January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Winterweatherlover]

4 hours ago, wxman said:

Indeed!  Would not be surprised...despite everyone saying "it's different" with this type of setup.

I did say sleet was possible.  Rain would be extremely unlikely imo in this setup.

[SACRUS]

 

Recent coldest at EWR last 25 years:  Bolded 5 and below

 

[bluewave]

The raw Euro 2m Ts have been running too cold around NYC. It forecast around 11° this morning in NYC. The current temperature is 17°.  The raw GFS has been doing better than the Euro. 
 

So my guess is that the forecast Euro lows especially around the urban areas from EWR to NYC will be too cold coming up. So closer to 10° this weekend in NYC vs near 0° on the Euro. 

For some reason the model thinks that NYC should have strong radiational cooling when there is snowcover. We saw this in the past from the OP Euro 2m Ts showing -5° to -10° several years back in. NYC with snow on the ground.

But outlying areas with the best radiational cooling will probably be closer to the mark than the urban areas forecast.

 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it. 

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it. 

@The 4 Seasons25.2”

[EasternLI]

6z gfs just threw it's hat in with this cluster from the euro weeklies from yesterday. Interesting winter we have going on here. Let's see how we go. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Clear. +7.7F

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Clear. +7.7F

That was my low, 8 now. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

That was my low, 8 now. 

We'll both be flirting with 0 tonight. 

[sussexcountyobs]

18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it. 

27.5" thus far in Vernon Twsp.  @ Canistear Reservoir 

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it. 

18”, Southern side of Commack NY

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The raw Euro 2m Ts have been running too cold around NYC. It forecast around 11° this morning in NYC. The current temperature is 17°.  The raw GFS has been doing better than the Euro. 
 

So my guess is that the forecast Euro lows especially around the urban areas from EWR to NYC will be too cold coming up. So closer to 10° this weekend in NYC vs near 0° on the Euro. 

For some reason the model thinks that NYC should have strong radiational cooling when there is snowcover. We saw this in the past from the OP Euro 2m Ts showing -5° to -10° several years back in. NYC with snow on the ground.

But outlying areas with the best radiational cooling will probably be closer to the mark than the urban areas forecast.

 

 

It will be colder with a snowpack

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies continue this wintry pattern into March.

[binbisso]

48 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it. 

15.5" mt vernon ny. Westchester County 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It will be colder with a snowpack

 

My guess is that NYC will be closer to 10° this weekend with the 0° readings in the outlying colder areas similar to the NDFD.

 

 

[SACRUS]

15 / 1 off a low of 10 here.  Overall cold to much below normal the next 11 days or through the 31st / 1st.  Coldest days look to be 1/24-1/25 - perhaps temps at or sub 20 all day then single digit low (coldest since 2019 perhaps) , then again 1/28 - 1/30.  The much talked WAA / overrunning and potential secondary developent later Sat (1/24) - Sun (1/25) and into Mon (1/26) and perhaps Tue (1/27 long duration event.   Hints at additional energy clipper or southern in the 1/31 period.  Beyond there moderation back towards / above normal.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (2006)
NYC: 62 (1951)
LGA: 61 (2006)
JFK: 56 (2013)

Lows:

EWR: -3 (1985)
NYC: 0 (1994)
LGA: 0 (1994)
JFK: 3 (1994)

 

Historical:

1606: 2,000 people died around the Severn Estuary as the result of severe flooding along the Severn River in England. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1852: The temperature fell to 20 °F in Jacksonville, Florida and 22 °F in St. Augustine, Florida. (Ref. Early American Winters Vol. II 1821-1870 by David M. Ludlum pp. 109 - 110)

1863: The famous "Mud March" begins in the Fredericksburg area of Virginia. 

1883: Yuma, Arizona, sets its all-time record low of 22 degrees. The record is tied in 1911 and again in 1937.

1917: 16 inches of snow falls in the Twin Cities, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1933: The greatest snowfall officially fell at Phoenix, AZ reaching one inch. Four years to the day later, another snowfall of one inch fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1937 - The wettest Inaugural Day of record with 1.77 inches of rain in 24 hours. Temperatures were only in the 30s as Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworm in for his second term. (David Ludlum)

1933: Phoenix, Arizona, receives light snow between 7:55 pm and 9:25 pm

1937 - The wettest Inaugural Day of record with 1.77 inches of rain in 24 hours. Temperatures were only in the 30s as Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworm in for his second term. (David Ludlum)

1943 - Strange vertical antics took place in the Black Hills of South Dakota. While the temperature at Deadwood was a frigid 16 degrees below zero, the town of Lead, just a mile and a half away, but 600 feet higher in elevation, reported a balmy 52 degree reading. (David Ludlum)

1943: Strange vertical temperature antics took place in the Black Hills of South Dakota. While the temperature at Deadwood was a frigid 16 degrees below zero, the town of Lead, just a mile and a half away, but 600 feet higher in elevation, reported a balmy 52 degree reading. (David Ludlum)

1951: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 70°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1954 - The temperature at Rogers Pass, MT, plunged to 70 degrees below zero to establish a new record for the continental U.S. (David Ludlum)


1961: The "Kennedy Inaugural snowstorm" belted the mid-Atlantic and New England states. Up to 29 inches of snow fell in northern New Jersey and southeastern New York. Areas north and west of Boston, MA received over two feet. This was the 2nd of three major snowstorms during the 1960-61 winter season across the northeastern U.S. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1978 - A paralyzing "Nor'easter" produced a record 21 inches of snow at Boston, 15 to 20 inches in Rhode Island, and one to two feet of snow in Pennsylvania. Winds along the coast of Connecticut gusted to 70 mph. (David Ludlum)

