave to turn the corner. Looks cold and dry.

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2026 
 
The February 2026 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of a La Niña 
Advisory and the potential emergence of an enhanced Madden Julian Oscillation 
(MJO) signal. La Niña conditions are present but are likely (75 percent 
chance) to transition to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral phase 
during the current January-February-March (JFM) season. The latest weekly Niño 
3.4 index was at -0.8 degrees Celsius, which is still in La Niña territory. 
However, at depth, a pool of warmer than normal water has been steadily 
expanding eastward from the western Pacific, consistent with a potential 
transition to ENSO neutral conditions. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the 
real-time multivariate MJO index has been increasing in recent days in the 
Western Pacific. By the start of February, most of the European Centre for 
Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble members predict this emerging 
MJO event to propagate to the Western Hemisphere/Africa or the Indian Ocean. 
Recent analysis of extratropical indices show that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) 
and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been mostly negative in early 
January (although both have trended closer to zero in the past few days). The 
Pacific North America (PNA) index has transitioned from the negative to the 
positive phase during the first half of January. Combined natural analog 
composites derived from the recent evolution of these tropical (ENSO and MJO) 
and extratropical (AO, NAO, and PNA) drivers depict a 500-hPa flow pattern 
dominated by anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific, off the west 
coast of North America. Downstream troughing is favored over the west-central 
CONUS while above normal heights are more likely across the Southeast. Weakly 
below normal heights are favored across the western Bering Sea. This combined 
natural analog composite is remarkably similar to trends  during the last 15 
years, which also favor increased ridging across the northeastern Pacific and 
the Southeast, and below normal heights over the northern tier of the 
west-central CONUS. Natural analog composites, trends , and dynamical guidance 
from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), North American Multi-Model 
Ensemble (NMME), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the 
Forecast Consolidation Tool (CON) (which includes both dynamical model input 
and statistical guidance) form the basis of the February outlooks. The latest 
CPC Weeks 3-4 Outlooks and associated ensemble guidance from the ECMWF, Global 
Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and the CFSv2 also contributed. Antecedent 
conditions such as extratropical SSTs, sea ice extent, and snow cover anomalies 
were also considered where appropriate. 
 
Statistical guidance is supportive of potential widespread anomalous cold air 
outbreaks across much of the Lower 48 states during February. However, 
dynamical model guidance is much warmer, particularly across the southern 
two-thirds of the CONUS. This dichotomy between the colder statistical and 
warmer dynamical model guidance results in increased uncertainty in the 
February temperature outlook. However, given the strong agreement between 
recent trends , ENSO, MJO, and extratropical analogs  on the potential for 
anomalous cold across much of the northern and central CONUS, below normal 
temperatures are favored for much of these regions. The greatest confidence for 
below normal temperatures (40 to 50 percent chance) is indicated for the 
Northern High Plains, where statistical guidance shows the strongest signal. 
Conversely, statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in 
favoring above normal temperatures across the southeastern CONUS, with 
probabilities of warmer than normal conditions exceeding 50 percent across the 
Florida Peninsula. A second, but weaker, area of enhanced above normal 
temperature probabilities is posted for parts of the Southwest and Southern 
California due primarily to dynamical model guidance. Above normal SSTs off the 
west coast of the CONUS may also assist in increasing chances of above normal 
temperatures for coastal locations of Southern California. Enhanced 
probabilities of above normal temperatures were kept weak for this region as 
statistical guidance is much less supportive of increased warmth relative to 
dynamical model guidance. Above normal temperatures are favored across western 
Alaska due to very good support from statistical guidance. However, dynamical 
model support is relatively weak, so probabilities of above normal temperatures 
are only modestly increased. Conversely, below normal temperatures are weakly 
favored for most of Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern 
Mainland, consistent with C3S model output with some support from natural 
analog composites (especially across Southeast Alaska). 
 
Although the current La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO neutral at some 
point during JFM 2026, statistical and dynamical model precipitation guidance 
still generally reflect a La Niña signature for the month of February. Above 
normal precipitation is favored from the Northern Rockies, Northern High 
Plains, and parts of the Pacific Northwest southeastward to northern portions 
of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. The greatest likelihood of 
above normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent chance) is indicated across 
parts of the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, where both statistical 
and dynamical model guidance is in good agreement. A second region where above 
normal precipitation is favored is the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, adjacent areas 
of the interior Northeast, and the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, 
consistent with La Niña Composites as well as with dynamical model guidance, 
especially the C3S. Typical of La Niña, below normal precipitation is more 
likely across the southwestern and southeastern CONUS. The forecast favoring 
drier than normal weather across these two regions has good dynamical model 
support from the NMME. Above normal precipitation is favored for all of western 
Alaska. Dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in depicting increased 
chances of above normal precipitation across northwestern Alaska while 
statistical guidance generally supports an extension of this signal southward 
to southwestern Alaska. Conversely, a tilt of probabilities toward below normal 
precipitation is indicated for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the 
southeastern Mainland due primarily to dynamical model support, especially from 
the C3S.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, eduggs said:

The ECMWF-AIFS Ens not withstanding, it looks like we're back to an all-northern stream "pattern." It's a shame we can't get another southern stream wave to turn the corner. Looks cold and dry.

