OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm

[BoulderWX]

At this rate even the NAM will be too high for MBY LOL - will be tough to hit 2/3” at this rate 

[SnowenOutThere]

Switched back to snow sleet and the Long Island radar shows the snow line collapsing south… 

[Intensewind002]

Barely snowing here in Lindenhurst, eyeing maybe 1.5" on the ground so far

[BxEngine]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Well mt holly doesnt cover north of nyc

This is the nyc metro area discussion forum. Not the mount holly discussion. I am specifically discussing how just because the nam nailed one area and completely failed in another doesnt mean its worth any more weight than another model that failed here and nailed down there. That argument literally makes no sense and its just pessimistic nonsense by people who are (rightfully) upset ahout their snow not happening.

[hooralph]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

It ain't hard to drive in snow. Good tires and a few brain cells are all you need

It’s VERY slippery. I almost just wiped out in the crosswalk wearing hiking boots.

[eduggs]

30 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Epic bust for them..why did they double down

The event is not over. And bust is harsh because snow forecasts are always difficult.

That said, I'm not sure what people were looking at. NAM and ECM signaled the northeast shift with the mid-level lows north of Lake Ontario and surface low into WNY. Then the HRRR continuing to trend right to go time made it clear. It should have been pretty obvious unless you were willfully deluding yourself.

[ILoveWinter]

Steady snow in the UWS, a bit of sleet mixed in at times 

[Krs4Lfe]

Snowing moderately to heavily here in Bayside, Queens. Mesoscale discussion mentions rates of 1-2” per hour. We definitely have that now, but sleet is on NYC’s doorstep. Certainly wasn’t supposed to sleet this early. Congrats to the Nam, we could have actually hit 8” if it snowed like this for most of the night. I’d cut totals in half at this rate. Reminds me of the early February 2025 storm where NYC and Long Island got 3-6” but it was a sleet and ice storm in New Jersey. Gfs lol 

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, eduggs said:

The event is not over. And bust is harsh because snow forecasts are always difficult.

That said, I'm not sure what people were looking at. NAM and ECM signaled the northeast shift with the mid-level lows north of Lake Ontario and surface low into WNY. Then the HRRR continuing to trend right to go time made it clear. It should have been pretty obvious unless you were willfully deluding yourself.

True but even the least snowy model run gave NYC 3 or so inches so anything less than that is truly an epic bust.

[EasternLI]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

These snow bands just keep building in Suffolk. Snow hasn’t really slackened off much. 

Yeah, radar is sweet.

[Krs4Lfe]

Last time NYC did better than Suffolk was 2/1/21, where we got 18-20” but LI mixed for a lot of the storm and got like 12.” Aside from that, they always seem to win. Still very pretty outside regardless. Id expect up to 10” in mid Hudson valley, they always jackpot too 

[Brasiluvsnow]

12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

 

I have over 2”. Of snow. The 18z said id have nothing yet. Thats my point. 

Yep and the roads around here are horrible,,,,,,,,

[psv88]

Just now, EasternLI said:

Yeah, radar is sweet.

About to get crushed here. Heavy snow in eastern Nassau moving in 

[kat5hurricane]

Sleet mixed in here now with the rates lightening up a bit, not a great sign for us in and near the city. Those of you on Long Island are going to cash in nicely.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

True but even the least snowy model run gave NYC 3 or so inches so anything less than that is truly an epic bust.

I'd expect most of NYC to still reach 3 inches. 

[EastonSN+]

Sleet line on Coefficient stops the sleet line right before crossing Jersey to Westchester. It LOOKS like the sleet line is moving South in Northern NJ

[nycwinter]

hearing sleet here in upper manhattan lol..

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Last time NYC did better than Suffolk was 2/1/21, where we got 18-20” but LI mixed for a lot of the storm and got like 12.” Aside from that, they always seem to win. Still very pretty outside regardless. Id expect up to 10” in mid Hudson valley, they always jackpot too 

LI is also further north than NYC once you get into Suffolk. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

This is the nyc metro area discussion forum. Not the mount holly discussion. I am specifically discussing how just because the nam nailed one area and completely failed in another doesnt mean its worth any more weight than another model that failed here and nailed down there. That argument literally makes no sense and its just pessimistic nonsense by people who are (rightfully) upset ahout their snow not happening.

The nam is a blind squirrel that does find an acorn every now and then with mid level warmth. It's also wrong most of the time with everything else hence why it is being replaced. It had me at 2 inches at this time and I have 5. 

[Snowlover11]

That dry slot in northern pa/ny border is massive this thing is in and out by 1-2am if it doesn’t fill in.

[BxEngine]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

The nam is a blind squirrel that does find an acorn every now and then with mid level warmth. It's also wrong most of the time with everything else hence why it is being replaced. It had me at 2 inches at this time and I have 5. 

The nam definitely still does better in the mid levels than most of our other options, and shouldnt be ignored. But its a huge fail north of where that warm push initially made it to. 

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Last time NYC did better than Suffolk was 2/1/21, where we got 18-20” but LI mixed for a lot of the storm and got like 12.” Aside from that, they always seem to win. Still very pretty outside regardless. Id expect up to 10” in mid Hudson valley, they always jackpot too 

gone are the days where long island was the worst place for snow compared to the city.. due to ocean breeze bringing in milder air..

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

About to get crushed here. Heavy snow in eastern Nassau moving in 

Massapequa 

[nycwinter]

on numerous occasion the nam is spot on when sniffing out that warm nose...

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'd expect most of NYC to still reach 3 inches. 

Easily reach 3 of snow/sleet mix IMO.

[wthrmn654]

NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-179-270130-
Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Western
Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Passaic-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern
Queens-Southern Queens-Bronx-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten
Is.)-Southern Nassau-
632 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

632 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

...SNOW AND SLEET LIKLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

At 617 PM EST, an area of moderate snow and sleet is working into
the area, and is likely to continue over the next few hours. If
sleet mixing persists this will likely result in total snowfall
amounts falling below 6 inches in this area.

Nonetheless, road conditions will deteriorate rapidly this evening
with temperatures well below freezing. Be prepared for difficult
travel due to low visibilities, and snow and sleet covered roads.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Jersey City, Jamaica, Paterson, Elizabeth, Flatbush,
Flushing, Passaic, Bayonne, Mott Haven, Hoboken, Plainfield,
Bloomfield, Hackensack, and Linden.

SAFETY INFO...Travel is not recommended this evening. If travel is
necessary, slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

&&

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

gone are the days where long island was the worst place for snow compared to the city.. due to ocean breeze bringing in milder air..

I disagree.  The northern suburbs will always be snowy overall than the coast. 

[EastonSN+]

So the sleet line is definitely dropping south according to coefficient. Midtown Manhattan could be back to all snow soon.

[Superstorm]

on numerous occasion the nam is spot on when sniffing out that warm nose...

Whenever I see the NAM show that warm nose, I always give it respect. It does a good job in sniffing that out.

As far as accumulation amounts, it sucks.


.

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The event is not over. And bust is harsh because snow forecasts are always difficult.

That said, I'm not sure what people were looking at. NAM and ECM signaled the northeast shift with the mid-level lows north of Lake Ontario and surface low into WNY. Then the HRRR continuing to trend right to go time made it clear. It should have been pretty obvious unless you were willfully deluding yourself.

Well its because they upped the amounts imby to 4-7 inches imby this afternoon