1982: Just over 17 inches of snow fell in the Twin Cities, MN. Amazingly, this record was to be outdone within two days. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1984: An Arctic cold wave in the east through the 22nd claimed 42 lives across 14 states. One of the coldest readings was -40° at Minong, WI. Subzero readings were measured from the Rockies to New England. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1985: The minimum temperature for the date is -2 °F. in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
A major Arctic outbreak brought extreme cold to much of the central and eastern U.S. Many all time record lows were set, including: Chicago, IL -27° (daytime high of -4 with a wind chill as low as -77°), Nashville, TN -16° (broken the next day), Asheville, NC -13° (broken the next day) and Raleigh/Durham, NC -3° (broken the next day). Even New Orleans was in the deep freeze with a low of 15°. Fort Wayne, INrecorded their coldest overall day, with a high of -11° and a low of -22°. South Bend, IN set their coldest January high temperature, at -6°. Quincy, IL set their January record low with -21°. St. Louis & Columbia, MO recorded their all-time coldest wind chill readings of -48°& -44°. Residents in Birmingham, AL woke up to an inch of snow on the ground and temperatures in the deep freeze. Readings remained in the single digits all day. The high temperature at Muscle Shoals in the northern part of Alabama never got above 0° that day. The extreme cold actually caused television cable wires to shrink, resulting in service disruptions across the state of Virginia.=(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1987 - Gale force winds lingered along the northern Atlantic coast in the wake of a holiday weekend storm. High winds along the eastern slopes of the Northern Rockies gusted to 67 mph at Livingston MT, and high winds in southern California gusted to 70 mph near San Bernardino. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the Upper Midwest produced heavy snow and gale force winds. Up to 27.5 inches of snow was reported along the Lake Superior shoreline of Michigan, with 22 inches at Marquette. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - The temperature in the Washington D.C. area warmed into the lower 50s for the Presidential Inauguration during the late morning hours, before gusty northwest winds ushered in colder air that afternoon. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - While heavy thunderstorm rains drenched the Central Gulf Coast States, with 4.23 inches reported at Centreville AL in 24 hours, unseasonably warm weather continued across Florida. Five cities in Florida reported record high temperatures for the date. Tampa FL equalled their record high for January of 85 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1993: A fast moving 980-millibar storm (28.94 inches of mercury) produced high winds across the Pacific Northwest. A wind gust to 64 mph occurred at the Sea-tac airport in Seattle, WA; their 2nd highest wind gust ever recorded at that location. Winds gusted to near 100 mph at the mouth of the Columbia River. Over 750,000 people in the vicinity of Puget Sound lost power. Damage was severe, with 79 homes destroyed and 581 suffering major damage. In Oregon, wind gusts hit 89 mph at Netarts and 86 mph at Cape Blanco. The storm caused $130 million dollars in damage.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Heavy rains across Louisiana caused flooding. Nearly eleven inches fell in Lafayette, LA along with nine inches in Baton Rouge.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: Relentless lake effect snow squalls dumped nearly 60 inches of snow at Adams, NY in only 17 hours The three day snowfall total in the town exceeded 100 inches, one of the greatest lake effect snowfall totals ever recorded. Frigid conditions persisted over the northeastern U.S. Rangeley, ME was the cold spot in the nation with a temperature of -45°. First Connecticut Lake, NH dropped to -44°. South Bend, IN completed its longest stretch of sub-zero weather at 64 hours. Both Pittsburgh, PA and Cleveland, OH also completed their longest stretch of subzero readings on record, with 52 and 56 consecutive hours, respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Very cold conditions over the Northeast: Cleveland, OH and Pittsburgh, PA ended their longest continuous subzero periods with fifty-two and fifty-six hours respectively. Temperature bottomed out at -45 °F at Rangeley, ME. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: A winter storm moved across northern Illinois during the afternoon and evening hours, continuing into early the next morning. A band of very heavy snow fell across northeast Illinois across Kane County, southeast McHenry County, northwest Cook County, and most of Lake County. Snowfall amounts in this band ranged from 10 to 12 inches. Outside of this heavy band, snow amounts ranged from 6 to 9 inches, but snowfall amounts tapered off quickly across south central DuPage and south central Cook Counties, with those areas receiving 3 to 5 inches. Some of the largest snowfall amounts included 12 inches at Elgin, 11.7 inches at Grayslake, 11.5 inches at Shabbona, 11 inches at Barrington, and 9 inches at Paw Paw. Northwest parts of the state saw ice accumulations around a quarter inch, enhanced by thunderstorms. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[BxEngine]

19.2” valley cottage/nyack. 
 

i think. Gotta check when i get home but pretty sure thats right. 

[STORMANLI]

16 hours ago, rclab said:

Good evening v e . At almost 79 and being alone for the last eight years …… there will always be another weather event but there may never be another her. Insure your flight, as always……

Well said Mr. rclab, a philosophical response, one I echo. Went through my 12th holiday season without my wife- not competing with you rclab;just the way it is- and there will almost certainly be more snow, even if you have to go find it. But Mr.vegan_edible, finding true love a lot more difficult. Coulda shoulder woulda can place you in a world of regret. Side note-could you get her a plane ticket to you?  Envision this-a snowy scene with a crackling fire and the woman you love-what could be better than this?  Pray and hope that you make the right choice-for both of you. And now back to the weather..

[wthrmn654]

Only got to 20 last night. 

[ForestHillWx]

It’s 12 right now;  touched 8 this morning at dawn. 

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it. 

21.1" here for the season.

[MANDA]

21 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

It’s 12 right now;  touched 8 this morning at dawn. 

Low of 9 here.

Lots of blowing snow around here yesterday afternoon into the overnight.