Check 12z

[Wxoutlooksblog]

39 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2026 
 
The February 2026 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of a La Niña 
Advisory and the potential emergence of an enhanced Madden Julian Oscillation 
(MJO) signal. La Niña conditions are present but are likely (75 percent 
chance) to transition to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral phase 
during the current January-February-March (JFM) season. The latest weekly Niño 
3.4 index was at -0.8 degrees Celsius, which is still in La Niña territory. 
However, at depth, a pool of warmer than normal water has been steadily 
expanding eastward from the western Pacific, consistent with a potential 
transition to ENSO neutral conditions. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the 
real-time multivariate MJO index has been increasing in recent days in the 
Western Pacific. By the start of February, most of the European Centre for 
Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble members predict this emerging 
MJO event to propagate to the Western Hemisphere/Africa or the Indian Ocean. 
Recent analysis of extratropical indices show that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) 
and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been mostly negative in early 
January (although both have trended closer to zero in the past few days). The 
Pacific North America (PNA) index has transitioned from the negative to the 
positive phase during the first half of January. Combined natural analog 
composites derived from the recent evolution of these tropical (ENSO and MJO) 
and extratropical (AO, NAO, and PNA) drivers depict a 500-hPa flow pattern 
dominated by anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific, off the west 
coast of North America. Downstream troughing is favored over the west-central 
CONUS while above normal heights are more likely across the Southeast. Weakly 
below normal heights are favored across the western Bering Sea. This combined 
natural analog composite is remarkably similar to trends  during the last 15 
years, which also favor increased ridging across the northeastern Pacific and 
the Southeast, and below normal heights over the northern tier of the 
west-central CONUS. Natural analog composites, trends , and dynamical guidance 
from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), North American Multi-Model 
Ensemble (NMME), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the 
Forecast Consolidation Tool (CON) (which includes both dynamical model input 
and statistical guidance) form the basis of the February outlooks. The latest 
CPC Weeks 3-4 Outlooks and associated ensemble guidance from the ECMWF, Global 
Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and the CFSv2 also contributed. Antecedent 
conditions such as extratropical SSTs, sea ice extent, and snow cover anomalies 
were also considered where appropriate. 
 
Statistical guidance is supportive of potential widespread anomalous cold air 
outbreaks across much of the Lower 48 states during February. However, 
dynamical model guidance is much warmer, particularly across the southern 
two-thirds of the CONUS. This dichotomy between the colder statistical and 
warmer dynamical model guidance results in increased uncertainty in the 
February temperature outlook. However, given the strong agreement between 
recent trends , ENSO, MJO, and extratropical analogs  on the potential for 
anomalous cold across much of the northern and central CONUS, below normal 
temperatures are favored for much of these regions. The greatest confidence for 
below normal temperatures (40 to 50 percent chance) is indicated for the 
Northern High Plains, where statistical guidance shows the strongest signal. 
Conversely, statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in 
favoring above normal temperatures across the southeastern CONUS, with 
probabilities of warmer than normal conditions exceeding 50 percent across the 
Florida Peninsula. A second, but weaker, area of enhanced above normal 
temperature probabilities is posted for parts of the Southwest and Southern 
California due primarily to dynamical model guidance. Above normal SSTs off the 
west coast of the CONUS may also assist in increasing chances of above normal 
temperatures for coastal locations of Southern California. Enhanced 
probabilities of above normal temperatures were kept weak for this region as 
statistical guidance is much less supportive of increased warmth relative to 
dynamical model guidance. Above normal temperatures are favored across western 
Alaska due to very good support from statistical guidance. However, dynamical 
model support is relatively weak, so probabilities of above normal temperatures 
are only modestly increased. Conversely, below normal temperatures are weakly 
favored for most of Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern 
Mainland, consistent with C3S model output with some support from natural 
analog composites (especially across Southeast Alaska). 
 
Although the current La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO neutral at some 
point during JFM 2026, statistical and dynamical model precipitation guidance 
still generally reflect a La Niña signature for the month of February. Above 
normal precipitation is favored from the Northern Rockies, Northern High 
Plains, and parts of the Pacific Northwest southeastward to northern portions 
of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. The greatest likelihood of 
above normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent chance) is indicated across 
parts of the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, where both statistical 
and dynamical model guidance is in good agreement. A second region where above 
normal precipitation is favored is the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, adjacent areas 
of the interior Northeast, and the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, 
consistent with La Niña Composites as well as with dynamical model guidance, 
especially the C3S. Typical of La Niña, below normal precipitation is more 
likely across the southwestern and southeastern CONUS. The forecast favoring 
drier than normal weather across these two regions has good dynamical model 
support from the NMME. Above normal precipitation is favored for all of western 
Alaska. Dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in depicting increased 
chances of above normal precipitation across northwestern Alaska while 
statistical guidance generally supports an extension of this signal southward 
to southwestern Alaska. Conversely, a tilt of probabilities toward below normal 
precipitation is indicated for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the 
southeastern Mainland due primarily to dynamical model support, especially from 
the C3S.

I'm not yet convinced we are going back to an all northern stream based pattern though we might temporarily. In the long run for February I think there will be a semi active subtropical jet and that we get at least one or two southern stream or phase-up storm systems up our way.

WX/PT

[Stormlover74]

The euro is like -6 Friday morning

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The euro is like -6 Friday morning

And Thursday

[eduggs]

The hi-res NAM is showing several hours of light snow tomorrow morning - with light accumulations. Couple inches up the HV but even something down to NYC and LI. Not much support from other guidance but it would be an enjoyable ending.

[donsutherland1]

New York City is experiencing its biggest winter storm in nearly five years. Through 4 pm, 8.8" had fallen in Central Park. 1 W Throgs Neck Bridge in the Bronx has so far had the City's highest amount at 11.3". 

The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. 

Arctic air will return to the region as the storm departs tomorrow. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Friday. Tuesday could again see highs top out in the teens in New York City. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on or more days during this period. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was -14.36 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.614 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.5° (3.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.