hooralph Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just your average 960 low moving from s of LI to Cape Cod... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 19 minutes ago, hooralph said: Just your average 960 low moving from s of LI to Cape Cod... Got the Kuchera???? And only 246 hours away. What are we thinking for ratios? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Looks like March 12, 1888. Good luck with that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Huge Black spots on the sun with coronal ejections have actually impacted our weather globally. Cold and snow have been wide spread in areas that barely see cold and snow. Also the discussion of the overdue "little ice age" are being heard again. Not saying we are entering a period of global cooling but.. it's a little overdue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Temperature dropping fast, down to 24, about 10 degrees in past 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Temperature down to 12 here. 8:40 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Temperature down to 12 here. 8:40 p.m. You might hit negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 hours ago, hooralph said: Just your average 960 low moving from s of LI to Cape Cod... 20" here and 0 in Montauk. Let's goooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 there is a sinister orange crescent moon setting on the western horizon. it is a bad omen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14F and dropping, It’s brutal outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: 14F and dropping, It’s brutal outside. gotta be the coldest night of the year because of the wind, i'm sure next week temps wise it'll get colder but it won't be as windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: gotta be the coldest night of the year because of the wind, i'm sure next week temps wise it'll get colder but it won't be as windy Usually the winds cap the actual temps from tanking and we would suffer from the wind chill but the actual temperature is tanking and add on the wind chill its nasty. Could be worse we could be in Minneapolis. -45 to -60 wind chills. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 hours ago, MANDA said: Got the Kuchera???? And only 246 hours away. What are we thinking for ratios? 36:3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10:55 and 5 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Down to 15. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Down to 12 - breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 here as well; looks like the sub-zero readings are in NePA headed this way. The colds coming in from the northwest, as opposed to due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 16 hours ago, lee59 said: I realize everyone is focused on this weekends storm and for good reason, but the cold could be more historic. NYC has a possibility of breaking the longest streak of below 32 temperatures. Also looks like January will be the coldest in at least 10 years. That would be greater than the streak of 16 days in 1961 (Streak ended during a 17" snowstorm on February 4). NYC will need to stay <32 through 2/9 to break that record. Sidenote: from the February 3-4, 1961 storm on the north shore of LI: https://www.northshorewx.com/19610204.html Addendum: The woman in the doorway is my mom. The girl is my cousin. Before my time. Paul Kocin used this photo in a slide show he gave at an old EUSWX conference. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Central Park for the first time in 1084 days has a temperature below ten degrees. Fourth all time longest streak and one day from third all time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 degrees. Could be hopium on my part, but I tend to think the models aren’t factoring in the extent of this airmass, even at the upper levels; time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Man oh man. If you're a fan of winter the latest ensemble runs are for you. For your viewing pleasure, here's the entire 00z GEFS loop this time (EPS on the same page btw)... Check out what's going on as we start to move into February. Pay special attention to the TPV and the arctic. Notice how it splits into 2 main lobes with ridging increasingly overspreading the pole? With one of them landing in Hudson Bay stretching into eastern Canada. Back in the beginning of this thread I'd posted the precursor pattern to a Strat Split. Which occurs ~2 weeks prior to said events. Subtle changes in the hemispheric layout over the last week have resulted in a damn good match of that. Happening this weekend. The Sunday event is a part of that and fits right in that look. Then take a look at what is going on higher up in the Strat in about 2 weeks time. Ensembles are increasingly beginning to latch on to the idea of a PV split up above. Again, the EPS is doing this too. That is happening in conjunction with an increasingly -AO in the troposphere and a cold pattern already established. Probably worth mentioning that we currently have an amplified MJO passage through the Pacific in progress as well. On it's way to the Western Hemisphere. Which are correlated to these kinds of events also. Over the years, through reading various different sources on Strat events and ramifications. There was something to look for if you were hoping for it to be beneficial to your locale. That is an already cold pattern prior to and during a split. Which we also do look to have should this go off. So like I was saying yesterday... LFG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Not far from -40 in n WI and below -40 in n.e. Ontario, in fact below -30 F west of Ottawa. This storm is going to be feeding off an inflow of extremely cold air at least for its first portions. The ratios in the snow first sampled at Dodge City KS look like 19:1 (3.4" from 0.18" liquid). That may drop off a bit as the storm adds Gulf moisture to the Pacific moisture it started with, but that's a good sign for amounts with first portion of the snowfall tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The one of the earliest stratospheric polar vortex disruptions back in late November has been a big player this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The stratosphere has really been driving the pattern to a large degree since late November. Yeah, that event was quite important. In retrospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The one of the earliest stratospheric polar vortex disruptions back in late November has been a big player this winter. And there's another one coming if this guy is right https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-stratospheric-warming-february-2026-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, that event was quite important. In retrospect. 7 minutes ago, gravitylover said: And there's another one coming if this guy is right https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-stratospheric-warming-february-2026-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ The initial event back in late November was possibly caused by an interaction between the record low Arctic Sea ice and the -QBO. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JD044403 one model, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, has a statistically significant equatorward shift in vortex latitude, deceleration of vortex winds, and increase in sudden stratospheric warmings. Its response is found to be highly state-dependent, significant only in the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Though we cannot comprehensively conclude why models simulate this range of responses, our analysis does highlight areas for consideration in future work to better constrain the stratospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss. We explore the role of ensemble size, resolution and basic state, including zonal-mean winds in the polar and midlatitude stratosphere and upper troposphere, as well as the QBO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: Man oh man. If you're a fan of winter the latest ensemble runs are for you. For your viewing pleasure, here's the entire 00z GEFS loop this time (EPS on the same page btw)... Check out what's going on as we start to move into February. Pay special attention to the TPV and the arctic. Notice how it splits into 2 main lobes with ridging increasingly overspreading the pole? With one of them landing in Hudson Bay stretching into eastern Canada. Back in the beginning of this thread I'd posted the precursor pattern to a Strat Split. Which occurs ~2 weeks prior to said events. Subtle changes in the hemispheric layout over the last week have resulted in a damn good match of that. Happening this weekend. The Sunday event is a part of that and fits right in that look. Then take a look at what is going on higher up in the Strat in about 2 weeks time. Ensembles are increasingly beginning to latch on to the idea of a PV split up above. Again, the EPS is doing this too. That is happening in conjunction with an increasingly -AO in the troposphere and a cold pattern already established. Probably worth mentioning that we currently have an amplified MJO passage through the Pacific in progress as well. On it's way to the Western Hemisphere. Which are correlated to these kinds of events also. Over the years, through reading various different sources on Strat events and ramifications. There was something to look for if you were hoping for it to be beneficial to your locale. That is an already cold pattern prior to and during a split. Which we also do look to have should this go off. So like I was saying yesterday... LFG! Thanks. I hope nothing worse than cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Spending the weekend here in the Berkshires, currently -5 here, 9 above back home in HPN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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